Time for a new update about the tactical situation of the front in Ukraine and on the events of the last month. Today I will comment on the sectors from Kupyansk to Horlivka, and tomorrow on those from Avdiivka to the Dnipro River. As usual, my main sources are the Ukrainian military observators Mashovets and Kovalenko, several Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels (e.g. WarArchive for geolocations) and of course DeepState, in addition to social medias for MIA notices for both sides, which are very useful especially for locating units. I suggest having a map under eye while reading, for instance DeepState or Andrew Perpetua’s.
Kupyansk sector. According to Mashovets, the bulk of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st GTA (= Tank Army) of the Moscow Military District is being transferred here from the Kreminna sector, where it had been moved a couple of months ago, with the aim of replacing the 18th Motorized Division of the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet and supporting the offensive actions of the 6th CAA (= Combined Arms Army) of the Leningrad MD. Elements of the 272nd Motorized Regiment of the 47th Tank Division arrived in Tavilzhanka, with the task to be committed in action in the area near Lyman Pershyi, along with the 138th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA. Over the past week the 25th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA resumed attacks against Synkivka, which have been going on for months and months, but again without any success. Indeed, over the past month the Ukrainians have likely recaptured the northern end of the village.
On the Ukrainian side, the 32nd Mechanized Brigade was transferred to Synkivka from the area near Ivanivka, probably in order to replace the 115th Mech Brigade, which recently went to Avdiivka.
The 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division and the 347th Regiment of the Territorial Forces (attached to this division) were deployed between Pershotravneve and Yahidne. In the rear, the 744th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 47th Tank Division also arrived from Kreminna. At the moment it appears that, among the other units of this formation, the 153rd Tank Regiment may still be in Kreminna, while the 245th Motorized Regiment, currently along the state border in Belgorod, might arrive in the future.
As for the actions in Belgorod last month, those with the highest intensity were the work of the Russian Volunteer Corps and of the Siberian Battalion, from Velyka Pysarivka in the direction of Grayvoron. Today the raids have come to an halt and the (weak) intensity of the fighting along the border returned to the usual pace. As I wrote above, it’s reported that additional elements of the 18th Motorized Division are being transferred along the state border in Belgorod Oblast, whereas in recent months this division has provided support to the 6th CAA in the Kupyansk sector.
The offensive actions of the 2nd Motorized Division of the 1st GTA in the area around Tabaivka were completely contained by the 103rd TDF Brigade together with the 17th Battalion of the 57th Motorized Brigade and elements of the 3rd Tank Brigade, which have replaced the 67th Mech Brigade (which halted the Russian breakthrough during February), which was transferred to Bakhmut.
Svatove sector. The 423rd Motorized Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st GTA recently carried out attacks from Dzherelne towards Andriivka, against the positions of the 44th Mech Brigade, without success. A little further north, in the Novoselivske area, the 77th Airmobile Brigade recently arrived and replaced the 25th Airborne Brigade, which was moved to Avdiivka. The bulk of the 68th Jager Brigade was transferred to Avdiivka too, and it’s unclear by whom they were replaced - potentially by elements of the TDF. In any case, the section of the front it covered (Nadiia/Novojehorivka), affected by the Russian offensive of the summer, is now very quiet, and on the Russian side there are minor units such as the 380th Regiment of the Territorial Forces.
Kreminna sector. The Russian offensive in the direction of Terny and Yampolivka continues, representing by far the largest Russian effort north of Bakkhmut. The entire 144th Motorized Division (20th CAA, MMD) is attacking in the direction of Terny, supported by the 252nd Motorized Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Division (20th CAA), transferred here last month from the Svatove sector, and the assault detachments of the 752nd Motorized Regiment of the same division. Around a month ago, the Russians had managed to advance more than 1 km along the forested ravine (which the Russians call “Pike”), i.e. the first of the series of ravines to the east of Terny.
