Here we are for the second part of my tactical analysis on the evolution of the front in Ukraine during the last month, following the first.

Chasiv Yar sector. The Russians (98th VDV Division; particularly its 331st Airborne Regiment) have managed to pass the Donets-Donbas Canal and establish a foothold in the western bank, capturing the trenches along the canal in that area and some houses in Zhovtnevyi District, particularly in the area just south of the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar railway.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6479

Recall that in the canal the water reaches up to the knee - there is no problem in passing it, but it’s not possible to carry heavy equipment to the other bank as of now. Nevertheless, despite the fact that the intensity of fighting remains high, the importance of Chasiv Yar has decreased compared to, for example, the Pokrovsk sector. Let’s also recall the transfer of the 200th Motorized Brigade of the 14th Corps as well as the 11th VDV Brigade from this sector to Kursk. Also, according to Russian sources, subunits of the 98th VDV Division were recently replenished with men from the 104th VDV Division.

https://t.me/vdv_za_chestnost_spravedlivost/3315

Chasiv Yar is defended primarily by the 24th Mech Brigade; the northern flank (Kalynivka area) is covered by the 56th Motorized Brigade, recently reinforced by the arrival of the 23rd Mech Brigade. The southern flank (Ivanivske area) is covered by the 5th Assault Brigade, along with its “dowries” - primarily territorial defense battalions (particularly from the 112th TDF Brigade).

At the same time, the Russians are trying to expand as much control as possible on the flanks of Chasiv Yar, on the eastern bank of the canal. To the north, units of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps (particularly its “Sever-V” and “St. George” Assault and Recon Brigades) have managed to approach Hryhorivka, as well as to advance about 2,5 km to the west of Zaliznyanske, along some forest belts, in the defense area of the 30th Mech Brigade.

To the south, there is progress in near Klishchiivka. It’s likely that the Ukrainians have lost control over Hill 215 and the large trenches system around it. The 93rd Mech Brigade along with its “dowries” is the main Ukrainian force in this area (which have been significantly weakened recently with the withdrawal of the 22nd Mech Brigade and of the elements of the 80th Air Assault Brigade which were deployed here), and faces attacks by the 4th Motorized Brigade of the 3rd CAA (from the north, supported by “Akhmat” detachments) and by the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps (from the east). The Russians are trying to approach Hill 227 (south-west of Hill 215) and to clear the Ukrainian forward positions in the forested area west of Klishchiivka.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6374

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6378

At the same time, further south, the 72nd Motorized Brigade of the 3rd Corps and the 7th Military Base of the 49th CAA are advancing north of Andriivka. The village is likely a grey area. The area of Hill 220, west of Andriivka, remains in Ukrainian hands.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6522

How long the Ukrainian bridgehead in the eastern bank of the canal will be able to hold, is something that it’s more than legitimate to begin wondering.

Russians (probably from the 177th Separate Naval Infantry Regiment) were seen in a Ukrainian trench just west of the Donets-Donbas Canal, between Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka, in the defense area of the 28th Mech Brigade (which ranges from Kurdyumivka to Druzhba).

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6518

Toretsk Sector. This sector is the main effort of the 51st CAA, i.e. the former 1st Corps. After completely occupying the Ukrainian bridgehead in the eastern bank of the canal in the area to the north-west of Mayorsk, the Russians have recorded further advances inside Druzhba, reaching the western part of the village - the north-western part of which remains Ukrainian. To the south of the Kostiantynivka-Horlivka railway, the Russians are working to finish conquering the built-up area of Pivnichne, after having occupied the terrikon west of the town.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6573

The Russians have already entered Toretsk itself (from two sides). From the east, they have captured the vast majority of the high rises district and the Toretsk Central City Hospital - a little further south, they are approaching the Nova Poshta No. 1 office and the Penal Colony No. 2. There are also Russian advances in the area of the dachas, east of the penal colony.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6556

The 132nd Motorized Brigade of the 51st CAA is active in this area, along with rifle regiments of the same army, such as the 101st and 109th. On the Ukrainian side, there are the 32nd and 100th Mech Brigades (the latter arrived in July after two months of rest to recover combat capabilities - this was the brigade that replaced the 115th Mech Brigade after the Ocheretyne breakthrough and was engaged in bloody battles), along with the bulk of the “Lyut” Brigade of the National Police, as well as with the 138th Special Purpose Center of the Military Police. The 95th Air Assault Brigade was active here, but the bulk moved to Kursk, being replaced by the new 150th Mech Brigade.

