I recommend being very careful about using Mediazona datas to come to these conclusions - not because it’s unreliable, but in general graphs based on the date of death rather than on the date of publication, although very interesting for research purposes, underestimate truly a lot the number of those who have died in action in the recent weeks (but also months), because of the time lag in which obituaries are published, particularly for those who are classified as MIA for a long time. A part of the KIA notices are pulled out through the work of volunteers who visit cemeteries and take photos, from the monuments, etc. And not every obituary has a date of death.

If we go to the Mediazona website, the week of July 20-26, 2023 shows 404 deaths. Using Web Archive, as of the September 1, 2023 snapshot, only 103 deaths had been recorded as having fallen during that week! The fact that February 2024 is already so high today, despite being barely two months away, is a sign that in a year from now it will likely be even higher than January/February 2023. A very good proxy is the number of losses recorded by the Telegram channel “Poisk in UA”. Over the last 3 months, it has never fallen below 700 fatalities per week (let’s note that the Wagnerites that are now discovered as KIA are no longer counted separately, and there is also the - hardly significant - category of POWs). It should be also noted that at the time Bakhmut most likely accounted for a higher % of total Russian deaths in Ukraine than Avdiivka did in the recent months (because back in the time most sectors were somewhat quiet compared to today), but the data suggests us that Avdiivka in terms of losses/day was, and is, presumably close to the Bakhmut campaign. And not only that: the length of the period marked by such high losses is very impressive, and losses have never been as high as in 2024. Doing some “napkin math” (accounting for the time lag, the share of deaths that go undetected, and those listed as missing), an amount of 7/800 recorded deaths per week should be consistent with between 250 and 300 KIAs + MIAs per day, not counting the other types of irretrievable losses.

(the only way to get out of the UAF is by becoming a casualty)

By turning 60, by having to become a caregiver of a family member who has developed an illness or disease etc, too. I agree, however, that it’s uncontroversial that the ratio, as an average from the beginning of the invasion, is considerably less favorable to Ukraine than the one cited by Zelensky.