Here we are for the second part of my analysis on the tactical situation of the front line in Ukraine and on the events of the last month, after the first.

Avdiivka sector. The Russians, specifically elements of the 132nd Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps (8th CAA, Southern MD) over the past week have resumed attacks in the direction of Novokalynove, which had almost stopped during 2024. There were successes: the Russians advanced 1 km from the south, along a tree line south of the village, and more than 1 km from the east, attacking from the Ocheretyne-Horlivka railway, occupying a farm on the outskirts of Novokalynove and attempting to move up on a tree line east of the village, only to be stopped by a counterattack which saw Bradleys in action, presumably by the 47th Mechanized Brigade (let’s recall however, as I had written yesterday, that the new 88th Mech Brigade stated to have received Bradleys and is going to be deployed to a currently unknown sector). The Novokalynove area is now covered by the 115th Mech Brigade, which arrived from the Kupyansk sector, replacing the 71st Jager Brigade, moved to the southern flank of the Avdiivka sector, as we shall see. The presence of the 115th Mech Brigade in this sector had already been mentioned for about a week by the spokesman of the Group of Forces “Centre”, in the daily bulletin published by the Russian MoD. I found the Russian MoD to be quite reliable about this and they often anticipate the news of re-deployments of Ukrainian brigades before I manage to find evidence confirming that, which tells us that both sides generally know well which units they are fighting against in a given sector. The presence of the 115th Mech Brigade in Novokalinove was later mentioned by DeepState, which wrote that there were issues with this unit in the village.

It’s not hard to imagine why the Russians have resumed attacks in this area: Ocheretyne, their real target, is a very important junction for the entire northern flank of the sector, as well as creating the conditions for a future offensive operation against Toretsk.

In Berdychi, the Russians in recent days have occupied the entire area of the village east of the Durna River and are currently moving northwards, arriving, the day before yesterday, in the area of the spring of the Durna, probably aiming to advance in the direction of Novobakhmutivka.

In Berdychi the 2nd CAA of the Central MD is active again, after the actions in the second half of March had been mainly the work of the 74th and 137th Motorized Brigades of the 41st CAA (CMD). Mashovets wrote yesterday that the “new” 433rd Motorized Regiment of the new 27th Motorized Division (2nd CAA) was brought into action in Berdychi. This is confirmed by the fact that since the last days of March on VK I have found a growing series of MIA notices of servicemen of this regiment. Which in fact it’s a rebranding of the 21st Motorized Brigade of the 2nd CAA, which has had a handful of weeks of rest and a quick refitting, getting new recruits and equipment. The division’s other two motorized regiments (506th and 589th) are in training stage in Orenburg Oblast in Russia and should be ready by June 1.

For Mashovets, the fact that this regiment has already been brought into action means that the situation regarding the Russians' reserves in the sector is beginning to be poor, but at the same time it also means that the Russians assess the Ukrainian situation as critical and that it therefore makes sense to attack and try to advance as much as possible with what they have.

The 15th Motorized Brigade (2nd CAA) is also active in Berdychi, along with subunits of the 90th Tank Division of the Central MD. Elements of the 30th Motorized Brigade of the same army are active in Semenivka, along with the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps. For Mashovets the bulk of the 41st CAA has been brought to the rear for R&R and will be used as a second echelon, presumably in case of advances to the west of the Durna.

The area around Berdychi is being defended by the 47th Mech Brigade, supported by the 127th Battalion of the 112th TDF Brigade, the 171st Battalion of the 120th TDF Brigade, the 407th Battalion of the 143rd Infantry Brigade, and the 409th Battalion of the 144th Infantry Brigade (another battalion from each of these two brigades should be active in the southern flank of Avdiivka), and the Ocheretyne area by elements of the 23rd and 31st Mech Brigades.

In Semenivka (which let’s recall, is in the western bank of the Durna) the Russians continue to advance northwards, albeit slowly, into the built-up area of the settlement, attacking from Orlivka. Per Russian sources there are just a few Ukrainians in the village, which is low in elevation, and the Ukrainian defensive priority is the trenches to the west of the village and the other strong points along the forest belts in the heights between Semenivka and Novoselivka Persha.

From what I have found this area is defended by the 68th Jager Brigade, the bulk of which arrived in the Avdiivka sector in late March from the Svatove sector, replacing most of the 3rd Assault Brigade, which was likely brought to the rear, most likely to be preserved in case of future problems, e.g. a Russian “breakthrough” or Ukrainian units at risk of encirclement. At the moment smaller units of the 3rd Assault Brigade are in action, as well as the brigade’s artillery group and UAV units, both of which are very active and don’t seem to spare DPICMs against Russian infantry.