Here the Russian tactic is a considerable use of KABs along with the assault by small groups of stormtroopers, who build up, group after group, in the basement of buildings until they have accumulated enough strength to attack another given Ukrainian position, to which they have meanwhile moved considerably closer.

The Russians occupied the terrikon west of Zalizne, as well as the electric substation south-west of the town. After occupying the small psychiatric and tuberculosis hospitals, they entered the south-eastern part of Toretsk, seizing the Secondary School No. 2. The 1st Motorized Brigade of the 51st CAA is active in this area.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6499

West of Nelipivka, in the area of the ponds, there are still Ukrainian positions. This village should be almost entirely in Ukrainian hands. The situation in Niu-York (particularly in areas such as the Phenol Plant and the Special School No. 38) is unclear – the town is indeed overwhelmingly in Russian hands, although there remains an Ukrainian presence in some areas in the northern part.

The 53rd Mech Brigade, fighting in Niu-York (where it arrived in July after several months in Sumy Oblast to recover combat capabilities), is doing a good job despite considerable difficulties, along with the 425th “Skala” Separate Assault Battalion and several other units - such as the 72nd and 212th Battalions of the 101st TDF Brigade, at least one battalion of the 105th TDF Brigade, and so on. There should also be a battalion of the 1st Tank Brigade and possibly a rifle battalion of the 66th Mech Brigade in the area. The 41st Mech Brigade as far as I know should have been taken out to recover combat capabilities, along with the elements of the 241st TDF Brigade that were attached to it.

As for the Russians, the 9th Motorized Brigade of the 51st CAA along with the 111th Rifle Regiment, subordinate to it, is active in Niu-York. The Russians are also working to expand westwards, along several forest belts, towards Oleksandropil and Panteleimonivka, thus trying to outflank Ukrainian positions, held mainly by the 109th TDF Brigade, which have been preventing the Russians from moving northwards (from the Novobakhmutivka area) for months. The 35th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA is likely active in this area. Second part below.

Pokrovsk sector. It’s needless to reiterate how critical the situation is. The main problem, at the tactical-operational level, was the breakthrough at Prohres and the seizure of the source of the Vovcha that occurred shortly thereafter. This was further aggravated by the loss of Zhelanne and Serhiivka, in front of which there were important strongpoints. Although the Ukrainians are still making mistakes, the current situation is a consequence of these losses.

We had seen several times in recent months the meaning of the rivers in this sector. The Russian advance west of the Vovcha River has completely undermined the capable Ukrainian resistance (by the 47th Mech Brigade and especially by the 68th Jager Brigade) during the summer in the Novoselivka Persha area, which had allowed to buy time, but was basically useless in light of the events that occurred. The important fortifications that the Ukrainians had along the course of the Vovcha and which were to form the main defense line were taken from behind: the western bank of the river was quickly captured by the Russians, being poorly defensible against attacks from the north. With the result that the Russians now occupied Karlivka and its reservoir (which was to act as a natural barrier against advances from the east) from the north… It’s really hard to underestimate that. Now there are no more potential defensive lines so blessed by morphology and waterways, with the Russians much closer to Pokrovsk and having reached the gates of Selydove.

Let’s do a recap of the tactical situation, from north to south. Firstly, in the northern flank of the sector (from Vozdvyzhenka to the H20 Highway), held by the 110th Mech Brigade (to which the 111th TDF Brigade and other territorial defense units are subordinate), there have been no Russian advances, thanks also to the presence of widespread fortifications. From Vozdvyzhenka to Lozuvatske, the Ukrainians are successfully holding positions along the forest belt between the two villages.

From the source of the Kazennyi Torets in Lozuvatske, the Russians (41st CAA operates here) were able to occupy the southern bank of the river as far as Novotoretske, reaching the pond formed by the confluence of the Kazennyi Torets with the Zhuravka River, having occupied Ivanivka a couple of weeks ago (the village was captured by the 74th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA). There is no evidence to the Russian rumors that the latters were able to cross the Kazennyi Torets north of Novotoretske. This area is defended by the 14th “Chervona Kalyna” Brigade of the National Guard, together with the 35th “Sumy” Regiment of the NG.

