A few updates on the order of battle in Ukraine and on the frontline situation.
This morning the Ukrainian observer Mashovets wrote that the first elements of the new 44th Corps of the Leningrad Military District have just arrived along the state border in Kursk Oblast.
At the moment we are talking about one motorized battalion, one tank company and one artillery battery of the 128th Motorized Brigade; two motorized battalions, one tank battalion, the artillery group (tube, rocket and anti-aircraft defense) and minor support units of the 30th Motorized Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Division; and the 197th Separate Control Battalion. A total of 3650 men from this corps and 450 units of equipment were deployed, under the jurisdiction of the Group of Forces “North”. I suppose their short-to-medium-term objective is to cover the border. The GoF “North” thus exceeds 50 thousand men, a significant part of whom are conscripts, however - which makes me bearish about the possibility of offensive operations from the state border (Mashovets had estimated that an operation against Kharkiv would need the forces of an entire military district, thus at least 2/3 CAAs, and let’s remember that conscripts are not used for combat tasks on the Ukrainian territory).
Let’s recall that this corps is officially based between Leningrad Oblast and Karelia and includes the division and the brigade mentioned above + an artillery brigade, a rocket brigade and separate support units. The commander is, reportedly, Alexander Dembitsky, until now the deputy commander of the 1st GTA. It’s not clear to which CAA it belongs, possibly the 6th CAA.
Another very interesting thing reported by Mashovets is that an air assault battalion belonging to the 76th VDV Division (equipped with 22 BMD-2/4s, 11 BTR-MDs and 4 2S9 Nonas) has been transferred from the Orikhiv sector (where the whole division is deployed) to the Luhansk Oblast. With the aim of joining either the GoF “West” or the GoF “South”. At the moment there are no other details, but I personally consider it likely that the Russians intend to transfer the 76th VDV Division to the Bakhmut sector (let’s remember that Popasna is the main staging area for operations in this area), to use it as a second echelon for operations in the western bank of the Donets-Donbas Canal, around Chasiv Yar. After all, the 98th VDV Division has been directly involved in offensive operations in the direction of Chasiv Yar for 6 months now. This also confirms that the Orikhiv sector is a front of secondary importance to the Russians, having pushed the Ukrainians away from the heights between Novoprokopivka and Verbove, despite recent Russian tactical successes inside Robotyne. This was, however, to be expected after the dismantling of the GoF “Zaporizhzhia” in February, which was largely merged into the GoF “Dnepr” and to a lesser extent into the GoF “Vostok”.
Lastly, Mashovets wrote that 43 Russian fighter aircrafts and fighter-bombers were transferred from air bases near Ukraine (in Crimea, Voronezh and Rostov Oblasts and Krasnodar Krai) to more distant air bases (in Stavropol Krai, Astrakhan and Lipetsk Oblasts), due to fear of Ukrainian attacks. As a result, the grouping of Russian combat, special and military transport aircrafts located near the area of hostilities dropped from 303 to 280 units.
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1829
Moreover, the day before yesterday an assault group of the 11th VDV Brigade reached the Donets-Donbas Canal, in the area where it passes underground and in overground pipes, i.e. in the forest of the nature reserve south of the Kanal District of Chasiv Yar. This is not surprising at all: Russian forward positions were already near the canal as early as mid-April, and in any case it’s not clear whether the Russians have consolidated the gains along the canal. The 18th “Sloviansk” Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard (which arrived from the Kreminna sector) was recently transferred to this area. It’s a very delicate area and it will be crucial to prevent the Russians from gaining positions in the western bank. The 98th VDV Division continues to try to infiltrate the Kanal District, without success at the moment, however.
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5308
The eleventh brigade of Ukraine’s Offensive Guard was very recently created: the “Hart” Brigade, belonging to the State Border Guard Service, presumably raised on the basis of a detachment of Border Guards already active at the front. On April 24, the Verkhovna Rada approved an expansion of the manpower of the Border Guards, from 60 to 75 thousand servicemen.
