An update on the order of battle in Ukraine.

In the Serebrianka Forest (Kreminna sector), elements of the 272nd Motorized Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army of the Moscow Military District have gone into action, per the Ukrainian observer Mashovets. Already last month elements of the 153rd Tank Regiment of the same division had arrived in Kreminna along with the 347th Regiment of the Territorial Forces, with the aim of going into action in the Serebrianka Forest. In both cases they were moved from the Kupyansk sector, in the context that today a large part of the Kreminna sector has become the jurisdiction of the Group of Forces “West”.

The purpose is clear: to fill the void left by the transfer of the entire 90th Tank Division of the Central MD to Avdiivka. Other minor elements of the 1st GTA are being transferred to the Kreminna sector to reinforce the offensive actions of the 144th Motorized Division (20th Army, Moscow MD) and of the 67th Motorized Division (25th Army, Central MD) in the direction of Terny and Yampolivka, where some new minor Russian successes were recorded in the recent days. This also suggests that at the moment Kupyansk (where the Russians have no progress around Synkivka and their advances around Tabaivka have been halted), has become a secondary front for the Russians, with priority given to Kreminna. Regarding the Ukrainians, the 96th and 98th Mech Battalions of the 60th Mech Brigade have arrived in Terny from Kupyansk, so the entire brigade is now deployed here. An UAV unit of the 93rd Mech Brigade is also active in the same area, and it seems some of the brigade’s tanks are here too, which is strange since this brigade is already very busy around Bakhmut.

As I had written last week, since late February the vast majority of the 21st Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army of the Central MD has been withdrawn to the rear, except for one battalion still active towards Orlivka (Avdiivka sector). Same identical situation for the 74th Motorized Brigade of the 41st Army (CMD). These brigades suffered greatly during the battle of Avdiivka in terms of losses, as did the 15th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army and the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps and, to a lesser extent, the 30th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army and the 55th Mountain Brigade of the 41st Army, which are continually being replenished with men of the regiments of the Territorial Forces to remain in combat. Although the Russians continue to have significant human and material resources around Avdiivka, it remains to be seen until when they can continue to sustain the intensity of current actions.

As for the 21st Motorized Brigade, Mashovets wrote that the 27th Motorized Division, one of the new formations I had listed in this comment last month, will be created on its basis. That it’s going to be part of the 2nd Army was already clear - today we know that it will be created on the basis of the 21st Motorized Brigade, which in all likelihood will cease to exist. Until 2009 there was already the 27th Motorized Division, which was then reformed into the 21st Brigade. Today Russian intentions are to return to a divisional model, and one compromise to allow for the creation of new divisions is not to create them from scratch but on the basis of existing brigades.

It’s therefore possible that the entirety of the brigade will be withdrawn and its remaining personnel and equipment will flow into the new 433rd Motorized Regiment of the 27th Division, currently undergoing training at the Trokhizbenka training camp, some 30 kms north-west of Luhansk, where they will have a refit and integrate new recruits and equipment. This regiment is to be ready by April 1 for Russian plans, with the likely goal of being taken into battle in the Avdiivka sector…

Meanwhile in Totskoye (Orenburg Oblast) the 506th and 589th Motorized Regiments of the 27th Division are being formed. This is, after all, where the barracks of the 21st Brigade are based (and where most of the 67th Motorized Division was formed last year). The skeleton of the brigade present at the base will thus flow into these regiments, which will be staffed by the new contract soldiers undergoing training. The goal is to finish the training phase by June 1. The new division will also include the 268th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment and the other usual support units, although it should not include a tank regiment, and will have an anti-aircraft missile battalion instead of a regiment.

Mashovets has always been extremely reliable about the pipeline of creation of new units and formations by the Russians. In early January he had mentioned the creation of the 44th Corps, which includes, for instance, the 72nd Motorized Division. Recently ads have appeared on Russian channels looking for contract servicemen for the 44th Corps, based in Luga (Leningrad Oblast). https://t.me/ordenbat/76

He expresses serious doubts that the Russians will be able to meet the pre-set deadlines, mainly because of bottlenecks in equipment. The 27th Division will be equipped to 90% of its nominal requirements. In any case, there are perplexities that the bulk of the new Russian strategic reserves being formed will be combat-ready by this summer.

For the rest, in the Avdiivka sector there is increasing use of elements of the 90th Tank Division, i.e. the formation in the best condition right now in the area. From Russian sources, its 6th Tank Regiment is active in Tonenke, which like Orlivka, is now overwhelmingly in Russian hands, and it appears that some small units of this regiment were transferred to the 114th Motorized Brigade. Russian sources also report the arrival of the 99th Mech Battalion of the Ukrainian 61st Mech Brigade and additional elements of the 143rd Infantry Brigade in the sector.