In the directions of Yampolivka, elements of the 67th Motorized Division (25th CAA, CMD) are attacking, supported by several detached battalions of all the three divisions (2nd, 4th, 47th) of the 1st GTA. As I wrote last week, there is some evidence that servicemen of the 67th Motorized Division were sent to Avdiivka, possibly some assault detachments or to replenish the units deployed in Avdiivka - but there is no evidence yet to state that units from this division were transferred to Avdiivka. Russian sources indicate that in the last week the 20th CAA has taken over some positions from the 25th CAA along the ravine known to the Russians as “Alligator”, the one south of the “Pike”.
In the past month, the Russians have made no progress towards Terny, other than a positional one, despite Russian rumors from time to time that they are entering Terny - which are denied by Russian channels that have contact with their soldiers in the field. The Russians never managed to take positions in the forested ravine known as “Mitten”, south of “Alligator”. The intensity of the fighting is very high, as are the human and material losses. The Ukrainians are offering valiant and stubborn resistance, despite the fact that they are fighting in topographically disadvantageous conditions (it’s the Russians who have the elevation advantage here, as they’re coming down from the watershed). The large Ukrainian grouping in this sector over the past month has been joined by the 2nd Mech Battalion of the 93rd Mech Brigade, the bulk of the 95th Air Assault Brigade, and elements of the “Azov” and “Bureviy” Brigades of the National Guard, which arrived from the Serebrianka Forest. The reason the Ukrainians are tenaciously defending this area is that losing it would probably mean losing the other positions east of the Zherebets and the Serebrianka Forest.
In the latter place, the intensity of clashes has decreased compared to 2023 and also to the past months, as both the Ukrainians and the Russians have removed numerous units from the forest in favor of other areas. The Russian units currently deployed in the forest are likely the 169th Motorized Brigade of the 25th CAA, the elements of the 201st Military Base that are deployed in Ukraine and several “Akhmat” units, such as the 204th Regiment of the “Akhmat Special Forces”, which have been moved to the forest over the recent months to partly make up for the relocation of other units elsewhere. Currently, “Akhmat” detachments are fighting in the Serebrianka Forest, Bilohorivka and Klishchiivka.
Siversk sector. The 7th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps (8th CAA, Southern MD) recently had some successes in Bilohorivka, which is defended by the 81st Airmobile Brigade (along with a battalion of the 119th TDF Brigade). The Russians captured several Ukrainian trenches to the west and south of the chalk processing plant, and in recent days they have been geolocated climbing along the chalk quarry, the eastern part of which hosts a number of Ukrainian observation/ATGM points. Last week, the Russians also captured a tree line south of the chalk quarry, which is beginning to be surrounded on three sides.
From what I have read from Ukrainian sources, Russian drone activity in this area is very high (including FPV drones) and as a consequence the rotations are difficult, with many movements being spotted.
Further south, the 6th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps attacked the Ukrainian positions along the heights east of Verkhnokamyanske, which are covered by elements of the 54th Mech Brigade and of the 118th TDF Brigade, reaching the trenches system halfway between Zolotarivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
Still further south, during the current month there were Russian successes in the direction of Vyimka, which is the area covered by the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade. The 123rd Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps advanced more than 1 km along the Siversk-Nyrkove railway and east of it, approaching an Ukrainian trenches system; while, west of the railway, the 51st Airborne Regiment advanced about 1 km, capturing an Ukrainian trench located 2 kms north of Vesele, a village that is currently under Russian control up to the Sukha Plotva River.
The 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th VDV Division is trying to advance towards Rozdolivka, but in this case with little success. In any case, it is clear that the liquidation of the Siversk salient is one of the Russian priorities in the long-term plan to approach the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk conurbation (and also Lyman).
Bakhmut sector. The 98th VDV Division continues its offensive in the direction of Chasiv Yar, advancing 2 kms in the last three weeks. A week ago its 331st Airborne Regiment succeeded in reaching the Kanal District (the neighborhood of Chasiv Yar located to the east of the Donets-Donbas Canal), with support from the 215th Separate Recon Battalion of the 98th VDV Division. Russian paratroopers reportedly took control of several buildings at the eastern end of the district. Chasiv Yar is defended by the 67th Mech Brigade, entirely transferred here during the second half of March.
