Mandatory update on the matter of one-time payments upon signing contracts in Russia. Last time (two days ago) we had seen that the record one-time bonus was 2,245 million Rubles. Today Putin approved the doubling of the amount offered as a one-time bonus by the MoD - from 195 to 400 thousand Rubles, calling on all federal subjects to give at least as much with their own funds (the poorest regions are indeed still under that figure). This “advice” isn’t needed for the richest federal subjects: city of Moscow, Moscow Oblast, city of Saint Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast are all at ≥ 2 million Rubles.

Scrolling VK for a while today, at first I found a 2,3 million bonus in a contract offer. Then 2,4 million. Finally 2,495,000 - a new record high! Details here. That’s an offer from the city of Moscow, the one that provides the best deals in the whole country (let’s recall again, such contracts are signable by every Russian citizen, with reimbursement of transportation costs incurred in order to travel to the city where the contract must be signed). This offer is open to men aged 18 to 60 and is also signable by women (up to 45 years old) with medical qualifications, for service in medical battalions/companies of the military units.

The basic salary is 210 thousand Rubles (there is also a bonus of 8 thousand Rubles for each day of combat operations and one of 50 thousand Rubles for each kilometer of advance as part of an assault detachment); the city of Moscow will provide additional 50 thousand Rubles per month. Then there are the other privileges which I mentioned the other times, and recently new ones have been added. For example, for each child the volunteer has, he has a right to additional 18,7 thousand Rubles per month.

Now, a quick update regarding the mobilization in Ukraine. The news about the decidedly accelerated pace of mobilization has reached the Western press - the NYT writes of “up to 30,000” mobilized men per month since May, according to three military experts. If you’ll allow me a little self-gratification, this was in fact the number I had estimated back in June. Moreover, according to Ukrainians sources, the pace is not only 2/3 times higher than the winter period (as stated in the NYT article), but up to 6 times.

We don’t know whether the very strong increase in bonuses in Russia is providing a boost to its amount of volunteers, but if, as also claimed by Kofman, during 2024 Russia has been recruiting less than 30,000 men per month, it’s definitely possible that since May Ukraine has been recruiting at least as many men as Russia. Hopefully this good pace, which the Ukrainian authorities confirm they are very pleased about, will be maintained in the coming months.

As of July 16 (the deadline for that), 4,69 million Ukrainian citizens subject to military service have updated their personal data (most of them in the “Reserv+” app). This figure includes 65,000 who did so from abroad, a few hundred thousand women (those with medical/nursing degrees) and also men exempt from service under current rules. Using as a proxy the figures released in the update of the end of June, around 48% of those who have uploaded data are mobilizable under the current rules - a very high number in absolute terms. At the moment Ukrainian authorities have stated that there is no need nor legal grounds to introduce electronic summons via the “Reserv+” app.

Zelensky complained about the fact that there aren’t enough training centers to train the high number of recruits. In the NYT article the issues in training are, rightly, emphasized. The training centers are trying to hire as many specialists and (veteran) trainers as possible, for which there is a very high demand. The average age of the mobilized remains 40, which should keep the current average age of the servicemen stable, accordingly.

I think that actually the figure of 30,000 men per month concerns the number of new recruits in general: Ukrainian sources had stated that about 1/4 of the new recruits are volunteers. This should be confirmed by new statements, which report that the number of Ukrainians who are seeking to join the UAF by signing a contract has increased by “3,5 times” compared to the average of the period between late 2022 and spring 2024. There have been some new developments - for instance, under-25s can now sign a 1-year contract with discharge at the end of the term (assuming the mobilization age is not lowered by the next year, though). The success of the new Recruitment Centers (as well as platforms such as Lobby X) is also highlighted - these are being opened in Ukrainian cities, where the citizen interested in joining can choose role and brigade.

This process has been improved and made more efficient. A citizen interested in joining a brigade which is on the list of those that have the priority (i.e. the most renowned ones and those most in urgent need of replenishments) will conduct an interview with the representative of that brigade and receive (in case of admission) a letter of recommendation, after which he will go to the TRC in order to be formally enlisted, pass the medical examination and receive basic training in a Training Center. After that, he will go to his chosen brigade (where, considering that generally the best brigades are the ones chosen by those who volunteer, he will receive an additional training period). For those who want to join a brigade that is not on the priority list, there are some extra steps. Such brigade has to communicate which roles it needs to hire and why to the military management body, which will send the request to the General Staff. If the request is approved, the letter of recommendation can be delivered and then the volunteer can shows up to the TRC.

However, the situation is very complicated with regards to labor shortages, particularly in Western Ukraine where, as we had seen the last time, there has been a large growth in vacancies compared to the pre-war month, because of companies relocating there from the East and the South. The law about the reform of the “reservation” system (for which an enterprise can make all or a part of its workers exempt from mobilization) is still under discussion. Defense and energy companies will be able to “book” 100% of their employees; other critical enterprises (trucking, agriculture, etc - so far more than 700 companies were identified) will be able to reserve up to 50%. In total, 1,2 million workers can be “booked” under the current regulations. Many companies are trying to increase the involvement of women in the labor market (including for roles such as bus driver, or even in quarries), hiring more under-25s, and luring retirees.

One of the proposals is the introduction of the “economic reservation", whereby an enterprise can make a worker exempt by paying to the state 20 thousand Hryvnias per month (as much as an average gross salary). Considering that only a portion of enterprises can afford to pay such amounts of money, there are talks about a new proposal, whereby businesses could offer labor, goods or services for free to the UAF for the value they would have to pay to the state in exchange for the reservation of their workers. At the moment, these proposals are still in the discussion stage and the debate is pretty heated.