Hrodivka is being attacked by the Russians, who control the eastern part of the village. They have also approached the built-up area from the south, capturing the forest belts in that area. Ukrainian resistance is very strong. The village primarily is defended by the 151st Mech Brigade. According to Russian sources, the village was captured yesterday by the 55th Mountain Brigade of the 41st CAA, but there is no evidence in favor of this. In any case, there are several strong points further west along the road to Myrnohrad.

https://t.me/motopatriot/27032

Just to the south, the 15th and 30th Motorized Brigades of the 2nd CAA are active; the 27th Motorized Division of the 2nd CAA is active in the direction of Selydove, with all its three motorized regiments in action (433rd, 506th, 589th). There are also numerous regiments of the Territorial Forces attached to Russian units. All the units of the Central Military District (except of course the 25th CAA, which is in the Lyman sector under the GoF “West”) are attacking in this area, including the 90th Tank Division – the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 51st CAA is involved too. The 1st Motorized Brigade of the 51st CAA, before it was moved to the Toretsk sector, also fought along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway; its stormtroopers were the first Russians to enter Prohres, back in July. In the Pokrovsk sector there are also the 3rd and 24th Spetsnaz GRU Brigades, as well as the brigade tactical group of the 201st Military Base.

After occupying Zhuravka (taken by the 589th Motorized Regiment), the Russians moved against Krasnyi Yar and Krutyi Yar. The situation there is not entirely clear - they should, however, remain in Ukrainian hands - at least the former village. From here the Russians aim to approach Myrnohrad (which, remember, is a city of almost 50 thousand people before the war). In this area, in mid-August, the 71st Jager Brigade returned in action.

Just south of the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway, the Russians completely occupied Novohrodivka. In this town there were serious coordination problems between the various Ukrainian units and even more serious command and control problems on the part of OTG “Donetsk”, which contributed to the rapid Russian advance. Here the Russians also occupied the northern part of the town, including the Coal Mine located there.

The 47th Mech Brigade with its numerous “dowries” is active in the area, along with the 117th Mech Brigade (to which the 28th Rifle Battalion, which lost its commander earlier this month, is subordinate) and the 2nd “Galician” Brigade of the NG. The 25th Airborne Brigade has recently arrived in the area from Karlivka. The 31st Mech Brigade, at least the bulk of it, has been brought out for restoration. Elements of it may be in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to what I found in social media.

Further south, the Russians are trying to occupy Marynivka. They have also occupied a section of the M04 (E50) Highway, including several strongholds in the area. They have also seized Mykhailivka, a village that is in fact an eastern suburb of Selydove (though it’s part of the Novohrodivka hromada), occupying the local Coal Mine. From here the Russians are trying to enter Selydove, managing to occupy some houses in the eastern end of the town. However, Ukrainian resistance is very strong and no relevant Russian successes are recorded in the town. The 15th “Kara-Dag” Brigade of the NG is active in this area.

Looking south-east, the Russians have passed the M04 and occupied Memryk. The 90th Tank Division is active in this area. The village has been occupied by its 228th Motorized Regiment. Subunits of its 6th, 80th and 239th Tank Regiments are active in the area, and also providing armored support to other units in the sector. Now the Russians are pushing further south, approaching Halytsynivka and Lisivka. In this area, Ukrainian control over Ukrainsk will be crucial. Getting closer to the Vovcha, the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 51st CAA active. It, together with the 90th Tank Division, was brought into the western bank of the Vovcha after the capture of Novoselivka Persha - once it was clear that the Ukrainians would abandon their positions in the eastern bank.

The 114th Motorized Brigade, moving down the course of the Vovcha, reached the part of Karlivka on the western bank of the Vovcha, which they occupied; while the Ukrainians left the part of the village on the eastern bank (which had held out for months against the Russian attacks from the east), which was occupied by the “Somalia” Assault Battalion (subordinate to the 9th Motorized Brigade of the 51st CAA) and by the 112th Rifle Regiment of the 51st CAA – which have now therefore met with the soldiers of the 114th Brigade coming southwards from the other side of the Vovcha. The Russians also occupied several forest belts south of Karlivka. This morning the 114th Motorized Brigade captured the part of Halytsynivka north of the Vovcha River.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6615

The Ukrainians will probably try to hold as long as possible the rest of the village, which in any case lies on the eastern bank of the Vovcha (which in the vicinity of the village makes a sharp turn southwards), for the purpose of avoiding an abrupt withdrawal from the Nevelske area. This is the area where the Russians are likely to have the biggest gains in the coming days; whereas it must be said that Ukrainian reinforcements, which we will see below, seem to have been able to somewhat stabilize the situation in the directions of Myrnohrad and Selydove.