The Russians also crossed the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar railway, reaching the southern part of Bohdanivka and forcing the Ukrainians to abandon their positions in the center of the village in order to avoid a risk of encirclement, allowing the 200th Motorized Brigade of the 14th Corps of the Arctic Fleet, supported by the “St. George” Assault and Recon Brigade of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps, to seize the entire settlement. The Ukrainians (elements of the 56th Motorized Brigade and of the 142nd Infantry Brigade, plus one battalion each from the 24th and 93rd Mech Brigades) retreated to the trenches in the area of the farm, halfway between Bohdanivka and Kalinina. On the northern flank of Bakhmut the bulk of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps is concentrated, which encompasses numerous former Russian volunteer units or PMCs. Last month the “Veterans” Assault and Recon Brigade had been moved here from Avdiivka – now, per official brigade’s sources, has been moved to the rear for R&R, being replaced by the “Hispaniola” Assault and Recon Brigade, which is back in action.
The 217th and 299th Airborne Regiments of the 98th VDV Division are advancing south of the Kanal District, in the nature reserve “Stupky-Golubovski 2”, managing to occupy part of the forested area east of the canal. As I had written a few days ago, I believe the Russians' priority at the moment is to occupy the Kanal District and reach the canal over an area as large as possible. The 98th VDV Division has been conducting offensive actions since the beginning of November, and as much as it has proven to be a capable formation and among the most successful of the RuAF, I have my doubts that it will be able to continue offensive actions against the western bank of the canal in the future, and I believe that as much as the Russian grouping around Bakhmut is very large, there will be a need for reinforcements to directly target Chasiv Yar.
The 11th VDV Brigade is attacking from the northern part of Ivanivske with the goal of advancing along Road T0504 in the direction of Stupochky. In recent weeks the Ukrainians had been able to stem the Russian advance and stabilize the situation in Ivanivske, but with the Russian advance over the last week the situation in the village for the Ukrainians has become considerably complicated and it is possible that soon the area of the settlement may be abandoned altogether, with the Ukrainians withdrawing along the canal. The 102nd Motorized Regiment and elements of the 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Division (8th CAA, SMD) are attacking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Ivanivske from the east.
The Ukrainian units that have defended and are defending the area east of the Kanal District and around Ivanivske in recent weeks are numerous: the 42nd Mech Brigade (with the the 214th Special Battalion OPFOR and the 114th TDF Brigade attached to it), elements of the 5th and 92nd Assault Brigades, a battalion of the 115th TDF Brigade and elements of the 241st TDF Brigade, the 17th Tank Brigade, elements of the 80th Air Assault Brigade; recently elements of the 28th Mech Brigade arrived from Kurdyumivka, to which elements of the 112th TDF Brigade were attached. The 1st Mech Battalion of Separate Presidential Brigade has also arrived, joining the other three battalions of this brigade present in the area; along with the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, in this case from Avdiivka. In case of Russian success, it’s likely that these units will withdraw to the Ukrainian trenches along the western bank of the canal.
In the heights north-west of Klishchiivka, the 4th and 85th Motorized Brigades of the 2nd Corps are trying both to occupy Hill 215, along with the part of the extensive trenches system in Ukrainian hands, and to move up, further west, in the direction of Hill 227 - in both cases unsuccessfully.
Klishchiivka is also being attacked from the side of the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway by the 88th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps, the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps (formed by the 1008th, 1194th and 1307th Regiment of the Territorial Forces), along with other regiments of the Territorial Forces Regiments such as the 1428th and the 1442nd, with support of the 83rd VDV Brigade and the 346th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade. No success is recorded for the Russians, thanks to the work of the bulk of the 93rd Mech Brigade, the 5th Assault Brigade, the 22nd Mech Brigade and elements of the 5th “Slobozhansk” Brigade of the National Guard.
The Russians, even the most optimistic channels, report a difficult situation around Klishchiivka, with Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery being very active. After all, the facts speak for themselves: virtually no significant Russian progress in recent months in the face of constant assaults, extremely costly in human terms. Should the Ukrainians lose the area around Ivanivske, however, it will not be easy for the Ukrainians to keep, and especially resupply, the area around Klishchiivka.
