An update on the numerical size of the Russian Groups of Forces deployed along the front, according to datas published by the Ukrainian military observers Mashovets and Kovalenko over the past three weeks. I will not elaborate on their composition, having already discussed it here. The map I had made would look the same today, except that GoF “Belgorod” has now become GoF “North”, incorporating the GoFs “Bryansk” and “Kursk” and receiving reinforcements. It corresponds to most of the Leningrad Military District. Lapin commands both the latter and the GoF “North”. The figures don’t include the Rosgvardia grouping deployed in Ukraine (35k men), the strategic-operational reserves (60k men, according to the latest update), and the small GoF “Crimea” (13k men). After the table, there is my analysis on the development of the front over the past two weeks.

Kharkiv sector. On May 10, the Russians launched an offensive action in Kharkiv Oblast along a front of more than 40 kms, attacking mainly on two directions: Lyptsi and Vovchansk, along the Travyanske Reservoir and the Pechenihy Reservoir, respectively. According to the observer Mashovets, Russia’s main effort in this sector is the last direction.

Let’s first clarify the order of battle in this sector, according to Mashovets and the videos released in the recent days. In the first days of May a number of “Storm-V” detachments (those made up of convicts and assigned to the formations involved in attacks in the sector) had arrived near the border, along with the first elements of the new 44th Corps.

The 18th Motorized Division of the 11th Corps is attacking in the direction of Lyptsi. Obviously, not in its entirety. Elements of its 79th and 280th Motorized Regiments are involved, with support from its 11th Tank Regiment. Subunits of its 9th and 275th Motorized Regiments should also be committed. Elements of the 7th Separate Motorized Regiment of the 11th Corps are involved in the actions in this direction too.

Subunits of the 30th and 41st Motorized Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Division of the 44th Corps are attacking Vovchansk and the area around it, along with subunits of the 138th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA, with support from the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st GTA and the Kadyrovites of the “Zapad-Akhmat” Battalion. Elements of the 128th Motorized Brigade of the 44th Corps are in Belgorod Oblast as a reserve. In addition, detachments of the so-called “Africa Korps”, i.e. the heir of PMC Wagner, are also involved in the actions.

In the sector there are the 2nd Spetsnaz GRU Brigade and other Russian SF/SOF units too, which are mainly involved for reconnaissance and sabotage actions, through DRGs. The Russians have also widely increased these types of actions against Chernihiv and especially Sumy Oblasts to keep pressure on the Ukrainians.

Now let’s clarify a few issues, before moving on to the Ukrainian order of battle. I urge to doubt those who write (usually unserious journalists) “the Russians have gathered 50k men to attack Kharkiv” or “there are X Russians with Y tanks ready to attack this city”. It doesn’t work that way. This is not a medieval battle with all these men attacking at dawn. In first place, a part of these troops are in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts. A part is needed regardless to hold the front, and a part of this grouping is also made up of conscripts, who cannot perform combat operations outside Russian territory. For some reason the Russians chose to speed up operations against Kharkiv while still being relatively weak in the field (although the Ukrainians did not excel in terms of defensive capabilities either).

The Ukrainian observer Myroshnykov had warned of possible Russian attacks against Vovchansk in early May. I personally did not expect Russian attacks along the Kharkiv River, I thought they would be concentrating in the area between the Siversky Donets and the Oskil and only after the GoF “North” reached a larger strength. But that’s it, and besides that area is logistically lame for the Russians, while their logistics in the area of current operations, which boasts direct connections from Belgorod, is very good.

Kharkiv is not directly threatened by these operations. The 44th Corps still has to conclude its formation and its deployment in the sector. The CAA which according to Russian plans will be raised on the basis of the 14th Corps still has to be formed; its brigades (which should become divisions) are still fighting in other sectors. The Russians absolutely don’t have the strength in the sector to threaten the city of Kharkiv. This could change in the coming months if all the new and existing formations of the Leningrad MD merge into this sector along with at least a part of the 1st GTA and/or VDV formations, but at the moment being this risk is not there. In any case, it’s a full-fledged offensive operation and the Russian MoD has begun to treat the GoF “North” like the rest of the other GoFs, publishing daily updates provided by its spokesman etc, which did not happen before.