Let’s recall that the Russians are supported by countless regiments of the 1st Corps and of the Territorial Forces, both in combat actions and to make up for losses in “regular” units. Every week I find evidence of the presence of additional such regiments in Avdiivka. From Russian social networks I found out that the 1441st Regiment of the Territorial Forces (mobilized men from Altai Krai) has been in the sector for a few weeks now, which some will remember as back in August it was attached to the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and fought heavily in Robotyne. After that it was withdrawn to the rear and according to what the Ukrainian observer Kovalenko wrote a few months ago, it was attached to the 90th Tank Division, which means it followed the division to Avdiivka.

In recent months, the 1452nd Regiment of the Territorial Forces (mobilized men from Novosibirsk Oblast), attached to the 35th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA, was also involved in the actions. Among many others I had also read about the 1231st Regiment of the Territorial Forces (mobilized men from Tatarstan) being disbanded and its servicemen scattered among the other units deployed around Avdiivka.

The brigades of the 1st Corps are also being replenished by the regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Corps: it appears that the 109th Rifle Regiment is attached to the 132nd Motorized Brigade; the 88th, 96th and 98th Rifle Regiments to the 114th Motorized Brigade; the 87th and 117th Rifle Regiments to the 1st Motorized Brigade; the 111th Rifle Regiment to the 9th Motorized Brigade.

Yesterday yet another episode in the series of complaints concerning Russian soldiers being forcibly sent to the 114th Brigade came out, on the “Poisk in UA” Telegram channel. In this case by relatives of mobilized men belonging to the 1454th Regiment of the Territorial Forces (from the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug), attached to the 1st Corps. On April 5, 100 men from this regiment were transferred to the 114th Brigade and sent on assault with only a few magazines, without proper combat kits nor artillery support, and with blocking detachments behind them, to prevent the men from retreating or stopping to rescue the wounded. After just a few days, more than half of the initial 100 men were dead or missing. On April 10, the 114th Brigade requested an additional “batch” of 100 men from the 1454th Regiment, which resulted in an outcry from their relatives, who accuse the 114th Brigade of destroying the regiment. It’s said that the 114th Brigade is known as “the meat brigade” and that its officers are cynical and rude. Second part below.

As high as their casualties are, the Russians are not the only ones suffering losses, and defense comes at a cost to the Ukrainians as well. On Ukrainian social networks there are protests from the relatives of soldiers of the 99th, 100th and 101st Mech Battalions of the 61st Mech Brigade, who allegedly had a lot of MIAs - particularly during the last days of February, at the time of the retreat from Lastochkyne to Orlivka. The command is accused of throwing the soldiers into the fray and ignoring the requests of the relatives; the brigade doesn’t seem to recognize that it’s in action. This is true - while most of the Ukrainian brigades make known the sector in which they are fighting, publish videos etc, by the 61st Mech Brigade there is absolute silence about the fact that they are fighting: their FB page posts anniversaries or shares posts from the General Staff, with relatives in the comments criticizing the brigade’s attitude. As far as I have read, at the moment the battalions of the 61st Mech Brigade have been attached to their neighboring units, particularly to the 53rd Mech Brigade. The Russian MoD had been mentioning the presence of this brigade since late February and I found confirmation of this with the first MIA notices of servicemen from this unit (it arrived in mid-February from Chernihiv Oblast, where it was covering the border, to stem the Russian advance after the fall of Avdiivka), but from official Ukrainian sources there was never any acknowledgment that this brigade is fighting in Avdiivka.

From Tonenke the Russian offensive continued in the direction of Umanske and Yasnobrodivka, which is the work of the 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, recently reinforced by the 428th Regiment of the Territorial Forces (mobilized men from Bashkortostan, attached to this division), together with the 1st Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps. The Russians managed to occupy positions along the fifth “longitudinal” forest belt west of Tonenke, getting less than 1 km from the first houses of Umanske (those in the part of the settlement located south of Durna). In this area the Russians are carrying out continuous armored/mechanized attacks, aiming to advance into the open fields between the tree lines and approach the two villages mentioned above. They have had successes, although at great cost in terms of men and gear; moreover, rumors that they have entered Umanske are categorically false as of today and also denied by Russian channels with contacts with their soldiers in the field. The area north of Pervomaiske is a large gray area according to both sides; as of last week there was still Ukrainian presence in the area but it’s likely that the Ukrainians have withdrawn, while the Russians still need to consolidate gains there.

A grouping of the Air Assault Forces is working to halt the Russians in this area: the 25th Airborne Brigade, the 71st Jager Brigade (arrived over the recent days from the northern flank of Avdiivka) and the 78th Air Assault Regiment (transferred in recent weeks from the Orikhiv sector), along with the 53rd Mech Brigade.

