I am on vacation this week - I am following the situation normally, but I don’t have time for detailed write-ups. That’s what I can say: it’s likely that the brigade involved in Ukraine’s offensive operations in Kursk Oblast is in fact the 22nd Mechanized Brigade. During June they were likely withdrawn from Klishchiivka (the last time they were mentioned by the spokesman of the GoF “South”, in the daily bulletin of the Russian MoD, was in mid-June) and transferred to Sumy Oblast (probably also for restoration of combat capabilities). Since yesterday morning the Russian MoD has identified the 22nd Mech Brigade as the responsible of these attacks - most of the time, it’s reliable.

However, the 22nd Mech Brigade had never been seen with Strykers. It’s possible that in the last two months they have been assigned to it; after all, the UAF had quite a few Strykers in storage that were transferred last year. But it could also be possible that there is participation by elements of the 80th and/or 82nd Air Assault Brigades. Support units of these two brigades, as far as I have found and put in the image above, were recently reported to have been deployed in Sumy Oblast; maneuver units may have been deployed there too, although it’s not certain at all. Besides, it’s also too early for the first MIA notices to appear.

In Sumy Oblastm in addition to the 35th Regiment of the National Guard (which is covering the border in the Velyka Pysarivka area), there should also be battalions of the 103rd, 117th, 119th and 127th TDF Brigades, but these are probably covering the border (Sumy Oblast is pretty large) and haven’t been committed in the attacks in my opinion.

Reinforcements are also on the way in critical sectors, by the way. In the Pokrovsk sector, (at least) elements of the 117th Mech Brigade are arriving from the Orikhiv sector according to the informations I have gathered, in addition to the 88th Mech Brigade (which would thus finally see its “baptism of fire”, after a year and a half since its creation - this is the most “mysterious” brigade in the UAF). In the Toretsk sector, the 53rd Mech Brigade was transferred about a month ago from Sumy Oblast, where it had been regaining combat capability over the recent months. It likely relieved the most battered subunits of the 41st Mech Brigade and its “endowments” (primarily battalions of the 241st TDF Brigade) around Niu-York. Also from Sumy Oblast, where they were covering the border, elements of the new 150th Mech Brigade are arriving in the Toretsk sector.

Returning to Kursk, on the Russian side in that area there were conscripts from regular units (a Russian regiment/brigade generally has a battalion of conscripts, which may be deployed to cover the state border with Ukraine, regardless of where the rest of the brigade is deployed in the “SMO” area); as well as detachments of the Border Service, along with smaller FSB quick reaction units. Reinforcements are probably now arriving, in terms of regular reserves of the GoF “North” (which are, however, concentrated in Belgorod Oblast: there are about 10k Russian servicemen in Kursk Oblast according to Ukrainian reports - roughly the same number as 6 months ago - compared to over 50k in Belgorod) and/or operational units of the Rosgvardia. Some Russian channels have been accusing for months, and even more since yesterday, the Kadyrovites (detachments of which cover the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts) of avoiding active fighting and hiding behind conscripts, who are generally unprepared to deal with such situations. In addition, the GoF “North”, which has jurisdiction over the affected area, has… several issues in terms of command and control compared to other GoFs. Moreover, at the end of July, a Russian Telegram channel mentioned the arrival of elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Kursk Oblast (e.g. its air assault battalion), to be deployed either near Sudzha (but at this point I don’t know if this was actually the case), or to strengthen the operational reserve of the GoF “North”.

I personally don’t believe in theories regarding the exchange of territories, negotiations, nuclear power plants, etc. In any case, I will write about this in more detail the next week, when there will be more news for sure. What’s certain is that the Russians have been caught by surprise and will have to transfer reserves there (when a Russian channel, in late July, wrote about future plans to transfer several battalions of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade from the Kharkiv sector to the Pokrovsk sector); moreover, the topography of the place affected by the Ukrainian offensive operations is, well, very interesting… at least if compared to the dullness of Southern Ukraine but also of much of Donbas.