Moreover, even in the early days there has been a rush by Russian and pro-Russian sources to write “X Ukrainian unit is coming to Kharkiv - Ukrainians are forced to take troops from other sectors!”. Well, in the first two/three days of fighting the Ukrainians who were involved in the battle were either already in that area or at least were in Kharkiv Oblast, since teleportation has not yet been invented.

First of all, the area between the Kharkiv River and the Siversky Donets was the responsibility of the 125th TDF Brigade of the city of Lviv. The area between the Siversky Donets and the Oskil is covered by the “Stalevy Kordon” Brigade of the State Border Guard Service and by elements of the 5th “Slobozhansk” Brigade of the National Guard. The area north and west of Kharkiv (the area around Kozacha Lopan) is covered by the 113th TDF Brigade of Kharkiv Oblast; going further west, the area around Velyka Pysarivka is covered by the 105th TDF Brigade of Ternopil Oblast. The rest of the Russian border is covered by other TDF brigades, TDF battalions, regiments of the National Guard, detachments of Border Guards, and battalions of the brigades of the UAF that are in R&R.

The clashes of the first days were dealt with largely by the men of the territorial defense and by border guards. As for the latter, border guards from the 1st (Donetsk Oblast), 4th (Kharkiv Oblast) and 7th (Lviv Oblast) Detachments of the State Border Guard Service are active in the area attacked by the Russians.

According to Ruslan Mykula (one of the two founders of DeepState), the soldiers of the 125th TDF Brigade did their duty, despite the fact that the initial weight of the attacks fell on them. According to him there is much to be said negatively, however, about the command of this brigade, which did little to prepare the unit to repel a Russian attack in this direction. The commander of the Operational-Tactical Grouping “Kharkiv” (Halushkin) was removed and in his place Drapatyi was appointed (until then the Deputy Chief of the General Staff), who seems to register positive assessments from the Ukrainians.

Let’s make this clear: the villages immediately along the border (such as Strilecha) were grey area. There was no one there. It’s not possible to fortify areas so close to the border. Which is the reason why as soon as offensive operations began, it felt like the Russians simply “walked in”. In addition, the area was “virgin”, both in terms of material and non-material defensive infrastructure (not just fortifications: also EW systems, for example), as well as in terms of coordination skills on the part of the units that were there (scarce reconnaissance capabilities, lack of coordination with artillery or mortars after spotting a group of Russians etc). Now that other units are moving into the sector and troop density is increasing, these problems are fading.

The 131st Battalion of the 112th TDF Brigade and the 170th and 172nd Battalions of the 120th TDF Brigade, and possibly other TDF battalions, should also be in the sector. Let’s also clarify another issue. A part of the battalions of Ukrainian mech (etc.) brigades which are fighting in the hot sectors in the East or in the South are cyclically undergoing R&R while the rest of the brigade is fighting. It sometimes happens that this R&R is carried out along the state border with Russia, because this allows the battalion to kill two birds with one stone: it can recover its combat capabilities and accustom its recruits to war, in the context of low attrition levels, and meanwhile they guard the border against Russian DRGs. This is also true for the Russians: according to Kriegsforscher (the famous Ukrainian UAV operator), a battalion of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th VDV Division, which is heavily engaged against Chasiv Yar with the rest of the division, is in the Kharkiv sector to cover the border. Second part below.