During 2024, the 9th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps (the “Somalia” Assault Battalion of the 1st Corps became a battalion of this brigade, which is also supported by the “Sparta” Recon Battalion of the 1st Corps) managed to take over the entire village of Pervomaiske, advancing 6 kms along the village since December 2023, when they were still only a few hundred meters away from the famous “Republica Mist” checkpoint established in the ATO/JFO times.

In the last week the Russians have managed to take all the houses both north of Staroavdeevskiy Stavok (i.e. the territory of the hamlet of Vodiane) and south (i.e. the houses along Pershotravneva Street), after very hard house-to-house battles against the 1st Rifle Battalion of the Ukrainian 59th Motorized Brigade. Now the Russians are moving in the direction of Netailove, which defense is beginning. Earlier this week they managed to advance a few hundred meters into the marshy area between Pervomaiske and Netailove. Elements of the 109th TDF Brigade arrived in the area recently.

The rapid advances in Pervomaiske were also aided by the fact that the bulk of the 59th Motorized Brigade is now concentrated in Nevelske, a little to the south. The latter village is being attacked by the 110th Motorized Brigade of 1st Corps, which had managed to enter the village, after approaching it from the east and south. Last week a counterattack by the 59th Motorized Brigade drove the Russians out of the village, which is situated in the heights and which control is important. The 59th Brigade is supported by the 198th Battalion of the 111th TDF Brigade.

Marinka sector. Over the past week, attacks have resumed against Krasnohorivka, an important Ukrainian stronghold in the area, defended by elements of the 80th Air Assault Brigade and of the 109th TDF Brigade. As early as late February the Russians tried to attack the town, initially with limited success and then being driven out by elements of the 3rd Assault Brigade quickly rushed there. A relative of a missing soldier of the 5th Motorized Brigade (1st Corps) had named Krasnohorivka the “Bermuda Triangle” because of the large number of MIAs the unit had there.

This week the 5th Motorized Brigade attacked from the south (Marinka) and elements of the 110th Motorized Brigade from the east (Staromykhailivka) - this is the assault in which the famous “turtle tank” took part. The Russian assault groups succeeded in capturing several houses both south of the Donetsk-Kurachove railway and north of it, after managing to occupy several Ukrainian trenches to the east of the town, as well as taking the town’s cemetery and some industrial buildings in the south-eastern part of the town (along Vatunina Street), with the aim of reaching the large brick factory.

The 46th Airmobile Brigade has succeeded, in the last weeks, in halting Russian attacks against Heorhiivka by the 103rd Motorized Regiment and elements of the 68th and of the 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Division (8th CAA, SMD), which have been attacking from both the sides of the lake formed by the Osikova River, despite some Russian rumors that they had entered the center of the village.

Further south, after several counterattacks, the 33rd Mech Brigade and elements of the 23rd Mech Brigade (to which the 425th Separate Assault Battalion “Skala” was attached) managed to stabilize the lines around Pobjeda (which is in Russian hands), preventing further advance by the 20th Motorized Division (8th CAA).

There are Russian successes in Novomykhailivka, however. To the north of the village, in late March the 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Motorized Division (transferred here from Avdiivka several weeks ago) captured the industrial area north of the village and several tree lines further north.

In the center of the village, the progress of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, supported by the 430th Regiment of the Territorial Forces, goes on: over 1 km during the recent weeks along Centralna Street, as well as having captured a part of the dachas area located north of the Novomikhailovsky Stavok. According to Ukrainian statements, the Ukrainians currently control about a quarter of the village.

South-west of Novomykhailivka, last week the 39th Motorized Brigade of the 68th Corps of the Eastern MD (supported by the 1472nd Regiment of the Territorial Forces) captured an Ukrainian trench system, complicating things for the Ukrainians in the Novomykhailivka, the area of which is defended by the 79th Air Assault Brigade with support by elements of the TDF (particularly the 116th TDF Brigade). The 79th Brigade has been doing a tremendous work for months and months and destroying a lot of Russian armored vehicles, despite the difficulties.

South of Novomykhailivka, elements of the 57th Motorized Brigade of the 5th CAA (EMD) have recently entered the field. However, the Russians have been weakened in this area, with the 39th Brigade concentrated near Novomykhailivka, and have no longer been able to advance in the direction of the Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar Road and Vodiane, thanks to the work of elements of the 72nd and of the 31st Mech Brigades. Last part below.

Vuhledar sector. The 95th Rifle Regiment of the 1st Corps is deployed in the Shevchenko/Pavlivka/Mykilske area, and for the observer Mashovets some assault groups of the 5th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps have recently arrived to join it. The area is also home to the 36th Motorized Brigade of the 29th CAA (EMD) as well as the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet. The Russians are reportedly reinforcing the grouping under Vuhledar and could undertake offensive action against it if they have successes east of the town.

