The 152 Mechanized Brigade is also expected to be converted into an infantry brigade.

It’s possible that the 152nd Mechanized Brigade will remain such; on its Facebook page it has posted photos and videos showing that its troops are training with Polish BMP-1s (BWP-1), of which it has clearly received a batch. I don’t know if these vehicles were part of a new shipment received lately by Ukraine or they were already in the Ukrainian “strategic reserve” of armored vehicles.

In Ukrainian jargon there is no distinction between mechanized and motorized (the four motorized brigades are mechanized for all intents and purposes); many Ukrainian mechanized brigades have M113s or MRAPs, which are also used for assaults. An infantry brigade (like a TDF brigade), has pretty much no armored vehicles, except at best a few mechanized platoons with vehicles such as BMP-1s, BTR-60/70s or IMVs. They also have no tanks and generally rely on civilian vehicles. Not sure they have their own artillery group with howitzers either (so far I have seen that shelling activities regarding infantry brigades are carried out in cooperation with an artillery brigade); although they definitely field mortars.

The biggest problem is named 115th Mechanized Brigade. There’s not a single good thing I read about it from Ukrainian sources: incompetent command, poorly trained soldiers with high average age (it was referred to as the “grandparents' brigade” by an Ukrainian), in addition to the fact that in general the shortage of shells is still felt (while somewhat improving lately), and for brigades that don’t have 155mm howitzers things are even worse. Let’s also remember that the 115th Mechanized Brigade is the only mech brigade that doesn’t have tanks - as now the 110th Mechanized Brigade (which is getting reconstituted in the rear, so far it had no tanks) has received a batch of T-64BVs - which makes things worse in case of need of counterattacks.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade also had huge responsibilities in May 2022 during the battle of Serevedonetsk. At that time it was a newly created brigade staffed by volunteers. Nevertheless, its servicemen did not fortify their area of responsibility (the forest near the Hotel Mir) and didn’t dig in despite having had two weeks to do so, abandoning their positions when the fighting came to them. With the result that the Russians took the hotel, the city was surrounded on three sides and the neighboring units found themselves quite fucked. Criminal cases for desertion were initiated against dozens of its servicemen.

KABs also played an important role, however. On April 18 alone, according to the observer Kovalenko, 44 of them fell on Ocheretyne! This greatly complicated the situation, and the Russians took advantage of this by converging numerous forces on a village that’s very tactically important. And the situation may get worse in the coming days. Ruslan Mykula earlier reported that the Russians would already be in the northern part of Ocheretyne, and the situation is also deteriorating in Novobakhmutivka.

After the Russians realized that they were having great difficulty advancing in a sustained manner while crossing the Durna (in Berdychi, Semenivka and Umanske), they have been concentrating on the ends of the sector, namely the Ocheretyne/Novokalynove area in the north and the Netailove area in the south, for the past two weeks.

The Russian unit that’s advancing northwards inside Ocheretyne is the 433rd Motorized Regiment of the 27th Motorized Division of the 2nd CAA (i.e. the former 21st Motorized Brigade); the 30th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd CAA is fighting to its right, in the area of Hill 240. In recent days the 41st CAA has also been brought back into battle after a brief refitting. Its 35th Motorized Brigade has been committed between Ocheretyne and Novobakhmutivka, and its 74th Motorized Brigade is active in the direction of Novobakhmutivka from Berdychi. This suggests that at the moment this direction has become Russia’s priority in the Avdiivka sector and they are concentrating numerous forces for this objective. On the Ukrainian side, in addition to the 115th Mechanized Brigade, there is the 47th Mechanized Brigade which is really doing everything it can from Ocheretyne to Berdychi, along with the smaller units attached to it. Elements of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade are in Novokalynove, where they are halting the advance inside the village by the 132nd Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps. In general, the situation in the northern flank of the sector is critical and there still aren’t signs of stabilization yet.

Definitely true. Although it must be said that elements of the 100th Mechanized Brigade (the former 100th TDF Brigade) should have been moved over the past week to the northern flank of the Avdiivka sector, from the Serebrianka Forest, to try to stabilize the situation. This brigade has been appearing for a few days already in the daily bulletin of the Russian MoD, mentioned by the spokesman of the Group of Forces “Centre”, and I found, from an Ukrainian crowdfunding activity for this brigade, a mention that it’s fighting in the Avdiivka sector.

There were few fortifications. Although not unlike other places where fighting is going on now, for that matter. The existing fortifications were not of high quality either. One is the long trench that runs parallel to the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway from the junction of the latter with the Ocheretyne-Horlivka railway to the electrical substation of Ocheretyne, and is being used by the Russians to bring troops from the railway junction to the private sector of the village. The railway junction area and Hill 240 were under direct threat as early as November 2023.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade arrived in early April to replace the 71st Jager Brigade between Ocheretyne and Novokalynove, which was moved to the southern flank of Avdiivka, and join the elements of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade deployed in the area. I heard complaints from soldiers of the 115th Brigade about the lack of fortifications and that they had to dig them, but that’s it. These are the same positions that others before them held. We certainly cannot demonize all its soldiers, let that be clear - I am sure most did their duty, after all, there are not a few MIA notices of soldiers from this brigade coming out in the recent days. But that doesn’t diminish the internal problems in the 115th Brigade. I also forgot when in October 2022 their negligence resulted in the loss of Vodyane and Opytne in the southern flank of Avdiivka, a negative development that had to be stabilized by the 36th Marine Brigade (which is the reason why Kriegsforscher has a grudge against them, probably).

I honestly did not have any information about the withdrawal of the 47th Mechanized Brigade into the strategic reserve. Rather, I think it was a battalion that was supposed to go into rotation that was brought back into battle. The area covered by the 47th Brigade, along with the smaller units attached to it (separate rifle and TDF battalions, possibly elements of the 31st Mech Brigade), is wide: from the southern part of Ocheretyne down to the beginning of Semenivka, where the responsibility of the 68th Jager Brigade begins. If it were withdrawn in its entirety it would take a fresh, large, capable, and well-equipped brigade to replace it. Which is, well, not something you find around the corner. As I wrote above, elements of the 100th Mechanized Brigade seem to be coming in to reinforce the positions of the 115th Brigade.

I am not sure whether the built-up area of the village is salvageable at this point. A pair of kms to the north-west of Ocheretyne there is Hill 245 (I highlighted it here), which is the highest point of all the heights around and to the west of Ocheretyne, over which the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway passes and which act as a watershed between the valleys to the north and south. I already wrote about this a few days ago, let’s sum up: the control of those heights is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for other advances in the direction of Pokrovsk. Russian control of Ocheretyne and those heights is a very negative development for the area between the Vovcha and the Durna. Moreover, if the Russians continue to advance along those heights they could come dangerously close to Highway T0504 (the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut road), which is a very important logistical artery for the Ukrainians. This will not be easy at all, because about 3 kms west of Ocheretyne (south of Novooleksandrivka) the Russians will find important Ukrainian fortifications. Last, they could advance northeastwards along the valley of the Kalynivka River in the general direction of Toretsk, which is another point often raised by Ukrainian observers, who fear future offensive operations against the latter city, especially if in the future the Russians are successful in forcing the Donets-Donbas Canal in the southern flank of Bakhmut (again, not an easy thing - far from it).