It seems that during the night the Ukrainians entirely left the last two strongholds of Avdiivka - the Coke Plant and the 9th District.

In the last few hours, the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps hoisted the Russian flag in the eastern part of the Coke Plant. https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4443

The Russian flag was also hoisted on the city council’s building, in the eastern part of the 9th District, by the assault detachment of the 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, supported by elements of the 24th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade of the Central Military District. https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4441

And later in the southern end of the 9th District, in the building of the cultural center. https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4447

The 74th Motorized Brigade of the 41st Army reached and cleared the area between the Avdiivka’s beach (the western shore of the Sand Quarry) and the city’s main cemetery. https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4445

While the assault detachment of the 35th Motorized Brigade of the 41st Army managed to conquer the Avdiivka railway station, which area was the scene of very bloody clashes over the last days, together with the 74th Motorized Brigade, against the 3rd Assault Brigade. https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4439

This comes after yesterday the 55th Mountain Brigade of the 41st Army managed to take the station’s hospital and the city park, both of them located to the east of the railway.

In the urban phase of the clashes from the north-eastern attack axis, in addition to the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps and the 30th and 21st Motorized Brigades of the 2nd Army, the brigades of the 41st Army (35th, 55th, 74th) were also heavily involved, elements of which (mostly their Storm battalions) had been relocated from Avdiivka’s southern flank. The presence of subunits of the 90th Tank Division in the city is further confirmed. The Russians are currently clearing the private sector of Avdiivka. It cannot be ruled out that small groups of Ukrainians remained inside the city, acting as a rear guard. We shall see if the Ukrainians will now fall back on the Stepove-Lastochkyne-Sjeverne axis, or whether they will retreat to the Berdychi-Orlivka-Tonenke line.

According to official reports from the OSG “Tavria”, the Russians around Avdiivka have around 50 thousand men, which seems to me perfectly realistic and a multiple of what the Ukrainians may have.

The (relatively) large number of square kilometers captured by the Russians between yesterday and today is simply due to the fact that they have occupied the entire urban area of Avdiivka. This doesn’t tell us much about future scenarios. At Popasna the Russians, once they managed to seize the town, had a legit breakthrough; mainly in the north-western direction, greatly complicating the logistics of the Lysychansk area, approaching the Bakhmut-Lysychansk road. To the north and the north-east of Popasna, in the Zolote area, things also became very complicated for the Ukrainians. This is not comparable to Avdiivka, as there is absolutely not the operational space created at that time after the fall of Popasna, especially since Avdiivka was already in a salient.

I expected it to last way longer too. Evidently the Ukrainian reports from yesterday about a deteriorating situation in the area of the Coke Plant were correct. The problem is that the Russians are not only advancing towards the Fire and Rescue unit No. 13 but also towards Lastochkyne. If DeepState’s updates perfectly match the reality, the Russians are 1,5 km from the dirt road leading to the Coke Plant from Orlivka. The other dirt road to the north could no longer be used for a while already, as it’s about just 1 km from the Russian positions south-east of Stepove. If the Russians had advanced further in the direction of Lastochkyne there was a risk they would enjoy full direct fire control over the exits of the Coke Plant. Rightly so, the Ukrainians preferred to abandon this fortress, which has always prove to be directly impregnable over the recent months.

Very fresh update from the Ukrainian observer Kovalenko on the matter.

https://t.me/zloyodessit/21063

KABs…

Over the past 24 hours, from February 16 to 17, the tactical aviation of the Russian Armed Forces used a record 151 KABs. More than 90 KABs were used on Avdiivka.

Today, two Su-34s and one Su-35S were shot down near Avdiivka. This is a rare case when even Russian sites had to confirm the losses of aviation, even though they manipulated the data. And it seems to be motivating news, but… not quite.

Let me remind you that on February 8, a Ka-52 attack helicopter was shot down near Avdeevka, and it was a fluke. These helicopters did not fly closer to the LBS than 5 kilometers, and at such distances we had nothing to shoot them down with. It was a rare case when we managed to shoot down one dreaming dragonfly.

Similarly with tactical aviation. They were bombing Avdiivka with KABs non-stop 24/7, avoiding risk zones and strictly keeping their distance. What happened today? Did they fly too close on a frenzy, or did they bring something under Avdiivka that even in a safe zone can snap “Sushek”? I don’t know. But even if it’s the latter, isn’t it too late? And late and… again, not really.

There can’t be any complaints. We are sorely lacking in medium to long-range air defense and it’s being trumpeted from every buzzer. Having the three ingredients of the ideal recipe for fighting enemy aircraft, namely: air defense, man-portable air defense systems, and F-16 aircrafts, there would be no total domination of the VKS RF in the Avdiivka area. As it is, we are forced to distribute effective means of air defense between the acutely needed areas, in conditions of not just acute - critical shortage.

Thanks to a sense of complete impunity, the KABs have not stopped leveling Avdiivka for an hour, setting new records.

Air defense, man-portable air defense systems and F-16s… The countdown to the third year of a full-scale war is just around the corner.

The area that elements of the 42nd Motorized Division have been attacking today is very important for the hold of the south-western part of the salient. It’s the Russian system of fortifications and trenches for the defense of Novoprokopivka that was captured by the Ukrainians in September and later restored for defensive purposes. https://t.me/voenacher/60910

Seems like the Russians succeeded in occupying a trench in the southern end of the fortification system (that of the “Vienna” stronghold, east of the T0408 Road). https://t.me/motopatriot/19595

While Ukrainian sources in recent days had reported that the Russians had managed to occupy the last forest belt before the T0408 Road, to the west of the southern part of Robotyne.

At the same time it should be mentioned that Ukrainian observer Mashovets reported that the command of the Russian Armed Forces recently disbanded the “Zaporizhzhia” Group of Forces, which had responsibility for the Kamyanske / Orikhiv / Polohy sectors. The 58th Army of the SMD, the 76th and 7th VDV Divisions and smaller units were assigned to the “Dnepr” Group of Forces, while the 35th Army of the EMD joined their Far Eastern fellows in the “Vostok” Group of Forces. In theory, this should mean that the area formerly covered by “Zaporizhzhia” Group of Forces could see a lower priority and fewer resources assigned to it (as opposed to the summer period, when it had the highest priority), which makes me bearish about the chances of a large scale offensive in that area. Anyway, the Russians have been on the attack since late November in the Orikhiv sector.

Allow me to make a clarification. In the Soviet/Russian jargon “irretrievable” losses include, in addition to the KIAs and the MIAs, the wounded who have permanently lost combat capability (while the lighter wounded are classified as “sanitary” losses) and the POWs. In itself this doesn’t even look that high; it’s possible the actual number is higher, and for that matter the reported armored vehicles loss number is well underestimated. We don’t have any data for the statement about Ukrainian losses, but the number he estimated might be realistic.

For those who have Telegram, I recommend reading the comments under the posts on this channel. https://t.me/poisk12128i90600

These are the MIAs reported by the relatives of soldiers from just two brigades, the 15th and 21st MRBs of the 2nd CAA of the Central MD, which Putin even forgot to mention in yesterday’s speech. It gives some idea of the losses.