Update from the front, after four weeks since I wrote the last one. My main source are the Ukrainian military observators Mashovets and Kovalenko, several Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels (e.g. WarArchive for geolocations) and of course DeepState. I suggest having a map under eye while reading, for instance DeepState or Andrew Perpetua’s.

During the Christmas period (between Catholic and Orthodox Christmas) there was a slowdown in hostilities. In the last week the intensity of fighting has increased again, thanks to the buildup of resources by the Russians over the recent weeks. The latters hold the initiative in all areas - Syrskyi stated that the UAF has switched to “active defense” along the frontline. This has been true for almost two months.

Kupyansk sector. The 6th Army of the Western Military District, with the support of several regiments of the Territorial Forces (such as the 350th), continued to attack towards Synkivka and in the forest below Lyman Pershyi, without success. After several medium-scale mechanized attacks repelled during December, the Ukrainians have fully recovered the houses at the beginning of the settlement, thus confirming that there is no Russian presence inside the village. The Ukrainians are helped by the fact that they hold several strong points in the forest west of the village. In recent weeks there have been reconnaissances in force by Russian infantrymen towards Synkivka, all of which ended with imaginable results, thanks to the action in particular of the 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the 30th Mech Brigade, which is the unit inside Synkivka, supported by the other units I had mentioned last time.

Let’s recall that some pro-Russian sources wrote of Ukrainian withdrawal from Synkivka and Russian occupation of the village in June (!) and August of the last year. Ukraine had to deploy significant reinforcements to the area, but the absence of serious Russian advances is quite telling.

Mashovets reported that at the beginning of the month, the 25th Motorized Brigade of the 6th Army and units of the 2nd Motorized Division of the 1st Tank Army (WMD), which is active further east (between Vilshana and Pershotravneve) received 1000/1200 men to replenish losses. At the base of the 2nd Motorized Division in the rear, up to 5000 men would be being integrated into the ranks of the formation, primarily coming from the 346th Regiment of the Mobilization Reserve and trained in the Kursk Oblast.

In the direction of Pershotravneve, the Ukrainians recovered several hundred meters, driving the Russians away from the important Hill 195. A Russian mechanized attack in this area over the recent days was repulsed.

Between Orlianka and Yahidne, a Ukrainian counterattack (I believe by the 43rd Mech Brigade) managed to advance by almost 500 meters along a forest belt, in a section nearly 1 km wide. It appears that the Russians, specifically the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division (1st Tank Army) are preparing for new actions towards Ivanivka from Yahidne, while elements of the 4th Tank Division (1st Tank Army) would aim towards Kyslivka. In the past two weeks Russian engineers have been carrying out demining of Ukrainian minefields to prepare the land for their mechanized units.

DeepState yesterday was talking about the loss, most likely by the 103rd TDF Brigade, of some positions in the direction of Tabaivka, a little to the south. We still don’t have details of their advance but it may be possible that the Russians overran the Svatove-Kupyansk railway in some points. Elements of the 1st Tank Army and the 7th Motorized Regiment of the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet are active here.

Overall, the situation here is largely under control at the moment. Russian gains are very limited, especially in relation to the size of the forces deployed here (primarily the 1st Tank Army, one of the largest Russian formations), although the Ukrainians have had to deploy numerous reinforcements.