The 68th Jager Brigade and elements of the 59th Motorized Brigade are trying to oppose the Russians in this area. We will finish analyzing the situation in this area below. What’s important is that nobody should think for second that the Ukrainians are not putting up a strenuous resistance in the sector. In every section of it. It would be disrespectful to those - and there are many, many of them - who have given and are giving their lives in defense of every forest belt and every village in the attempt to halt the Russian onslaught. Third part below.

What’s often not possible is to reinforce positions while they are in serious danger of being lost, due to being the focus of Russian attacks and/or due to the exhaustion of the squad that is defending them. Because of infantry shortages, because of the loss of nearby positions leading to the risk of encirclement, because of the impossibility of counterattacks. But above all because of widespread incompetence by the command at every level: in the OSG “Khortytsia”, in the OTG " Donetsk”, and in the commands of most brigades.

It must be said that there are also some Russian merits - as also pointed out by the Ukrainian observer Mashovets, the GoF “Centre” is by far the one with the best command & control. It is consistently able to maintain good interaction between units despite, as we saw above, many brigades/regiments being involved, even from different CAAs; as well as to identify Ukrainian weak points and take advantage of windows of opportunities that arise.

Mordvichev, the head of this GoF and of the Central Military District, is probably the best Russian general among those who are holding comparable posts. But it should also be said that the GoF “Centre” throughout this year has always been the “favorite son” of the Russian Armed Forces. It has been and is constantly being allocated the greatest resources in terms of manpower and materials. Russian losses are enormous but there is a constant supply of men, a continuous one. Assault detachments are constantly being replenished and returning to attack. This, despite perhaps the Russians not having in a given time a multiple of the number of Ukrainian troops, grants the possibility of a very high turnover and gives the Ukrainians the impression that there are many more Russians. These continuous and generous supplies of men, but also of materials, allow units that have had gigantic losses for 10 months now to continue to fight and advance while maintaining good levels of readiness for offensive operations. This Russian channel reports that a very considerable portion of new recruits are assigned to units of the GoF “Centre”, leading to certain manpower shortages in other sectors.

https://t.me/vdv_za_chestnost_spravedlivost/4003

The Russians always attack in this sector, in every direction. They have approached the current line by attacking every single forest belt, and using that as a springboard to seize subsequent ones. Overall, that’s how they managed to achieve such a fast advance along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway. The railroad is surrounded by wide forest belts on both sides. From a satellite view, it might not be so noticeable. I recommend viewing this screenshot. These forest belts were critical in allowing Russian infantry to advance in numbers large enough by the standards of this war (while relatively hidden from Ukrainian drones), build up and move on to the next attack. One cannot underestimate the role of the forest belts in facilitating Russian advances, which are occuring with limited use of armored vehicles (compared to what we see in the Kurakhove sector, for instance) and are very infantry-intensive.

Let’s bring data on this: according to reports from the OSG “Khortytsia”, the day before yesterday there were 179 combat clashes, yesterday 183. This was from the Kharkiv sector to the Velyka Novosilka sector. On both days, 55 of these occurred in the Pokrovsk sector alone!

https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/998

Not to mention Russian EW systems, fraticide problems for Ukrainian drones, the fact that the Russians often use new frequencies for FPV drones that make it very difficult, at least initially, for Ukrainian EW to adapt to them. In this sector KABs are of course a problem, but actually not that huge, at least compared to other sectors. The Russians just simply use a huge amount of artillery, mortars, TOS, AGS-17s etc. (even at the expense of other sectors) and manage to have enough shells to adequately cover any forest belt and the other Ukrainian positions.