As for the Ukrainian National Guard, MilitaryLand reports that the 16th Brigade, officially created in October, turned out to be an artillery brigade (the first such unit in the NG), receiving a batch of 2S22 Bohdanas. Within two months Ukraine went from producing 6 to 10 units per month of such SPG, and by the end of the year some Ukrainian analysts hope it will reach a production volume of 20 units per month.
With the transfer of the 100th Mechanized Brigade (formerly the 100th TDF Brigade) to the Avdiivka sector from the Serebrianka Forest, the latter place became basically entirely the responsibility of the National Guard (though still under the OTG “Lyman”, of course). Here the “Azov”, “Bureviy” and “Khartiia” Brigades and other smaller NG units are deployed. And indeed last week Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of the NG, visited his men’s positions in the Kreminna sector. The transfer of the 100th Mechanized Brigade (which had been holding the area near Dibrova for a year) has somewhat weakened the Ukrainians in that area, and the 164th Motorized Brigade of the 25th CAA has managed to gain a couple of Ukrainian squad-positions to the south of Dibrova, but we are talking about minor stuff. But in general the Serebrianka Forest was used as a pool from which to gather units to reinforce other sectors, especially by the Russians: during the fall and especially the winter the 90th Tank Division was entirely moved to Avdiivka from there, followed by the 137th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA. To reinforce their grouping in the Serebrianka Forest (consisting of the 169th Motorized Brigade of the 25th CAA, elements of the 201st Military Base of the Central MD and “Akhmat” detachments), elements of the 67th Motorized Division of the 25th CAA recently arrived, to which the 1234th Regiment of the Territorial Forces (mobilized men from Tatarstan) was attached. Last part below.
In the Avdiivka sector there are still no signs of stabilization. The most worrying section is the one between Novooleksandrivka and Arkhanhelske, which is the one with the least Ukrainian fortifications, by the way. The Russians (30th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd CAA, which is continuously resupplied with men and gear) are advancing northwards in this direction, to the east of Novooleksandrivka, according to DeepState. It’s clear that the Russians' main objective is to get as close as possible to Highway T0504 (Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut) in the direction of Nova Poltavka. The Ukrainian 115th Mechanized Brigade is active here, supported by several territorial defense battalions. Today Ukrainian channels have begun advising civilians against using this highway (the Russians are quite far from having direct fire control anyway, mind you).
https://t.me/stanislav_osman/5814
Between the day before yesterday and yesterday the Russians (132nd Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps) occupied all of Keramik and Novokalynove, taking positions north of the former village, while the 35th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA seized Hill 232, halfway between the latter village and Ocheteryne. The 115th Mechanized Brigade, elements of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade (including the 425th Assault Battalion “Skala”) and of the 142nd Infantry Brigade are active in this area.
Russian sources (Motopatriot, by far among the most decent ones) report they took control of the southern part of Arkhanhelske (there is no evidence to confirm this) and that they’re attacking Ukrainian strongpoints to the west of the village. Extremely fierce Ukrainian resistance is also reported over the control of the forest belt north of Ocheretyne, to avoid the potential flanking of Arkhanhelske.
https://t.me/motopatriot/22358
For the Ukrainian observer Myroshnykov, the Russians have begun to become active towards Oleskandropil (the village east of the H20 Highway), without success; for Mashovets it’s possible that the Russians in the future will shift their attentions in order to advance as far as possible along this highway to reach the Stara Mykolaivka - Sukha Balka line (where Ukrainian fortifications are present), as part of the development of the southern flank of a potential offensive operation against Toretsk.
The Russians (433rd Motorized Regiment of the 27th Motorized Division of the 2nd CAA) over the last days have approached an Ukrainian trench system south of Novooleksandrivka in the direction of Prohres, which is the forward outpost of the defense line that passes along the Vovcha River to the south (I recommend reading this thread by Clément Molin). The 100th Mechanized Brigade is active in this area.
