Great news - Ukraine is going to need new 155mm howitzers over the current and above all the next year. And after all Nexter Systems is by far on the podium of the ranking of Western/NATO companies being able to churn out howitzers at this pace.

It just mirrors the disengagement of European countries in terms of mobilization capabilities after the end of the conscription in most countries, and as a consequence, the shrinking in training capacity and in the number of trainers. The Italian Army for example has gone from 10 recruit training centers (for basic training, before being assigned to a certain military branch) during the late Cold War to 3, today.

They are active, including in the hardest sectors such as around Avdiivka. A 2S3 Akatsiya appeared in the photos of the training of the newly raised 151st Mechanized Brigade, also. The issue is that the situation for 152mm shells is way worse compared to 122mm shells.

Who do you see up there and what systems do you realistically see ending up in Ukraine vs what you recon the optimum gear?

In terms of artillery? Concerning 122mm and 152mm howitzers, the main restraint is posed by the number of shells, and not by the number of the guns, afaik. Same goes for 105mm guns. This actually applies to 155mm howitzers as well at the moment, but this could change in the future, considering the potential large increase in Western production of 155mm shells from 2025 too. Attrition is significant, mainly because of the Lancets, and the rates of fire in the summer have caused wear in the barrels of a certain portion of the guns. There was an interview in which artillerymen from the 47th Mechanized Brigade complained that the accuracy of their M109A6 had decreased significantly. So new barrels are definitely needed.

In the future, European countries will be able to send newly produced howitzers, but almost all of those in stock have already been delivered. For example, my country, Italy, gave Ukraine 140+ 155mm howitzers (largely M109L), but today we can no longer give anything without taking guns away from the operational artillery units of our brigades and we don’t produce new howitzers. France and Germany, on the other hand, can help: production volumes of CAESARs have been multiplied and are going to be very relevant for Ukraine. Germany will deliver new RCH 155s and also has active PzH-2000 production line. Poland with the Krabs and Slovakia with the Zuzanas will also be able to help. The West’s largest friendly producer in this field is South Korea, but they don’t send directly guns to Ukraine. Although they have helped anyway: the delivery of the K9 Thunders to Estonia allowed all Estonian FH-70s to be sent to Ukraine. It would also be great to resume M777s production as some rumors say: the Ukrainians need both self-propelled howitzers to shoot and then run away, but also towed howitzers that can be very well hidden in forest belts and remain in a fixed position. This is due to the fact that Russian counterbattery is in fact Lancets, rather than artillery fire. Finally, Ukrainians stated they’ve started producing 6 2S22 Bohdanas per month and are also going to start producing the towed version with the same barrel. That would be very good news!

I would like to use this opportunity to thank you for your insightful and detailed comments on this sub, portraying the situation at the front.

My pleasure, thank you!

Also barrels of course! I forgot to write that the US has quite a few howitzers in stock, but whether they will be sent to Ukraine or not will depend on their intentions.