For instance, elements of the 42nd Mech Brigade were already in Kharkiv Oblast (certainly its artillery group and its UAV unit, likely maneuver elements too). I knew they were there even before Russian operations began. One of my favorite ways to find out where elements of Ukrainian brigades are deployed is to search for, in this case, “бригада Харківському напрямку” on Facebook (brigade Kharkiv direction) and look for recent results, which will usually bring out crowdfunding activities for several brigades or MIA notices (for which there are specific groups too). What may happen in such cases is that the brigade whose battalion is responding to the attack may “accept the battle”, or be called upon to do so by the OSG, transferring the rest of the brigade as well. The 42nd Mech Brigade had been fighting near Chasiv Yar for months until it was moved in mid-March for recovery. Elements went to Kharkiv Oblast, other elements went to fight in the Avdiivka sector. In the future we will see if the rest of the brigade will be moved to Kharkiv.

Also in Kharkiv Oblast there was a battalion each from a number of brigades of the Air Assault Forces (71st, 79th, 80th, 82nd). A Stryker has been seen in the rear of the sector, so from one of the last two brigades. Elements of the 71st Jager Brigade are working together with the 57th Motorized Brigade to defend Vovchansk. As I said above, we will know in the future whether they will be reinforced by the rest of their brigades. There may also be a battalion from the 54th Mech Brigade in the sector.

Of course, actual reinforcements are coming. For example, the 22nd Motorized Battalion of the 92nd Assault Brigade should be arriving these days, joining the 1st Assault Battalion of the same brigade, which was probably already in Kharkiv Oblast. The UAV Battalion “Achilles” of the 92nd Assault Brigade has also arrived in Kharkiv. Elements of the 57th Motorized Brigade have arrived at the end of the last week and are defending Vovchansk: at least its 1st Rifle Battalion and its 34th Motorized Battalion (in this case, they moved from Kupyansk); elements of the “Khartiia” Brigade of the National Guard are also arriving from the Serebrianka Forest. The next few days will help to clarify the situation regarding reinforcements; then much will depend on the intensity of Russian attacks. The National Police of Vovchansk is participating in the battle for the town; according to the daily bulletin of the Russian MoD, elements of the 23rd Mech Brigade are in the sector, but I have found no evidence in favor of this. Russian sources claim that the “Lyut” Brigade of the National Police is being transferred to the sector, but I can find no evidence. According to my findings, the 101st Guard Brigade Of General Staff could have been moved to the sector.

The new 88th Mech Brigade is likely in Kharkiv Oblast; its Telegram page had stated that its artillery group is participating in repelling Russian attacks in Kharkiv. From what I have found on Ukrainian social media, elements of the new 150th and 151st Mech Brigades may be in Kharkiv Oblast, but I have no evidence to state they are involved in the fighting. As for the 151st, another post wrote that it was in Zaporizhzhia Oblast… We shall see.

The HUR intervened from the beginning; Budanov said that among the units of the HUR, those who are not in Chasiv Yar are in Kharkiv. In the latter sector there are elements of the “Kraken” Special Detachment, the “Tymur” Special Unit, as well as the Russian Volunteer Corps, which is fighting inside Vovchansk. The 2nd Assault Detachment of the “Omega” Group (the SF unit of the National Guard), already in the area, was among the first units to react to the Russians.

The Russians don’t have a sustained human advantage in the area. As for the settlements, in the Lyptsi direction the Russians captured the villages of Strilecha, Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Pylna and Borysivka; the day before yesterday they took Hlyboke and on Sunday, Lukyantsi. Zelene, unlike what looked like at first, is under Ukrainian control. In general, it is too early to be able to speak of stabilization, but now the Russians have to advance into areas covered by the Ukrainians and no longer into grey areas, losing the initial momentum. There is currently hard fighting in the northern part of the dachas to the east of the Travyanske Reservoir, between Hlyboke and Lyptsi. No Russian successes are recorded towards Ternova.

In the direction of Vovchansk, the Russians are attacking both the urban area of the town and its flanks. To the west of the Siversky Donets, after occupying Ohirtseve, they should have occupied both Buhruvatka and Starytsia yesterday, coming along the course of the small river with the same name as the last settlement.