In mid-July the Ukrainian tactical crisis peaked, and the brigades that had been fighting in this sector for months were exhausted. First and foremost, the 47th Mech Brigade - which fights thanks to many " dowries” assigned to it, the 31st Mech Brigade had lost combat capability, even the 68th Jager Brigade with its “dowries” (which good work has been flushed down the drain) was showing signs of months of attrition. The command therefore decided on the gradual arrival of a significant amount of reinforcements, despite the almost simultaneous start of offensive operations in Kursk. In the middle of the month, the 151st Mech Brigade, a new brigade, arrived - previously its battalions performed secondary tasks in different sectors, and was placed under the operational subordination of the 47th Mech Brigade. It should now operate independently - Syrsky recently visited the brigade’s HQ in this sector. Like with other new brigades, there is the problem of the presence of “suboptimal” officers (who come from staffing roles, or are mobilized reserve officers retired like 25 years ago in a different branch, etc.), lack of a good core of NCOs, problems with training and physical fitness in a part of the infantrymen. But the soldiers of the brigade have been fighting valiantly, and often at great cost, in defense of their appointed positions.

At the end of July the 117th Mech Brigade (from Orikhiv), the 14th “Chervona-Kalyna” Brigade of the NG (from Orikhiv) and the 35th “Sumy” Regiment of the NG (from Velyka Pysarivka in Sumy Oblast, where it was covering the border) arrived. In early August the 15th “Kara-Dag” Brigade of the NG was transferred too - it has been mentioned in the daily bulletin of the Russian MoD for a couple of weeks and there are also several MIA notices of its servicemen. It’s unclear whether it was accompanied by the 19th “Mykolaiv” Regiment of the NG, which was fighting in the Orikhiv sector attached to it. A considerable part of the Ukrainian grouping in the Orikhiv sector was transferred here. These are good brigades. The “Tsunami” Assault Regiment of the “Lyut” Brigade of the National Police was also recently transferred to the Pokrovsk sector from Vovchansk. The 71st Jager Brigade (at least the bulk of it), in the middle of this month, returned to the Pokrovsk sector from Vovchansk (one of its battalions had always remained in this sector by the way, to my knowledge). Additional territorial defense battalions have arrived to increase the infantry endowment of the brigades fighting here.

But that’s not all. According to my findings on Ukrainian social media, elements of the 58th Motorized Brigade should be arriving from the Velyka Novosilka sector. The 152nd Jager Brigade (or at least elements of it), as far as I have found from posts of relatives of its servicemen, has been assigned to the 58th Motorized Brigade and is being sent to Pokrovsk too. This new brigade was reformed from mechanized to jager in early August. According to what I have seen on posts of this brigade’s servicemen, it appears to have received a batch of Kirpi MRAPs. Previously, this brigade used to cover, according to relatives, the second/third line in Sumy Oblast.

Also, the spokesman of the GoF “Centre” lately has started mentioning the 37th Marine Brigade and 44th Mech Brigade as being deployed in the area where the GoF has jurisdiction over. Most of the time it’s reliable, but still I always wait to find actual evidence. There is none for the 44th Mech Brigade. However, I am beginning to find some initial confirmations for the 37th Marine Brigade, currently in Kherson Oblast. Its Recon UAV unit may be located in the Pokrovsk sector. I also found a photo showing servicemen from this brigade at the entrance to Donetsk Oblast, along the M04 Highway - leading from Pavlohrad to Pokrovsk. There are also some rumors about the arrival of elements of the 92nd Assault Brigade, but we shall see.

Kurakhove sector. As we saw above, it’s not an easy situation for the 59th Motorized Brigade, which has responsibility for the important Karlivka-Nevelske-Krasnohorivka triangle. The northern part of which has already cracked. The soldiers of the 59th Brigade have so far held Nevelske admirably, with forward positions still in the western part of the village. However, it is highly likely that the Ukrainians will find themselves forced to abandon this triangle if the Russians have further success southwards, from Karlivka. In that case, the main defensive line would stand along the course of the Vovcha.

In Krasnohorivka, the situation has stabilized somewhat after the Russians captured the vast majority of the town. However, the Russians continue to try to advance westwards along Syedove and Zhovtneva Streets; moreover, they should control some houses in the northern bank of the Lozova River.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6442

They are also attacking along the Donetsk-Kurakhove railway westwards. Here elements of the 59th Motorized Brigade are fighting, reinforced by some battalions of the 117th and 118th TDF Brigades, and the 21st Special Purpose Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade. On the Russian side, there are the 5th and 110th Motorized Brigades of the 51st CAA, reinforced by regiments of the Territorial Forces, and also the 346th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade. Last part below.

The situation is not any easier further south. The Russians have been geolocated in the eastern part of Maksymilyanivka. At this point I highly doubt there are still Ukrainian positions in Heorhiivka, however fluid the situation is. This area is being defended by the 46th Airmobile Brigade, which is nevertheless doing a good job overall, destroying numerous units of Russian equipment. Units of the 150th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA are attacking in this area.

