It’s basically the merger of Groups of Forces “Bryansk”, “Kursk” and “Belgorod” (where the 18th Motorized Division of the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet has been recently deployed) together with the 6th CAA of the Leningrad Military District, previously under the Group of Forces “West”.

When the Western Military District was divided between Moscow MD and Leningrad MD, I wondered if this meant the creation of a new GoF, and we seem to have at the answer. It’s no coincidence that Lapin, the commander of the GoF “North” , is also the commander of the Leningrad Military District.

According to Ukrainian observer Mashovets, the 25th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA should also become part of the GoF “North”, which means that the entire 6th CAA should be subject to this GoF, whose jurisdiction should reach as far as Synkivka (although yesterday, per the daily bulletin of the Russian MoD, Synkivka was still reported as being under the jurisdiction of the GoF “West”).

The GoF “North” will likely be joined by the new 44th Corps of the Leningrad MD which is being formed. In addition, Russia plans to form a new CAA from the 14th Corps of the Arctic Fleet, with the reform of its 200th and 80th Motorized Brigades into divisions (they are now fighting in Bakhmut and Kherson, respectively). Once this project is completed (we are months and months away from this), it’s possible that the new CAA will join the GoF “North” - especially if Russia plans offensive operations in the Kupyansk sector or in Kharkiv Oblast in general.

It’s also reported that numerous conscripts are being sent to the formations of the Leningrad MD and these will be a very important part of the personnel of this GoF: the majority of which, after all, is deployed within Russia’s legitimate borders.

In contrast, the GoF “West” will consist of the 1st GTA (Moscow MD), 20th CAA (Moscow MD) and 25th CAA (Central MD), as well as the 7th Separate Motorized Regiment of the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet. Very interestingly, Mashovets reports that the new commander of the Moscow Military District will be Kuzovlev, currently in command of the Southern MD. Although there is still no confirmation from the Russian side as far as I know.

New units are being formed but that’s not a new unit - at the moment being it’s a merger of existing Group of Forces under a single one. It’s a reshuffle of command within existing forces.

The most recent update we got on overall numbers came from NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Christopher Cavoli.

Note that this is actually the estimate by the Ukrainian military intelligence, usually released either by observers such as Mashovets or by interviews with Budanov or with bigwigs of the UAF. Which is then cited by Western generals, observers or think tanks and in turn, for some reason, the press makes it look like a Western/NATO estimate.

I was going to write about this tomorrow and I’ve been gathering some information on this in the recent days so I’ll take the opportunity to summarize all here.

The Right Sector (Pravy Sektor) has always been a very hot potato to deal with politically and institutionally. They are really far-right and Ukrainian ultra-nationalists as well as followers of Bandera’s thought. That is the difference with the Azov galaxy, which while having a far-right base has a very high Russian-speaking presence: Kharkiv and Dnipro are very important cities for the history of Azov, not by chance. While the voting basin for PS and the recruiting one for the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps (DUK) is, for the very vast majority, Western Ukraine.

The very creation of the 67th Mechanized Brigade was a kind of implicit “pact” between Zelensky, Zaluzhny and Stempitsky (the commander of the DUK back then). A regular and institutionalized unit and under the command of the Ground Forces where they would incorporate all the units of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps, i.e. the military branch of Right Sector, as long as they maintained a certain autonomy and identity compared to the other brigades. Whereas the Azov units weren’t confined in a single unit, have thrived and expanded.

They have generally shown themselves to be a capable unit in their combat history: primarily it’s to their sacrifice that Ukraine owes the defense of the northern flank of the salient of Bakhmut (the area north-west of Khromove) in March/April 2023 - where Dmytro Kotsiubailo, known as “Da Vinci” (a battalion commander), fell in action. And besides, they were always sent to catch fire in the hottest sectors of the front, both because of the great courage and determination of their soldiers and because of the inconvenience the existence of their unit brings.

The biggest problem is that the reverse side of the coin is that they are really hot-heads and it has always been difficult for them to be under the jurisdiction of the UAF. In the past there have been several coordination issues with both the command and the neighboring units because of the habit by the command and the servicemen of the 67th Brigade of doing as they please. And political disagreements, especially against Zelensky, have never been hidden.

In January two companies (“Honor” and “Ulf”) had left the 1st Assault Battalion “Da Vinci” of the brigade and recreated their unit in the 59th Motorized Brigade as the 108th Mechanized Battalion. This plan was led by Alina Mykhailova (the fiancée of the fallen Kotsiubailo) and other key figures of the unit close to Kotsiubailo and had already created tensions within the DUK. There were internal political disagreements within the 67th Brigade, also related to the proximity of the outcasts to the mayor of Lviv and the management of both the legacy and the inheritance of Kotsiubailo.

With Zaluzhny (coincidentally, from Western Ukraine), a personal friend of Stempitsky, a harmony had ensued in which the 67th Brigade retained a particular decision-making autonomy. But Syrsky (a Russian speaker, incidentally - like Zelensky, for that matter), has no patience or tolerance for the demands for autonomy by his subordinates: for better or worse, that’s his personality.

In Ukrainian socials there is a very, very heated debate on this issue. DUK and PS have wide support in part of the population, particularly in Western Ukraine, and these people espouse the conspiracy theory that this is part of a Zelensky’s plot against the Ukrainian military (which is something that runs deep in the Ukrainian debate, think of the Wagnergate case and the others, about which much could be written - and it got worse when Zaluzhny was fired). Other parts of the population, on the other hand, have never had much sympathy for PS in first place and for their overly extremist instances.

What would have happened is that the 67th Brigade arrived in the second half of March in the Bakhmut sector following a rotation (I will write more about on the details at the tactical level another time) and was expected to defend several key positions without many issues, and therefore preventing the Russians from approaching Chasiv Yar, but that did not happen. There were serious problems with the brigade’s battalion commanders that allowed the Russians to record tactical successes, with the loss of some key fortifications east of Chasiv Yar.

According to several sources, including yours, the mobilized servicemen who are part of this brigade are viewed with some disdain by those from PS/DUK (who are all volunteers), and used for expendable purposes, like there were two different units in the same unit. This has severely exacerbated the problems and has been among the main causes for the loss of the positions, despite the fact that this brigade had been amply supplied in the past months with mobilized personnel and equipment.

The brigade is being heavily scrutinized by inspectors from the MoD and it now appears that the 67th Brigade will be entirely cleansed of any person with ties to PS/DUK (both the commanders and the soldiers). Syrsky took the opportunity to put the nail in the coffin on the issue. They have already made a new FB page removing references to the two latter organizations and will probably change their logo in the future. So it will become a “normal” brigade like the others. While those with links to PS/DUK will be scattered into the other brigades. In fact, as those in the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps itself have denounced, it’s a total and forced dismantling of their organization. Let’s note that there are Ukrainians very much in favor of this, who instead say that not enough people have been removed from the brigade! Proof of the mixed feelings the DUK generates.