Russian attacks towards Andriivka by the 72nd Motorized Brigade of the 3rd Corps and the 7th Military Base (49th CAA, SMD) also ended without success, thanks to the work of the 92nd Assault Brigade.
Horlivka sector. Nothing to write.
See you tomorrow for the second part!
Here: https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4987
The maps are right for Vesele, but the Russians have created a wedge about 2 kms to the north.
This week the Telegram channel of the 88th Mechanized Brigade is back active, writing that they are ready to perform combat duties in their assigned area, and claiming to have received Bradleys. I think this is the most mysterious brigade in the UAF - so many rumors about its deployment for a year now. It’s not clear where it’s being deployed, I am investigating. If I remember correctly it was formed on the basis of elements of the 80th Air Assault Brigade.
A month ago the Facebook page of the 13th Jager Brigade woke up from a months-long hibernation writing that soldiers from this brigade are covering the border with Belarus. It’s unclear why these two brigades were never deployed to the front unlike the others formed in early 2023, but at least we have confirmation that they exist, which it’s good enough.
In addition to them we have the five new mechanized brigades being created, which it seems will be in part reformed as infantry brigades due to the shortage of spare equipment, and the 5th Tank Brigade (its rifle battalion is in action in the Orikhiv sector), which is probably waiting for the delivery of the Leopard 1A5s. It was said to have received Slovenian M-55s to equip a tank battalion, but last month some of these tanks were seen in service with the 127th TDF Brigade (which might be reformed as a brigade of the Ground Forces in the future). Ukrainian sources complain that the new brigades have the men but it’s equipment that is in short supply.
The 62nd Mechanized Brigade is a very mysterious unit, apparently no longer existing for some reason. The Consolidated Rifle Brigade of the Air Force is mysterious too - in theory it’s formed and its social media are active, but I don’t think it’s deployed anywhere. I don’t know if it was a rear unit that Syrsky might take to the front.
All the other brigades have a known sector of deployment, with elements of the TDF and several protection units of the National Guard covering the state border with Belarus and Russia together with the Border Guards (well, someone has to).
The 110th Mechanized Brigade is in the strategic rear in the process of restoration, which is likely to last several more weeks at least. Official channels of the brigade stated that new equipment will be received. A group of veterans of the Avdiivka campaign last month went on vacation in the Carpathians with their families - the veterans of this brigade certainly deserve as much rest as possible after what they have been through. The 116th Mechanized Brigade, according to the infos I have gathered, was moved back in the Orikhiv sector (from Avdiivka), yet it’s not on the front line, but is digging fortifications in the rear.
But the way Ukraine usually sends reinforcements where it’s needed is by transferring brigades to the hot sectors from quieter ones. Case in point being the 68th Jager Brigade, whose sector has been (relatively) quiet for all of the last 6 months, so we are talking about non-attrited brigades with good cohesion that can easily be moved to where they are needed. Let’s note, however, the growing tendency towards fragmentation: battalions from the same brigade in different sectors + one battalion each from many brigades in the same area, which may mean that in such battalions there are too few infantrymen and therefore more battalions from different brigades are needed to have effective combat capabilities, and in the first case that battalions with full combat capabilities of a given brigade are forced to be detached and moved around to support combat actions in different sectors.
Thank you, but no, I am active only here.
And do you use ISW as a source?
I used to read it until last summer, then I stopped as I became a member of both the Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels which they use as primary sources (in first place the one of the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets), so I generally wasn’t anymore reading things I didn’t already know. Speaking of ISW as a collector of infos, I think they play this role very well and it can be among the best secondary sources for those who want to know more about the war without wanting to be on the channels on original language; although sometimes their lines may end up bordering on story-telling and narrative building, that should be avoided for such a reputable think tank.
Yup, supplies to these two villages have already been passing over the Donets-Donbas Canal for weeks, however, that makes the supply and evacuation routes more detectable by the Russians. But the biggest concern is posed by potential Russian successes south of Ivanivske. The topography helps the Ukrainians, but there is still a risk of Klishchiivka getting surrounded on three sides.