Further south, the Russians appear to be closing that Ukrainian salient between Pobjeda and Kostyantynivka. Ukraine’s 33rd Mech Brigade continues to repel Russian attacks west of Pobjeda. The 20th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA is active between the latter village and Kostyantynivka.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6572

The 79th Air Assault Brigade, together with its “dowries”, defends the area around Kostyantynivka. The village is being attacked by units of the 20th Motorized Division, by the 57th Motorized Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps and units of the 68th Corps. According to Russian sources, however, the 57th Regiment would be part of the 20th Division and no longer part of the 6th Division (the same thing happened in March to the 10th Tank Regiment, which switched from the 6th to the 20th Division). The Russians firmly control the eastern half of Kostyantynivka and are trying to occupy the western half, as well as having captured the part of the village north of Sukhi Yaly. Stormtroopers of the 57th Regiment have planted the Russian flag in the western end of Kostyantynivka, but at the moment there is no evidence they have consolidated in the area. Some Ukrainian positions most likely remain in the village.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6560

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6591

Vuhledar sector. Sharp deterioration of the situation in the left (from the Ukrainian pov) flank of the town. The Russians have now reached the O0532 Road in several points. Recently, the assault detachment of the 39th Motorized Brigade of the 68th Corps has captured the large Ukrainian company-stronghold east of Vodiane. The 1472nd Regiment of the Territorial Forces is also active in the area. South-east of Vodiane, the Russians passed the O0532 Road, approaching the village.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6545

The Russian advance has been very costly not only in human terms but also in equipment, yet they are having success in putting Vuhledar in a troublesome corner, formed by the front line. The 72nd Mech Brigade, which has responsibility over the entire Vuhledar sector and is supported by several “dowries” (separate rifle battalions or territorial defense ones) is doing what it can to contain the Russian advance, though not without difficulty. Recently, for instance, problems have arisen with the 216th Battalion of the 125th TDF Brigade, attached to the 72nd Brigade, which has suffered heavy losses and lost positions, also due to problems of interaction with the command of the 72nd Brigade.

The Russians (specifically, the 57th Motorized Brigade of the 5th CAA), are approaching the Pivdennodonbaska No. 1 Coal Mine, which remains fully in Ukrainian hands, however. To the south-west and south of Vuhledar the 29th CAA is active, with its 36th Motorized Brigade and 139th Separate Assault Battalion (unclear whether it’s a brigade - Russian sources differ on this). In the last week the Russians have also become active in the right flank of Vuhledar, between Pavlivka and Shevchenko, an area that had seen few direct Russian attacks over the recent months. In the area there should be elements of the 36th Motorized Brigade, the 95th Rifle Regiment of the 51st CAA, the 1466th Regiment of the Territorial Forces, and several battalions of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade.

Here the Russians were able to advance 4 km (according to DeepState), from Shevchenko to the Kashlahach River. In general, a Russian goal may be to bring the front in this area from the Shaitanka to the Kashlahach, in the direction of Prechystivka. We will see, in this regard, whether the Russians will also start actions from Novomaiorske. The objective is clearly to worsen the tactical situation around Vuhledar, with the potential goal of trying to “close the matter” during the fall, with an offensive involving the bulk of the forces of the GoF “East”.

Velyka Novosilka sector. After capturing Urozhaine, the 36th CAA together with a battalion of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade are trying to advance northwards, with slight successes, as well as in the forest belts to the north-east of the village.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6254

The situation has stabilized in the western bank of the Mokri Yaly, responsibility of the 5th CAA - Makarivka is fully in Ukrainian hands. According to Mashovets, the 60th Motorized Brigade of the 5th CAA suffered major losses during the battle for Staromaiorske; elements of the 114th Motorized Regiment of the 127th Motorized Division (5th CAA), deployed in the Marfopil area, were moved to this area to support the offensive efforts of the 394th Motorized Regiment of the same division. Fighting in this sector has, anyway, lost intensity over the past month.

Huliaipole sector. Nothing relevant to report.