As a reminder, the Russian 10th Tank Regiment was recently transferred from the organic subordination to the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps to the 20th Motorized Division of the 8th Army of the Southern MD. This regiment in recent days has been transferred to the operational sector of the 20th Motorized Division (previously it was active in Tonenke), which is now therefore fully deployed between Marinka and Novomykhailivka and has become a standard motorized division (three motorized regiments and one tank regiment), with the recent creation of the 242nd Motorized Regiment. So this is the tank regiment that arrived in the Marinka sector mentioned yesterday by the [spokesman] (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/11/7445908/) of the OSG “Tavria”, who said that the Russians are intensifying their efforts in both the latter sector and in Velyka Novosilka.

In the Velyka Novosilka sector, subunits of the 5th Tank Brigade of the 36th Army of the Eastern MD have recently been deployed to the section of the front held by the 60th Motorized Brigade of the 5th Army of the Eastern MD, i.e. to the south of Staromaiorske, being transferred here from the rear of the other bank of the Mokri Yaly (which is the jurisdiction of the 36th Army). This brigade was an operational reserve during the summer counteroffensive in the sector, being deployed thereafter on a very limited basis. It represents one of the freshest and fully equipped units in the Russian Army, having around an hundred tanks according to Ukrainian estimates from this summer.

Let’s recall that the 1461st Regiment of the Territorial Forces (attached to the 36th Army) and detachments of the 14th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade have also arrived to the south of Staromaiorske in recent weeks, and possibly assault companies of the 57th Motorized Brigade of the 5th Army (currently in R&R near Berdiansk) will arrive too. All the units of the 127th Motorized Division of the 5th Army are currently active: the 394th Motorized Regiment in the direction of Staromaiorske (from the west), the 143rd Motorized Regiment in the direction of Rivnopil together with the 218th Tank Regiment, and the 114th Motorized Regiment lately has become quite active further west, in the direction of Chervone. In any case, it’s possible that the Russians are planning something against Staromaiorske, which the Ukrainians liberated in late July.

Syrsky today visited an Ukrainian command center in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and announced that despite the difficult situation, rotations are on the way. https://t.me/osirskiy/624

Activity by the UAV unit of the new 5th Tank Brigade (in this case, the Ukrainian one!) in the Orikhiv sector was recorded today. https://t.me/ButusovPlus/8771

Rybar had mentioned last week that the 1st Rifle Battalion of the 5th Tank Brigade had arrived in Orikhiv, along with additional elements of the 141st Infantry Brigade, a battalion of the 101st TDF Brigade and elements of the new 154th Mech Brigade (the latter two have to be confirmed yet, but it could be part of the rotation Syrsky mentioned). Let’s recall that Ukraine over the recent months has created a tank brigade and five mechanized brigades, which are to be deployed soon. Probably the rifle units of the 5th Tank Brigade are ready; one tank battalion has been formed with Slovenian M-55s, the others will likely have to wait for the delivery of Leopard 1A5s to complete their formation. The equipment shortage is no smaller than manpower’s.

Meanwhile, a small expansion in the National Guard continues. The 32nd Regiment has been reformed as the 17th Brigade and the 16th Battalion as the 34th Regiment. In any case, since a brigade of the NG consists of 3/4 maneuver battalions (2/3 in a regiment), we are talking about the creation of 2/3 additional battalions to the existing units, hardly something Ukraine can’t afford even in the current situation.

The organization should be the usual. When it comes to equipment, very, very hard to say. For the new units deployed in late 2023, it seems the standard has been to field BMP-2s as IFVs, in other cases BMP-1s or BTR-82As. Luckier units had access to newly produced BMP-3s. For tanks there is usually a mix: the same unit can have T-90Ms, T-72Bs having the lion’s share, and T-62Ms. The latter kind is increasingly common in the front line. Possibly in the future T-80BVs and BMP-2s will become scarce (some of the latters are being upgraded to the M version, just like for the formers), but the availability of T-72Bs and BMP-1s should still be guaranteed for a while. Certainly we will see more and more T-62Ms and vehicles such as BTR-70s and (Frankenstein) MT-LBs. With the best and/or lucky units getting access to the newly produced vehicles. The 40th Naval Infantry Brigade for example recently stated that it has access to T-80BVMs and BMP-3s straight from the plants. The production/upgrade of T-90Ms, T-80BVMs, T-72B3Ms, BMP-3s, BTR-82ATs (and BMD-4s, BTR-MDMs) is far smaller than Russian requirements, but it’s still definitely relevant. In any case, some new units of the VDV have been equipped with K-4386 “Typhoon-VDV” MRAPs for instance. Z-STS “Akhmat” MRAPs are a growing sight too, both in motorized units and VDV. But MRAPs are quite a weak point for Russia, both because they are not yet fully incorporated into their doctrine and because the domestically produced ones don’t come close to the quality and safety of most of the Western ones. Although they could be used for certain support roles, such as CASEVAC.