DeepState yesterday afternoon, confirming Russian rumors, had written that Tabaivka had been taken by the Russians, while in last night’s update it wrote, as reported by u/hatesranged, that the Russians have not yet occupied the settlement and there is fighting in the village area and just outside. In itself, Tabaivka has no tactical relevance, what matters are the heights just to the west, which are the watershed between the Oskil and the Pischana. Heights that I expect have been fortified by the Ukrainians in order to be defended against Russian attacks, which once they take part of the Pischana valley, are going to have an altitude disadvantage if they continue to attack westwards. They are also attacking in the direction of Berestove, a few kilometers to the south.

The Russians are also attacking towards Kotlyarivka and Kyslivka, further north. These two settlements, on the other hand, are tactically important, although the Ukrainians seem to be defending them well at the moment. Losing them would give the Russians access to the high ground north of the Pischana valley and could jeopardize Ukrainian positions further north near Ivanivka, which the Ukrainians have been defending excellently for months against Russian attacks from Orlianka and Yahidne. It’s clear that the Russians want to put pressure in this section of the front to aim at approaching Kupyansk and the Oskil from this direction, and it seems that the bulk of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st GTA, which has received reinforcements and new units in recent months, is committed in the operation. In any case, from this to say that Kupyansk may be directly threatened would be an overstatement in my opinion - the “journey” will be a long one for the Russians.

It’s worth noting what DeepState wrote at the end, which confirms what I have been reading for more than a week about the fact there are serious communication problems going on between units in the Kupyansk sector (particularly in that section), with units often not admitting the loss of positions, with the only result being to get neighboring units into trouble. This at the “micro” level can happen due to squads losing or leaving positions without alerting neighboring squads of the same unit, and at the “macro” level when officers don’t notify other brigades of front line changes, perhaps out of fear of being judged negatively or confident that their unit will be able to regain what was lost with a counterattack (which is often another cause of problems). Specifically, the Tabaivka/Krokhmalne area is covered by the 103rd TDF Brigade and there seems to have been problems within this unit. It’s possible that Ukrainian reinforcements are stabilizing the situation, for example near Berestove the 25th Airborne Brigade should be active, while Russian sources report the presence of the 44th Mechanized Brigade around Tabaivka - we will see whether or not this will find confirmation in the facts.