Orikhiv sector. The intensity of clashes significantly decreased compared to previous months. As we saw earlier, a very conspicuous part of the Ukrainian grouping deployed here was transferred to the Pokrovsk sector. At the same time, the Russians from this sector firstly removed, during the spring, the 76th VDV Division: this month a significant part of the 7th VDV Division and the 136th Motorized Brigade of the 58th CAA. The remaining Ukrainian units (65th and 118th Mech Brigades, 141st Infantry Brigade, a few smaller units such as a battalion of the 107th TDF Brigade, a rifle battalion of the 5th Tank Brigade etc.) confront the 42nd Motorized Division of the 58th CAA and the regiments of the Territorial Forces subordinate to it. If the situation calms down further, it is possible that the 118th Mech Brigade, with elements of it already partially in reserve, will also leave for other places.

There have been some slight Russian advances, however, north of Robotyne, with Russians attempting to improve their positions to the detriment of Ukrainian ones, in the heights (so to speak) to the south of the Balka Uspenivska.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6538

Elements of the 7th VDV Division during late July have also captured an Ukrainian strongpoint south-west of Novopokrovka.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6153

Kamyanske sector. Nothing to report.

Kherson sector / Dnipro River. After finishing cleaning up Krynky (likely during the first week of July, that is when a channel associated with VDV units of the GoF “Dnepr” did not mention any more battles inside Krynky), fierce battles nevertheless are raging on the islands, where Ukrainian marines (mainly from the 35th Marine Brigade), along with elements of several TDF brigades (121st, 123rd, 124th, 126th) clash with Russian paratroopers (from the 104th VDV Division, but units from the 76th VDV Division are also present) and with 70th Motorized Division of the 18th CAA.

Let’s recall that from Nova Kakhovka to the mouth of the Dnipro there are almost a hundred kilometers of course of the river, dotted with marshy islands. According to the channel I mentioned above, there were preparations by the GoF “Dnepr” regarding potential but serious Dnipro-crossing activities (probably something comparable to Krynky), canceled later because of the transfer of units from here to Kursk and the resources that the Pokrovsk sector in particular needs.

https://t.me/vdv_za_chestnost_spravedlivost/3993

The GoF “Dnepr” is trying to rebuild the combat readiness of its units’ assault detachments, but it has been weakened. In addition to the transfers from the Orikhiv sector that we saw above and the departure of the 45th Spetsnaz VDV Brigade from Kamyanske, the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and at least a detachment of the 10th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade left from Kherson Oblast, and there are Russian rumors that in the future (at least units of) the 76th and 104th VDV Divisions may leave; Mashovets also reported that the 80th Motorized Brigade of the 14th Corps may be moved from this sector to Kursk. The same channel reports that the worst-performing paratroopers of the 104th VDV Division are being transferred to the 70th Motorized Division (and to the 42nd Motorized Division too), as the 104th Division potentially prepares to leave the sector. This was confirmed today in a video protest.

https://t.me/vdv_za_chestnost_spravedlivost/3921

https://t.me/vdv_za_chestnost_spravedlivost/3928

https://t.me/ne_zhdi_novosti/805

The same channel reports that former commander of the 35th CAA, Lt. Gen. Nyrkov, has become the head of the GoF “Dnepr”, replacing Teplinsky. We will see if this is confirmed.

https://t.me/vdv_za_chestnost_spravedlivost/4006

That’s all!

Thanks!

Thanks! Actually that’s not so clear. On paper they should be brigades that specialize in fighting in forested areas, but in wartime these things become almost irrelevant (think of mountain units). Also they should have lighter equipment, e.g. MRAPs, IMVs and at most APCs instead of IFVs, but this is the case in a large share of mechanized brigades too.

In theory they should not have a tank unit, but the 68th Jager Brigade does (formally a battalion as far as I know, though most likely under-equipped). And they also have their own artillery group, unlike infantry brigades. The 68th Jager Brigade for example is very much comparable to a “median” mechanized brigade. The 71st Jager Brigade to my knowledge doesn’t have a tank unit, but it’s a particular brigade as it’s part of the Air Assault Forces (the others of the Ground Forces). About the 13th Jager Brigade we know very little, but it is equipped with MRAPs and IMVs. The 152nd Jager Brigade in the past (when it was still named mechanized) was seen with BWP-1s; I don’t know if they still have them (most likely they do, in my opinion), and as I said they also have Kirpi MRAPs as far as I could find. I doubt they have a tank unit though, but they are still more well structured than an infantry or territorial defense brigade, which are basically made up of several rifle battalions with some support companies.

DPICMs.