The situation, overall, is very difficult: for Mashovets the Russians have a 3/4 fold advantage regarding gear and a 6 (!) fold advantage regarding manpower over the Ukrainians, as well as three reserve rifle regiments in the area (which I imagine are going to be used to replenish the units that are advancing) and he notes an exhaustion state for the Ukrainian grouping in this area. There is some arrival of reinforcements on the Ukrainian side, though. The spokesman of the OSG “Khortytsia” yesterday reported the 95th Air Assault Brigade as being active near Ocheretyne, so at least one battalion has been moved here (either from the Kreminna sector, where the bulk of the brigade is deployed, or it could be that battalion of the 95th Brigade that was previously committed near Pobjeda in the Marinka sector). Also, the “Achilles” UAV Battalion of the 92nd Assault Brigade has released videos showing itself in action around Ocheteryne. This brigade is one of the largest in the UAF and was so far deployed entirely in the Bakhmut sector. Perhaps, this could be an indication of a incoming redeployment of a maneuver battalion of the brigade in this area.
Minor Russian units such as the “Arbat” Battalion, the “Maksym Krivonos” Detachment, and the former PMC “Yastreb” are also active here. One thing I have noticed is that this offensive is, relatively, not-so-much mechanized and especially armored (while obviously the Russians are still heavily relying on IFVs/APCs to move), with infantry advancing along tree lines and without the massive armored attacks (and the following losses) that marked the advance of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Umanske/Yasnobrodivka, back in the last month. Possibly that might be due to the fact that the endowment of armored vehicles of the GoF “Centre” is far from optimal, especially with regard to tanks, although it’s about to receive the hundred BTR-82A(M)s which were previously deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Today a geolocation (of a video published by Syrsky) was released, showing Russian infantry (I assume from the 15th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd CAA) being shelled around 1,5 km west of the previous Russian positions in Soloviove, in the direction of Sokil, near a Ukrainian trench located halfway between the two villages. It’s not clear at all even to Russian sources, however, whether the Russians have consolidated control over this trench and how far they have actually advanced towards Sokil.
https://t.me/EjShahidenko/2557
https://t.me/motopatriot/22334
https://t.me/motopatriot/22373
In Soloviove, the 55th Mountain Brigade of the 41st CAA is moving along the Balka Ocheretina (a small stream, tributary of the Vovcha) in the direction of Novopokrovske; the 74th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA is attempting to occupy the forest belts to the west of Berdychi in the same direction, in both cases recording advances but finding strong opposition by the 47th Mechanized Brigade and its Bradleys, supported by elements of the 144th Infantry Brigade and several territorial defense battalions.
The 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps is being (yet again) replenished and in the next few days they could move to advance to the west of Semenivka, against the positions of the 68th Jager Brigade. In addition, the Russians have occupied the part of Orlivka in the western bank of the Durna.
Ah, just a thing I forgot to add. According to what Mashovets reported in early March, by June 1 (per Russian plans), the rest of the new 27th Motorized Division of the 2nd CAA of the Central Military District should be ready, despite some bottlenecks regarding equipment. We are talking about the 506th and 589th Motorized Regiments (which are being trained in Totskoye, Orenburg Oblast); the new division will also include the 268th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment as well as support units, although it’s not supposed to field a tank regiment, and will have an anti-aircraft missile battalion instead of a regiment.
The only unit of this division which is already active, as written above, is the 433rd Motorized Regiment… which is actually just the rebranding of the former 21st Motorized Brigade of the 2nd CAA.
The rest of the division, as soon as it’s combat-ready, will almost certainly be deployed in the Avdiivka sector. So in the future the Russians will have new tactical-operational reserves to exploit, in order to continue the pace of their offensive.
I had noticed it too, but honestly have no idea why. Perhaps some of these bases to which the planes were moved (which I did not mention, but they are in the linked Telegram post) might be classified as air bases directly serving the area of hostilities, unlike others.
That said, Mashovets doesn’t do OSINT, what he writes is what Ukrainian military intelligence reports to him.