Kriegsforscher, a well-known UAV recon operator who works in the Avdiivka sector, claimed that the largest armored attack of the war took place yesterday, from Tonenke in the direction of Umanske, with 36 tanks and 12 BMPs. Whereas Russian sources claim that “only” 20 tanks were involved in the attack.

A part of these vehicles were destroyed or abandoned, as it’s evident from these geolocations (which include several Ukrainian losses).

Kriegsforscher wrote that the unit involved in the attack is the 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, which Russian sources already reported as being active in Tonenke for a couple of weeks. It supports the 1st Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps and other minor units of the 1st Corps and regiments of the Territorial Forces in the attacks from Tonenke. On the Ukrainian side there are elements of the 25th Airborne Brigade as well as the 53rd Mechanized Brigade.

Yesterday a Russian T-90M had been destroyed and geolocated along the fourth “longitudinal” forest belt to the west of Tonenke, around 2 kms west of the farm buildings in the western part of Tonenke that were captured around 10 days ago. Russian sources claim they had advanced up to the fifth forest belt during the assault but had to retreat and weren’t able to occupy any position along that forest belt. In general, the Russians are aggressively trying to advance, with some success. https://t.me/motopatriot/21144

Further north, the attack actions of the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps in Semenivka keep going on, in the western bank of the Durna. Yesterday, in connection with the discussion of a few days ago here about this matter, a video was published by the “Poisk in UA” Telegram channel and then translated by Dmitri from WarTranslated, showing yet another case of grievance by soldiers transferred to the 114th Brigade: in this case, by men of the 98th Rifle Regiment of the 1st Corps - I believe it’s one of the regiments of the mobilization reserve which are used as marching units to replenish manpower elsewhere: their company was transferred to the 114th Motorized Brigade. Their refusal to participate in additional attacks in Orlivka and in Semenivka resulted in the surviving members of the company being charged with desertion. It also looks like that the Coke Plant became an important Russian staging area for their attacks to the west.

Moreover, the 41st Army, recently reinforced by the 137th Motorized Brigade (also known as the 137th Assault Brigade per some Russian sources), continues its attack actions against both Semenivka and Berdychi, together with subunits of the 90th Tank Division and with support from the 3rd and the 24th Spetsnaz GRU Brigades.

[Happy Easter for those who celebrate]

To be honest, I don’t feel like guessing when or not the current pace of Russian attacks over the whole front line will end. In any case, what we are seeing all along the front is the Russian offensive itself: they are pushing in the vast majority of the sectors as we speak. They are raising new formations, but they are unlikely to be completely ready by the summer. For the rest, to make an accurate estimate we should know their actual situation regarding manpower and equipment, which is not easy to assess from the outside, so it’s hard to say whether there might be another Oct. ‘23 Avdiivka-style offensive in the coming months.

I don’t believe in offensive actions against Kharkiv in the short-medium term - if the Russians will be able to, they will likely continue and possibly expand their offensive actions in the direction of Lyman / Siversk / Chasiv Yar and/or in the direction of Pokrovsk / Kurakhove / Vuhledar, in my opinion.

I agree with your final assessment; the attack was aimed at Umanske and Yasnobrodivka. The Russians reported how the Ukrainians had several fortifications in the Umanske-Netailove line. Moreover, another goal of these attacks is to approach Pervomaiske from the north-east and finally close the matter with the latter village, which has been going on for a year and a half. Over the recent weeks there have been major Russian advances inside Pervomaiske, attacking from Pisky. Remembering the Russian attacks on Nevelske, the goal is also to approach Netailove from multiple directions.

We don’t have exact datas, but I think being a tankman is the relatively safest frontline job in this war (leaving out that for the vast, vast majority of the time they are in the rear). Yes, the cases of cook off are a thing, it happens and it’s terrible for the tankmen, but it seems that only a fraction of tank losses result in such case (I mean with the crew inside the vehicle).

From the videos it appears that most of the hits due to AT mines or even ATGMs (let alone FPV drones) are survivable (at least for a part of the crew - and well, less so for e.g. T-55As), and many of the destroyed tanks are actually tanks that were abandoned by their crew after being damaged and were finished later with grenades dropped from drones, FPV drones or ATGMs. And let’s not forget that tank crews, unlike infantrymen, have the permission to run to the rear if they leave the tank.

There are large differences in quality and training even among contract soldiers. In the recent months, the “meat” role required in the Russian infantry attacks is largely played by contract soldiers.

the real Russian Army has not been deployed yet.

Yeah, that’s ridiculous. Overall, anyway, today the majority (and an ever-increasing share) of their army deployed in Ukraine are contract servicemen, as convicts have been in short supply for a while and the amount of mobilized men is a monotonically decreasing function until a new mobilization wave is ordered.

An addition to your great comment: worth noting that the Soviet Army in the mid ’80s had about 50 tank divisions, not counting those of the mobilization reserve, while today the Russian Army has 3.