Velyka Novosilka sector. The Russians have recently attempted several offensive actions on both the banks of the Mokri Yaly. The 37th Motorized Brigade of the 36th CAA (EMD), supported by elements of the 5th Tank Brigade of the same army, attempted to advance towards Urozhaine in recent days, but to no avail: the few gains were lost thanks to a counterattack of the 58th Motorized Brigade, supported by the 3rd Mech Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade.

On the western bank, the 60th Motorized Brigade (5th CAA) is trying to advance towards Staromaiorske from the south, supported by elements of the 5th Tank Brigade, but without success, thanks to the work of the 21st Brigade of the National Guard. The 394th Motorized Regiment of the 127th Motorized Division (5th CAA) in early April had advanced about 1 km along a tree line west of Staromaiorske, but already the day after the gain was completely nullified thanks to a counterattack of the 128th TDF Brigade, which was reinforced by elements of the 129th TDF Brigade that arrived from Avdiivka (other battalions of this brigade went instead to cover the state border with Russia), and it’s supported by elements of the 1st Tank Brigade.

Let’s take this opportunity to mention an incident that occurred recently and was reported by “Poisk in UA”: 92 mobilized servicemen of the 60th Motorized Brigade, currently in the rear, were reportedly ordered to go to the front lines. But most of these men are in need of medical care and cannot be deployed in combat. After the command’s insistence there was some sort of mutiny, with numerous refusals, and these men were locked in their barracks for a day. However, they managed to contact their family members, who protested and mounted a media case which, for once, seems to have worked: the FSB and military prosecutors reached the military unit, and the order to go to the front was cancelled, at least at the moment. Also in the 60th Motorized Brigade, evidence recently came out about the existence of blocking detachments.

Polohy sector. Nothing to write.

Orikhiv sector. The Russians continue to attack Ukrainian positions, with the aim of recovering the Ukrainian gains during the summer counteroffensive. It’s not easy to have a constantly updated understading of the lines in this sector due to a certain lack of geolocations, but as I understand it, at some point after mid-March the 71st Motorized Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Division (58th CAA, SMD) managed to occupy the very large trenches system south of Robotyne, built by the Russians and occupied by the Ukrainians in September 2023. Together with the rest of the 42nd Motorized Division (which is supported by several regiments of the Territorial Forces, primarily the 1152nd) and elements of the 76th VDV Division, they managed to enter Robotyne, occupying positions in what remains of the south-western part of the village. There is heavy fighting in the area of the secondary school, in the south of the settlement. Russian assault groups often try to advance northwards through the ruins of the village, but are generally repulsed by the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian brigades defending this area are the 65th Mech Brigade, the “Spartan” Brigade of the National Guard and the 118th Mech Brigade; since late February, the 141st Infantry Brigade has also arrived in Robotyne, which has allowed improved rotation opportunities for the units deployed here since the summer. Unlike the other infantry brigades (which are scattered in various sectors and attached to other brigades), the 141st Brigade should be deployed here almost entirely, posting videos etc, a sign of internal cohesion and the presence of a decent-sized HQ staff. The 1st Rifle Battalion of the new 5th Tank Brigade also arrived last month. The 116th Mech Brigade, which returned here a month and a half ago from Avdiivka, as far as I know is digging fortifications in the rear, in the area near Mala Tokmachka, in case the Russians are successful in liquidating the Robotyne salient.

The Russian 136th Motorized Brigade (58th CAA) is active in the north-west flank of Robotyne. North-west of Verbove, the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th VDV Division has managed to advance about 1,5 km westwards over the past month (in the area just above Hill 140), occupying some heights (so to speak) in that section of the front line, in the defense area, I believe, of the “Kara-Dag” Brigade of the National Guard. In general, the situation in the Robotyne salient is not easy and things are not improving.

Kamianske sector. Nothing to write.

Kherson sector / Dnipro River. Actually nothing to add to what I had written last month. The situation in Krynky remains the same as it was a month ago, as do the units involved. What is certain is that after 6 months since the operations began, part of the village remains in Ukrainian hands.

That’s all!

Honestly don’t know where he’s getting this information from. No Ukrainian or Russian Telegram channel is talking about it, and searching for “Kozachi Laheri” on Twitter, even transliterated in its Ukrainian name, he’s the only one talking about it. No Ukrainian website has published anything about it in the latest hours either.

Thank you and yes, I had mentioned that during the update of the last month. I didn’t do it today because it seems that the attacks there have lost intensity and the situation has calmed down at the moment. Very likely probing attacks.