In the east of the Siversky Donets, after occupying Hatyshche and Pletenivka, they entered the north-eastern outskirts of Vovchansk, arriving along the course of the Vovcha River. Inside Vovchansk, bitter urban fighting is going on; both Russians and Ukrainians are bringing heavy equipment into the area. The situation is not very clear; certainly the Russians control the meat processing plant and the northern end of the town, and are pushing southwards: they probably approached the Vovchansk Central District Hospital and the Kindergarten No. 6 today. In any case, it must be considered that the town is cut in two, horizontally, by the Vovcha River, which somewhat forms a line of defense. Russian sources state the Ukrainians have restored the T2104 Road on the Staryi Saltiv Dam that had been hit by the Russians during the end of last week.

Kupyansk sector. To prevent transfer of Ukrainian reinforcements to Kharkiv, the Russians stepped up attacks in this sector and in the Svatove sector. The 25th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA, elements of the 7th Separate Motorized Regiment of the 11th Corps and several regiments of the Territorial Forces resumed attacks in the direction of Synkivka. The Ukrainian observer Myroshnykov wrote today that the Russians were able to retake the northern end of the village, as they had managed to do months ago. A part of the Ukrainian 116th Mech Brigade, which had been moved here in late April from the Orikhiv sector, is near Synkivka (where it has joined the 14th and 32nd Mech Brigades, the 1st and 2nd Mech Battalions of the 30th Mech Brigade and the 108th Battalion of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade), while another part is fighting in the Kyslivka area.

Earlier this month the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st GTA managed to occupy the latter village in its entirety, after the 272nd Motorized Regiment of the same division had taken Kotlyarivka in late April. The 103rd TDF Brigade and elements of the 104th TDF Brigade together with elements of the 3rd and 4th Tank Brigades are defending the area, along with the 43rd Mech Brigade, which is defending the area north of Kyslivka (around Ivanivka). No further Russian advances have been reported.

Svatove sector. The Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade is holding positions in the area between Berestove and Stelmakhivka (south of it, in the Miasozharivka/Andriivka area, there should be the 44th Mech Brigade), which are being attacked respectively by elements of the 2nd Motorized Division of the 1st GTA and the 27th Motorized Brigade of the 1st GTA, without success.

The 423rd Motorized Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st GTA is attacking Stelmakhivka from the south-east, achieving an advance of just over 1 km during the last week.

Elements of the 3rd Assault Brigade have been deployed between the Svatove and Kreminna sectors: its 1st and 2nd Mech Battalions are successfully repelling attacks by the 752nd Motorized Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Division of the 20th CAA near Novojehorivka, while the 66th Mech Brigade and elements of the 107th TDF Brigade are repelling attacks by the 252nd Motorized Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Division against Makiivka

Kreminna sector. The 2nd Assault Battalion of the 3rd Assault Brigade is active in Terny, joining the Ukrainian grouping in this area against attacks by the 144th Motorized Division of the 20th CAA against Terny and Yampolivka. Russian progress in this area has completely stalled for the past two months - in the last two weeks the Russians have been pushing further north, against Novosadove, but again without success. There is also no Russian progress in the Serebrianka Forest, and attacks in the direction of Torske by units of the 25th CAA have been repulsed by the 60th and 63rd Mech Brigades. As far as I have found, at least elements of the 115th Mech Brigade have been moved from Avdiivka to somewhere in the Kreminna and Svatove sectors.

Siversk sector. There has been no Russian advance against Bilohorivka (attacked by the 7th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps) in recent weeks, thanks to the capable work of the 81st Airmobile Brigade. However, the Russians have intensified attacks in the southern slope of the Siversk salient, by the 106th VDV Division. Per DeepState, last week the Russians managed to cross the Sokha Plotva River inside Vesele and move towards the heights north of the settlement; DeepState also mentions exhaustion issues of the brigade defending this area, namely the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, which has been fighting in this sector for a year and a half. According to what I found, it should have received the 421st Separate Rifle Battalion as a reinforcement. Last part below.

