Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets this morning posted on his Telegram channel an estimate from the Ukrainian military intelligence of the Russian grouping from the Dnipro River (in Vasylivka) to Volodymyrivka (near Vuhledar). That’s the grouping the Ukrainian forces employed in the counteroffensive are facing. I’m not sure it includes the 68th Corps, but in the end just one maneuver brigade is included in this formation. Part of the Southern Military District and the whole Eastern Military District are concentrated in the area. The grouping is probably under the command of the latter.

There would be 105 thousand men, 470 MBTs, 1410 AFVs, 720 artillery guns of ≥100mm caliber, 230 MLRS. The numbers are similar to those of the Central + Western Military District grouping from Kreminna to Kupyansk, which, however, according to the estimate of the last month had far more tanks (830) as the three Russian tank divisions were deployed there. Mashovets points out that the equipment is actually undersized compared to the amount of formations deployed in the southern front.

I tried to make a map showing the sectors of responsibility of the armies deployed in the southern front based on available geolocations and tried to estimate the boundaries between them. Forgive my horrible graphics! For the background map I used Andrew Perpetua’s.

A few caveats: the Russian armies are not textbook field armies - they can be compared with a NATO Corps (such as the 58th Army) or a Division in most cases (such as EMD Armies, except the 5th). The armies' brigades/regiments are not 100% manned/equipped - both because no unit is ever at that level during a war and because a part of the Russian formations are made up of conscripts from the military service who are not deployed in Ukraine. Mashovets says that in a standard Russian motorized brigade consisting of 3 motorized battalions + 1 tank battalion, just 2 motorized battalions reinforced by tank companies are generally deployed in Ukraine.

At the same time, reinforcements from other formations are present in the various sectors of responsibility. In the sector of the 58th Army, there are two regiments of the 7th VDV Division, two Spetsnaz GRU brigades, several BARS detachments, elements of the 7th Military Base of the 49th Army and of course the territorial regiments attached to the 58th Army; in the sector of the 5th Army there is another regiment of the 7th VDV Division and the 136th Motorized Brigade and the 71st Motorized Regiment of the 58th Army; in that of the 36th Army there is the 34th Mountain Brigade of the 49th Army plus reinforcements in terms of units of the 1st Corps (former DPR Army). In the entire southern front all the naval infantry brigades are deployed (including the Caspian Fleet’s regiment but except the Arctic Fleet’s brigade which is in Kherson).

The count excludes the formations still in Kherson Oblast: part of the 49th Army (SMD), the 22nd Corps (SMD) and the 14th Corps (NMD, which appears to have replaced the 200th Brigade, currently near Bakhmut, with the 61st Brigade) as well as several territorial regiments. From the end of the sector of the 68th Corps then begins that of the 8th Army of the Southern MD, covering from Marinka to the Siversky Donets River (including Bakhmut I assume). Having included the former armies of the DPR and LPR (now 1st and 2nd Corps) this is by far the largest Russian formation after all.