There has been no update about the rumors of a potential Russian effort to force the Oskil near Topoli. Some battalions of the regiments of the 18th Motorized Division and one of the 7th Separate Regiment of the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet were reportedly withdrawn from the Kupyansk sector and deployed along the state border in the Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. A hodgepodge of different units are deployed along the border: a few regular units, regiments of the Territorial Forces (mainly those of the 3**th series), conscripts (not to be confused with the mobilized), the Border Service, units of the Rosgvardia, volunteer battalions formed by the oblasts located on the border. On the Ukrainian side there are units of the Ground Forces mostly in R&R mode (I believe the 61st Mech Brigade is in Chernihiv Oblast, by the way), and territorial defense units, such as the 101st, 117th and 120th TDF Brigades, as well as the Border Guards. On the border with Belarus there would be, in addition to the Border Guards, Ukrainian conscripts (those from military service, not the mobilized), who, as I understand it, are framed in units of the National Guard deputed to service in the rear, guarding military infrastructure, etc., and are not sent to the front, although understandably there is some invitation/pressure to sign contracts. There are also some elements of the TDF but it seems that over the recent months most of these have been sent to the Eastern front. The border with Belarus is safe (unlike the one with Russia), usually soldiers at the border spend their time insulting Belarusian guards and the other way around - although there are instances of respect, such as when an outpost of the Belarusian Border Service lowered its flag during the Ukrainian commemoration day for those killed in action. In recent times all border areas have been seeing the construction of new fortification systems. There had been rumors of a potential future Russian offensive towards Kharkiv but at the moment it’s clear that they lack the troops and the equipment for this.

Svatove sector. The 27th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Tank Army has reportedly received the 1431st Regiment of the Territorial Forces as a reinforcement and is taking steps to bypass Stelmakhivka from the north. Otherwise the situation is fairly quiet. In the Andriivka area the Ukrainian 44th Mech Brigade has been deployed. The Russian summer offensive towards Borova was stopped in September and there has been no follow-up since.

Kreminna sector. Here things are more complicated. The 20th Army of the Western MD has clearly received orders to drive the Ukrainians out of the eastern bank of the Zherebets. In recent days the 752nd Motorized Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Division has advanced as far as 1,5 km south of Makiivka, with the capture of several forest belts. The Ukrainian 66th Mech Brigade with the support of TDF elements is active in this area, and the 49th Assault Battalion has recently arrived as a reinforcement.

Further south, in the direction of Terny, the offensive of the 144th Motorized Division continues, in recent days pushed by its 283rd Motorized Regiment with the capture of three Ukrainian platoon-strongholds. The breakthrough in this area in December was significant: 3,5 kms. I did some digging and got some details. A soldier from the 21st Mech Brigade, deployed in this area, accused the 97th Mechanized Battalion of the 60th Mech Brigade of abandoning quite a lot of positions without them being authorized to do so, which greatly complicated the situation for the 21st Brigade (which received the 38th Rifle Battalion under its command) and ruined several counterattack attempts, with the loss of four Leopard 2A5/6s (it’s possible that the 21st Brigade received a handful of Leopard 2A6s to expand their tank company) and a CV90. On the other hand, a soldier from the 97th Battalion blamed the 21st Brigade of lack of support and that the positions had been under heavy fire from Russian mortars for days. The Russians took several POWs from the 97th Battalion. They state they were unaware that positions next to theirs had been lost and found themselves flanked, and communications were not active. One of these soldiers claimed to be a convict from Kryvyj Rih. The 97th Battalion had been reconstituted this fall, after the losses at Bakhmut this spring, on the basis of the Azov-Kharkiv unit of the Kraken Special Detachment. I highly doubt it received personnel from the Kraken though, and we cannot be sure whether the presence of convicts in the ranks, for instance in the unit’s assault detachment, is true or not. Other parts are below. [1/4]

Now paratroopers from the 3rd Battalion of the 25th Airborne Brigade have arrived near Terny, from Svatove. The 25th Brigade, like the 95th Air Assault Brigade, act as “firefighters”, particularly between Kupyansk and Kreminna but not only. They operate mainly in detached battalions and are sent where there are Russian breakouts or delicate situations. Elements of the 63rd Mech Brigade would have arrived as reinforcements from Torske (a few kilometers further south) and elements of the 18th “Sloviansk” Brigade of the National Guard, recently reformed to a brigade (it was the 15th Regiment), would also be in the area. The Ukrainian reinforcements have helped to stabilize the situation, at the moment. It remains, however, that the Russians have the altitude advantage in the area (it’s the ridge of the valley descending to the Zherebets) and they would be at the beginning of the large forest belt leading up to the settlement of Terny. We will see how the situation evolves. In any case, losing the positions east of the Zherebets would not be a disaster (the Russians report that the Ukrainians are developing strong points along the river), but for the Russian side it would still be a success, as part of the first phase of their plan pointing towards Lyman and the entire eastern bank of the Oskil. The 164th Motorized Brigade of the 25th Army is active towards Yampolivka, but in this case they only succeeded in capturing a single Ukrainian platoon-stronghold.