Bakhmut sector. Yesterday the Russians occupied, according to DeepState, the area of the cattle breeding buildings and the fortifications around them, reaching the gates of Kalinina, despite a successful counterattack in the forest south-east of Kalinina by a battalion of the 24th Mech Brigade in the previous days.

According to Mashovets, the 98th VDV Division this week received over 200 stormtroopers with which to continue assault operations against Chasiv Yar. In the past few days the Russians have advanced a bit along the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar railway and occupied part of the area of the holiday cottages between the railway and the Kanal District. Yesterday Russian armored vehicles reached Zelena Street, in the area east of the intersection with Horbatoho Street. However, there is no evidence of Russian control over the buildings east of the intersection, which are probably grey area.

Further south, the 11th VDV Brigade reached the Donets-Donbas Canal also in the area where Highway T0504 passes over it (the bridge was destroyed in March 2023), in the direction of Stupochky. The Russians are not successful south of Ivanivske. A Russian Telegram channel had written that in this area the Ukrainians are favored by the presence of spillway tunnels from the canal that come out in the forest east of the canal, and are empty, given the low level of the canal. I don’t know about the existence of such tunnels, but Ukrainian sources had written that the water in the canal reaches only up to the knees.

Russian attacks against Klishchiivka and Andriivka by the 85th and 88th Motorized Brigades of the 2nd Corps and the 72nd Motorized Brigade of the 3rd Corps together with the 83rd VDV Brigade, respectively, were repelled. In general, in this area the Ukrainians are doing a very good job and the Russians have been beating their heads for months. In the area there are most of the 93rd Mech Brigade and of the 92nd Assault Brigade (at the moment), the 22nd Mech Brigade, the 2nd Battalion of the 80th Air Assault Brigade and elements of the 115th TDF Brigade and of the 5th “Slobozhansk” Brigade of the National Guard. Per the observer Mashovets, the Russians are finally forming the 54th Motorized Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps, which should be ready by June 1 and should be brought into battle in this area. I write finally because there had been rumors about the formation of this unit (as well as the 52nd Motorized Regiment) as part of this division for over a year, but then nothing more had been heard about it.

Horlivka sector. Nothing to write.

Avdiivka sector. During the past two weeks there have been clear signs of stabilization. The 110th Mech Brigade arrived near Novooleksandrivka at the beginning of the month, replacing much of the 115th Mech Brigade; the recon unit of the “Khartiia” Brigade of the National Guard also arrived along with the 467th Rifle Battalion of the 143rd Infantry Brigade, as well as elements of the 2nd “Galician” Brigade of the National Guard. No more Russian advances were recorded in the direction of Kalynove or Novooleksandrivka; per Russian sources (Motopatriot), the Russians took the “O”-shaped trench west of Arkhanhelske and the trench south-east of Novooleksandrivka, but there is no evidence to confirm this. There were no further Russian advances towards Sokil (the trench between the latter settlement and Soloviove is still in Ukrainian hands) and towards Novopokrovske along the Balka Ocheretina, thanks to the work of the 47th Mech Brigade, which has a number of separate rifle and TDF battalions attached to it, such as the 134th Battalion of the 114th TDF Brigade as well as the 168th and the 171st Battalions of the 120th TDF Brigade. South-east of Novopokrovske, a counterattack by the 68th Jager Brigade allowed them to regain ground slightly and interrupted Russian advances. Between the latter settlement and Umanske the 68th Jager Brigade is conducting battles along the forest belts to prevent the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps from advancing westwards. There should still be minor elements of the 3rd Assault Brigade in the area, to which the 474th Rifle Battalion of the 144th Infantry Brigade is attached.

Last week the Russians (114th Motorized Brigade of 1st Corps) arrived at the center of Umanske (in the part of the village north of Durna); the Ukrainians likely control only the western end of the village. The southern part of the village is likely a grey area: in recent days the Russians cut the Umanske-Netailove Road, just south of Umanske.

