New quick update on the order of battle of the offensive operations in Kursk Oblast, after yesterday’s.
On the Ukrainian side, there is still no official confirmation regarding the involvement of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, but the evidence does speak in favor of that, as these two posts suggest.
As for the 80th Air Assault Brigade, we had already seen yesterday that there was an official confirmation. Today I found two obituaries of soldiers from this brigade who died in Sumy Oblast (likely Kursk) on August 6 and 7. That might have been the main unit that led the offensive actions in the first day.
There is still no official confirmation for the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, but this post is quite telling (note how it refers to its 12th Company, of the 3rd Battalion). Also, this brigade has recently been equipped with Cougar MRAPs (in addition to Strykers, also used by the 80th Brigade, and Marders).
Today a video was released, showing soldiers from the 99th Mech Battalion of the 61st Mech Brigade in the western outskirts of Sudzha.
Let’s recall that this brigade suffered very heavy losses west of Avdiivka between late February and March. After that, it was withdrawn and sent to Kharkiv Oblast to build fortifications while it regained combat capability. Last month elements of this brigade were attached to the 72nd Mech Brigade to face Russian attacks in the direction of Vodiane (north-east of Vuhledar), but evidently other elements are participating in the offensive operations in Kursk Oblast. Nice OpSec by the Ukrainians, by the way - there was no evidence that the 61st Mech Brigade might be involved. In any case, when we talk about brigades, we are talking about elements, generally.
This afternoon this photo had come out, released by the “Bravo Team”, which should be a detachment of the 130th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion.
https://t.me/BRAVO_Team_chanel/55
There is also presence of units of the Alpha Group of the SBU. In contrast, there is no evidence of the involvement of units of the HUR (this does not mean at all that they could not be there!).
“Khorne Group” - the UAV unit of the 116th Mech Brigade - is definitely involved in the operations, but there is no evidence yet to know if the rest of the brigade is involved too. In any case, the presence of elements from numerous brigades is potentially a sign that this operation is of a certain size and importance, in scope and purpose.
The 103rd TDF Brigade seems to be involved in the actions, as highlighted by this post. They are probably the ones consolidating the positions the others have gained. There are units that are advancing and those that are dealing with tasks in the rear, as highlighted here.
https://t.me/officer_alex33/3440
Reinforcements continue to flow into the Pokrovsk sector as well. In addition to those we had seen in the last few days, it also appears that the 35th Regiment of the National Guard, which was covering the border in Sumy Oblast, has been moved there. In their FB page today they posted that the regiment is now fighting in the Pokrovsk sector, and a soldier from this unit was taken prisoner by stormtroopers of the 74th Motorized Brigade (41st CAA) in Ivanivka, claiming that he arrived in early August from Sumy. Some Russian channels have tried to pass off the video as the capture of an Ukrainian soldier in Kursk Oblast.
As for the Russians, in addition to the units mentioned yesterday, there should also be a battalion of the Motorized Regiment of the Aerospace Forces (a new unit), which was covering the border in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources had also reported the arrival, a few weeks ago, of sailors from the Northern Fleet, which were supposed to cover the border with Sumy Oblast but instead participated in the failed assaults on Sotnytskyi Kozachok.
Russian sources report the transfer to Kursk of the Assault and Recon Brigade “Hispaniola” of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps, from the Chasiv Yar sector (actually a reinforced battalion, like the rest of the brigades of this corps), along with the “Rusich” Group. It is also reported that the “Pyatnashka” Brigade (actually a battalion) is already involved in the fighting, as are the units of the “Akhmat Special Forces” that arrived as reinforcements.
https://t.me/vdv_za_chestnost_spravedlivost/3515
There was a big controversy in Russian media after Kadyrovites kidnapped a Russian conscript and forced him to apologize for saying that these were hiding behind conscripts (something claimed by a lot of Russian sources). They did a quite similar thing with the milblogger Romanov a month ago.
The first MIA notices are coming out. Here we can see two, involving conscripts from the 488th Motorized Regiment (144th Motorized Division, 20th CAA). There is no evidence that the rest of the regiment, engaged in the Lyman sector, is in the area.
https://t.me/poisk_in_ua/71184
https://i.imgur.com/xznxNng.png
In the 3 days leading up to the beginning of the offensive operations, a Russian POW from the FSB reported massive Ukrainian drone and artillery activity, which caused major losses to the conscripts.
https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/18303
This news is not verified, but a woman who left her village (Guevo, south of Sudhza), reports 120 conscripts KIAs around the village area.
With the arrival of these reinforcements, it’s likely that the Russians will be able to stabilize the situation, but it remains to be seen what’s their plan in order to regain the ground that has been lost.
Moreover, it appears that the Russians, in addition to the transfer of units from the “SMO” area that we saw yesterday and today, are also transferring conscripts from other areas of Russia. Being the battles within legit Russian territory, there are no restrictions on their use. In this video, a volunteer fighting in the “SMO” complains that his brother, as part of a group of 90 conscripts from the 1st Tank Regiment (2nd Motorized Division, 1st GTA), is being transferred to Kursk Oblast, despite having fired just 3 times overall during training and having a brother already fighting.
https://t.me/ne_zhdi_novosti/659
The second one. I don’t know if they volunteered, though, or if it was done on a forcibly way.
Good points, although I personally would not focus too much on the vehicles themselves but rather on the combat readiness of the military unit.
As for the 37th Marine Brigade, I believe that only one battalion of theirs is in the Velyka Novosilka sector (on the western bank of the Mokri Yaly), while the rest of the brigade should be in Kherson Oblast, likely recovering full combat capabilities after Krynky.
I really don’t think the 33rd Mechanized Brigade has a way to be involved in these actions, or even the 25th Airborne Brigade (at most a battalion? I don’t know - they are fighting around Karlivka, anyway). I doubt they have full readiness levels to participate in offensive operations and/or the terrain they hold is very important, same goes for the other brigades of the Air Assault Forces. That said I don’t know the actual Ukrainian intentions regarding this whole matter.
Training for contract soldiers is generally very short, but at least it’s very intense, and almost always it’s people who already know how to operate assault rifles; they are taught to storm trenches, a bit of urban combat etc. Training for most of conscripts is probably the classic visit at the shooting range once in a while. I don’t know about the Chinese model.
They can also be sent to military units in other regions, especially if they come from regions where the population exceeds the density of military units.
Thanks; I had found a post on Facebook associating this brigade with the Kursk direction yesterday, this is additional evidence.
I am nevertheless of the opinion that it may be either a company that was in the rear or in reserve, or a battalion very recently brought in Kursk Oblast from Toretsk. I have been investigating, but so far I have not been able to figure out which one.
Its 1st, 2nd and 13th Air Assault Battalions have been committed in the Toretsk sector since late June, as the brigade’s support units, and have been very busy during July. The evidence, including from the last few days, points out that at least the bulk of the brigade is indeed still in that sector. Somehow I doubt there are plans to transfer the whole brigade, but we shall see!