I recommend this interview by openDemocracy with a sergeant and a private of the newly formed 41st Mechanized Brigade as well as with Reynolds from RUSI. The article repeats what we have read over and over again in the recent weeks. An interesting part is about training in NATO countries being constrained by safety concerns and an attempt at combined arms training being carried out in Ukraine by Ukrainian trainers. Probably the only battalions to have received some combined arms training in the West are those fielding Bradleys or Strykers. The brigade is made up of mobilized - so no news on this subject. They have been trained in the Western countries with the typical 5-weeks basic and concentrated course. I think then we have to add to that the combined arms training in Ukraine. The Achilles' heel of the training is demining.

Another point is the presence of this brigade, or at least a battalion from it, in the second line near Kupyansk. This would confirm what u/offogredux had written a few days ago, i.e. that there were battalions of the new 41/43/44th Mech Brigades deployed in the rear between Kupyansk and Kreminna, in addition to the 42nd Brigade that we know has been reported in the Kreminna sector for weeks. In recent weeks in particular, the Kupyansk sector has received very large amount of reserves. Rybar also recently reported units of the 68th Jager Brigade being active around Karmazynivka, near Svatove, in the sector of the 66th Mech Brigade that had been affected by the Russian advance of July 20/21 that was later contained. As usual, take his words with a pinch of salt - there is no official confirmation. In the first weeks of the offensive in the South the 68th was very important in clearing territory in the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River - it would be strange for the Ukrainians to have pulled out a brigade from the most promising front of the offensive - but then again it must be said that very recently the 38th Marine Brigade was seen in action in the sector where the 68th Brigade was active.

Yesterday I had written that the number of Ukrainian troops between Kupyansk and Kreminna had probably almost doubled compared to 3 months ago, but I might even have been a bit too restrained. It has to be said there are rumors that elements of the 21st Mech Brigade and a battalion of the 67th Brigade may have been transferred to the northern sector of Bakhmut from that of Kreminna. Which could be good news because it might mean that the Ukrainians consider the Russians as not so dangerous in that specific sector, arguably the quietest right now among the three main directions. I remain convinced that there are more Ukrainian troops concentrated around those directions than between Kamyanske and Velyka Novosilka, despite a considerable portion of them being from second-rate mechanized brigades or TDF.

Ukraine still has reserves in the South that were not touched.

Agree. For what we know currently only one battalion per brigade, likely equipped with Soviet stuff, might be deployed among the new 4*th brigades, while the others could still be training (44th Brigade is supposed to receive Leo 1A5s and Rosomaks). It makes sense for them to be deployed firstly in defensive purposes to acclimatize to the war. That’s what we thought in the months before the counteroffensive anyway, when new brigades were expected to relieve veteran ones in defensive sectors. It’s still too early to make judgments anyway.

It’s simply an implicit rule of the UAF; it should not be seen as evidence that the Ukrainians are having unsustainable losses all along the frontlines (I’m not saying they aren’t having heavy losses though). Until a brigade has completely (or almost) lost its operational efficiency, that is, usually, after having accumulated such attrition rates after several months of fighting, it’s not withdrawn for rotation. That’s the standard basically.

Let’s recall that Ukrainians had already evacuated children and the disabled from this area back in early March. In recent weeks Russian efforts have become more serious, so I imagine they have switched to a total evacuation both to protect civilians and to send in other areas a potential pro-Russian minority that might snitch Ukrainian positions to the Russians. Just like they did in Avdiivka.

Thanks for the update and the mention! I too have heard that Syinkivka is holding at the moment. The reinforced Ukrainian grouping in Kupyansk is doing its best, they are being attacked by elements of the 1st Tank Army and the entire 6th Army; the 11th Corps is also in the area as an operational reserve.

In Bakhmut the Russians brought really a lot of reserves and that is what explains the stability of the lines, but that has hindered in a very relevant way their efforts in Kreminna, Avdiivka and Marinka. Your updates on Robotyne are interesting, let’s hope for the best. In Urozhayne it’s mainly the 38th Marine Brigade which is attacking afaik, this brigade has just come into action in the sector… The Russians have reportedly retreated to the central and southern area of the village and their numerous counterattacks have failed. In the village, according to the Ukrainians, the 5th Army has sent elements of the 218th Tank Regiment (which was deployed in the second line) to help their battered 60th Motorized Brigade. On Novodonetske I am optimistic too. Pryyutne will be a bit more complicated. Although the Russians are now preparing to withdraw on the Remivka - Volodyne - Staromlynivka - Kermenchyk line. It’s clear they are going to fight tooth and nail for every meter. For the Polohy area, the Ukrainians are likely to await moves by the 35th Army before probing it imho. Whether the Russians will resist the temptation to send elements of this formation elsewhere remains to be seen…

Thank you for the comment. Unfortunately even though the Ukrainians should hold high ground northeast of Robotyne, the terrain between Robotyne and Verbove is not particularly favorable and advancing is difficult.

As for the Velyka Novosilka sector I am pretty sure I was the one who mentioned that line last month! I was quoting the Centre for Defence Strategies.

I was wrong about Novodonetske, I “gotta hand it” to the Russians. I was skeptical they would have pulled back on that line by late July, but I was very upbeat that Novodonetske would have fallen within the past week. Mainly because of the fact that the density of Russian forces in that area is smaller than in the rest of the sector, the fact that Kermenchyk is much more defensible being situated on heights, and the opinion of some Ukrainian analysts who still take it for granted that the 36th Army is not going to touch the 5th Tank Brigade at all for the actions in Novodonetske, i.e. the formation currently in the rear and deputed to the defense of Kermenchyk together with the 131st Regiment of the 1st Corps…

In any case I would have expected such settlement to fall before Urozhayne. Although according to the Ukrainians the 60th Brigade in Urozhayne is in worse shape than the 37th in Novodonetske. I’ve read today from Mashovets that a battalion of the 125th Brigade (1st Corps) has been deployed in Novodonetske to assist the 37th, which means they have clearly casualties, although at the moment the village is holding out. It’s likely that the Russians want to keep holding out until the forces in the village are completely depleted or until the Ukrainians get dangerously close to the road between Novodonetske and Kermenchyk.

Probably the little recent Ukrainian progress can be explained by the operational pause between late July and early August, which may have been caused by the potential deployment to the Svatove sector of units of the 68th Jager Brigade from the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly (if confirmed of course - we have no actual evidence at the present) and the possible withdrawal due to losses of the 23rd Mech from the western bank (also to be confirmed). For the Ukrainians, however, several groups of the Russian 305th Artillery Brigade have been withdrawn due to losses from counter-battery fire. This brigade fields very heavy calibers, e.g. 203mm howitzers and 240mm mortars.