In Netailove the situation is very difficult. Elements of the 25th Airborne Brigade and of the 59th Motorized Brigade are defending the village, and a battalion of the 28th Mech Brigade recently arrived from the Bakhmut sector. The Russians in the last week have captured the secondary school along with the high rises around it, and have advanced into the industrial area south of the village; they (9th Motorized Brigade of 1st Corps) are close to reaching the intersection with the road to Umanske. In Nevelske the situation is no better. The Russians have succeeded, advancing from Pervomaiske, in capturing the Ukrainian positions west of the “Republica Mist” checkpoint, along the Balka Domakha (after the Russian advances inside Pervomaiske, this area had been an Ukrainian salient for several months), with the aim of attacking Nevelske from the north and the north-east.

Marinka sector. The situation in Krasnohorivka is ugly. The 5th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps has consolidated control over the brick factory, capturing the cultural center in the center of the town in recent days. The 110th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps last week managed to occupy positions along the north-eastern part of Krasnohorivka and captured the Ukrainian fortifications east of the town. The Russians control about half of Krasnohorivka. In the town there are the 3rd Battalion of the 80th Air Assault Brigade and elements of the TDF; it appears that a large part of the urban combat is being carried out by the 105th Detachment of Border Guards of the Chernihiv Oblast.

In Heorhiivka elements of the 150th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA continue to attack towards the center of the village, which is defended by the 46th Airmobile Brigade. It’s unclear whether there are Russian successes or not. To the west and to the south of Pobjeda, counterattacks by the 33rd Mech Brigade are underway, against the positions of the 20th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA, in order to stabilize the situation in the area.

The Russians (155th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 39th Motorized Brigade of 68th Corps) attacked Paraskoviivka from Novomykhailivka this week, reaching the gates of the village, but overall the attacks were repulsed by the 79th Air Assault Brigade, which keeps doing a very good job. The 57th Motorized Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of 3rd Corps, as far as I could find on Russian social media, should be active in this rea.

Vuhledar sector. The 36th Motorized Brigade of the 29th CAA advanced about 1 km to the north-west, in the area of the limestone quarry north-east of Volodymyrivka (where the front forms almost a right angle).

Velyka Novosilka sector. The 36th CAA (specifically, the 37th Motorized Brigade and 5th Tank Brigade) and elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, with support from the 14th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade, continues to push against Urozhaine, which is defended by the 58th Motorized Brigade and elements of the Separate Presidential Brigade. The Russians had successes in the farms south of the village, and probably control a few houses in the southern end.

In the western bank of Mokri Yaly, the 394th Motorized Regiment of the 127th Motorized Division of the 5th CAA and the 60th Motorized Brigade of the same army are attacking Staromaiorske, defended by the 21st Brigade of the National Guard and by the 128th TDF Brigade. There are successes: in the last week they have occupied the forest belts west of the village and also the southern part of the village itself, including the secondary school.

The 127th TDF Brigade, together with elements of the 106th, of the 129th and possibly of the 123rd TDF Brigades and with support from the 1st Tank Brigade, is repelling attacks by the 143rd Motorized Regiment and the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Division in the direction of Rivnopil and Novodarivka.

Orikhiv sector. Russian sources today claimed to have fully recaptured Robotyne, but this is false. There is Russian presence in the western and in the southern part of the village, including the post office. The Ukrainians have a presence in the central part and control the north-eastern part. In general, the situation is very fluid. The 71st Motorized Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Division of the 58th CAA is active in the built-up area of the settlement while the 70th Motorized Regiment of the same division is attacking the Ukrainian stroing points in the “heights” east of Robotyne.

The 108th Assault Regiment of the 7th VDV Division last week advanced a few hundred meters westwards, to the south-west of Novopokrovka. DeepState this week recorded a major Russian advance north-west of Verbove, but it is simply a recognition of Russian successes in that area over the past few months, not a new development.

Kamyanske sector. Nothing to write.

Kherson sector / Dnipro River. The situation in Krynky is stable. The Russians (61st Naval Infantry Brigade) should have retaken the Nestryha Island, at the mouth of the Dnipro.