July 24, 2024
Jul 2024 - Larelli

Answering to u/Velixis too - this issue was brought to light on Monday by relatives of soldiers of the 31st Mechanized Brigade, and it was then made known to the public yesterday thanks to DeepState (as far as I know, they will write a detailed report on this later).

We don’t know the amount of the troops in those areas, in my opinion it’s hardly that high (let’s remember that generally battalions are understrength, and certainly not the entirety of their soldiers are on the front line). Specifically, the woman in the post is looking for her uncle, a MIA serviceman from the 1st Company of the 1st Battalion of the 31st Brigade.

We can’t talk about encirclement because there isn’t one (Google’s translation of that post is also not 100% reliable), but the problem is that now the withdrawal of the guys which are at “zero” in those areas is very complicated and the situation overall serious, which is due to the numerous reasons already pointed out, and above all due to the lack of orders of withdrawal and problems in terms of coordination and control among the various units.

The positions currently at risk are not only the trenches to the west of Hill 237, south of Lozuvatske (where the situation is the worst), but also others north of the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in the area just above Prohres (which are in danger of having their western flank cut off due to the Russians approaching Ivanivka); as well as a couple of strong points south-east of Vovche in the northern bank of the Balka Samoilova (east of the Vovcha River, of course), with the Russians attempting to enter Vovche from Prohres.

On the Russian side there has been a regrouping recently (I will write about this in the near future); the most difficult section in the sector is this one, along the railroad (which is the main effort of the 2nd CAA); the direction of the T0504 Highway is far from easy either (the main effort of the 41st CAA). In Novoselivka Persha things are complicated as well: the soldiers of the 68th Jager Brigade are tenaciously defending every single house of the settlement as well as the forest belts to the south, but even in this area there is still no order to withdraw and, like the 47th Mech Brigade, they are being sacrificed (along with the units subordinate to them) to allow the UAF to buy time in order to keep building fortifications in the rear. The problem now, however, is that the Russians will be able to continue their attacks from the high ground between the sources of the Bychok, of the Kazennyi Torets and of the Vovhca without having to force the latter river, indeed having their left flank covered by it…

I had written about this a few weeks ago: the Pokrovsk sector is the most difficult of the entire front and the situation is critical; one only has to read the reports from the OSG “Khortytsia” to see that the plurality of attacks in its area of jurisdiction occur in the Pokrovsk sector. The plurality of losses all along the front for both sides happen here too. The Russians attack continuously, they have enormous losses but also constant reinforcements; the Ukrainians on the other hand, in their current force structure in the sector, are unable to offer a solid resistance, mostly as a consequence of the depletion of the brigades deployed here. A week ago relatives of the (sadly quite a few) MIAs from this area have started a petition addressed to Zelensky. In the text is the list of the brigades engaged between Novooleksandrivka and Novoselivka Persha; the list moreover excludes elements of several TDF brigades that are attached to these brigades. The 47th Mech Brigade in particular can’t catch a minute of break since October (which means no time to properly rebuild it), its Abrams and Bradleys help a lot in the area and its soldiers offer a very valiant resistance, but the infantry shortage is significant - in fact they are fighting thanks to the units attached to the brigade, plus they have also recently received replenishments in terms of men from the 18th Army Aviation Brigade.

There is a very, very important need for reinforcements (as well as for serious changes in the command of the OTG “Donetsk”) - the “new” 151st Mech Brigade has been committed in this area during this week, with its battalions arriving from the other sectors where they had been deployed previously; the arrival of elements of the 414th Strike UAV Regiment of the Marine Corps (“Birds of Madyar”) might be a prelude to an arrival of maneuver units from the corps. But in any case, the Russian offensive actions in the Toretsk sector caused that numerous reinforcements had to be sent there, at the expenses of the Pokrovsk sector too.