A clarification: the estimate of 470k men did not include the Russian forces deployed along the state border (Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts), which numbered 33k men according to Ukrainian estimates back in March. As well as not including the strategic-operational reserves and the Rosgvardia grouping in Ukraine - 60k and 35k men, respectively, according to the latest Ukrainian estimates.

Once the Group of Forces “North” was created, the Ukrainians began to include it in the estimates on the number of Russian troops committed, in spite of the soldiers from this GoF being almost entirely deployed within Russian borders and it being largely made up of conscripts from military service.

This GoF, which encompasses formations of the Leningrad Military District, reached 50k men in early May. This was made possible by reinforcements arriving after the Ukrainian raids in March (the 18th Motorized Division of the 11th Corps, transferred from the Kupyansk sector; possibly the 2nd Spetsnaz GRU Brigade), the integration of part of the 6th CAA (at the moment, its 138th Motorized Brigade and other minor support units), as well as the arrival of the first elements of the new 44th Corps. The latters, after arriving in Kursk with 12 train convoys, have actually been deployed near the state border in Belgorod Oblast over the recent days. That’s where the bulk of the GoF “North” is concentrated - 31k men according to figures provided by the observer Mashovets, compared to nearly 11k in Kursk and just over 8k in Bryansk.

The transfer of the former units to the GoF “North”, on the other hand, “robbed” the GoF “West” of 8k men (in net terms), as well as of a quantity of armored vehicles and artillery guns. In “like-for-like” terms, the Russian grouping continues a growth of a handful of thousand men per month, on average.

As for the Ukrainians, there are no similar estimates produced by the Russians that I know of. But I have read several times from Ukrainian sources that the number of actual combat troops in their side is around 300k.

We don’t know exactly how much of an advantage Russia actually has regarding manpower, but I agree that overall it’s definitely still not enough to obtaining favorable conditions for plans like the ones you mentioned.

Yes, definitely. Syrsky is heavily streamlining the UAF in this regard. Although we have to consider that a relevant part of the support troops is actually very needed, and moreover a share of the servicemen performing these tasks are in their 50s if not 60s (if volunteers, in this case), so it’d be very difficult to turn them into infantrymen. If there’s a thing Ukrainian officers are constantly asking for is young infantrymen. But the population pyramid is what it is.