The 169th Motorized Brigade is active towards Torske, but without success. This is a new formation mentioned by Mashovets for the first time. There had been an homonymous brigade in the Russian order of battle in the 1990s in Irkutsk Oblast, thus it was probably formed within the Central Military District.

In the Serebrianka Forest, the 228th Motorized Regiment of the 90th Tank Division (41st Army, CMD) is continuing to attack, using armored vehicles too. But, again, without any success, except for some really minor movements. The objective here is to capture the eastern part of the forest, which will serve to reduce Ukrainian support in the Siversk area, as we will see in a while. Russian efforts are being repelled by the “Azov” Brigade of the Offensive Guard, the 67th Mech Brigade, the 100th TDF Brigade - elements of the “Bureviy” and “Khartiia” Brigades of the Offensive Guard have recently arrived in the forest. This would be the first deployment for the last one. In the Kreminna sector there would also be elements of the 144th Infantry Brigade, as far as I have seen from analyzing MIA notices. From a soldier of the 67th Mech Brigade I read that the “5 shells per day per mortar” thing is, unfortunately, widespread. This is a serious problem that needs to be addressed with allies, and FPV drones are far from being a full substitute for artillery/mortars.

Siversk salient. For the first time in months, thsomething to be written about it’s happening here. The Russians are reportedly developing offensive actions in this area, from three directions. Their goal is to dislodge the Ukrainians from Siversk, which is an important Ukrainian outpost that allows the Ukrainians to threaten Soledar and Lysychansk. The 127th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps is attacking Bilohorivka from the north-east. In the last few days they captured the forest belt before the beginning of the settlement. From here the Russians have an elevation advantage over the village. The 6th Motorized Regiment of the 2nd Corps is providing support from the south-east, near the area of the chalk processing plant, which is in Russian hands. Bilohorivka is being defended by the 81st Airmobile Brigade and lately the 167th Battalion of the 119th TDF Brigade has arrived as far as I know (this should be the first deployment for this brigade which has been in R&R for quite a lot, after losses near Soledar a year ago). From the area of the Lysychansk oil refinery the Russians are reportedly attacking in the heights towards Verkhnokamyanske, which are well covered by Ukrainian trenches, and further south elements of the 88th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps are active in the direction of Spirne. The Russians are at the gates of this village but no progress is being made - this area is defended by the “Rubizh” Brigade of the Offensive Guard and the 118th TDF Brigade.

The most notable Russian successes are in the southern part of the salient: after advancing during December and early January along the Siversk-Nyrkove railway (which is located in higher terrain compared to Vesele), the Russians managed to flank the latter village. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade in the last days had to abandon the village, which was occupied by the 51st Air Assault Regiment of the 106th VDV Division, which in the actions in this area is supported by elements of the 119th Air Assault Regiment of the same division (arrived from the southern flank of Bakhmut) and by the 123rd Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps. In general, the overwhelming majority of the 106th VDV Division is in the area north of Soledar. Fortunately, north of Vesele there are heights that may allow the Ukrainians to prevent the Russians from continuing up that side of the salient. DeepState this afternoon devoted a post to Vesele, writing that there were serious problems on the Ukrainian side and losses were significant. In the area around Vasiukivka the Russian efforts are blocked by four battalions of the 30th and 54th Mech Brigades. Between Siversk and Bakhmut there are also elements of the 142nd Infantry Brigade. The Russians report that the Ukrainians are building fortifications between Mykolaivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka (a dozen of kms east of Sloviansk) in case they lose the salient in the future.

There is, fortunately, fairly good news from the Bakhmut sector, or at least they are better than December. The Ukrainians have succeeded in blocking Russian advances that had been very important during the last month. Elements of the 24th Mech Brigade have arrived in Bohdanivka from Horlivka (confirmed in recent days by brigade’s official sources - I had seen a couple of MIAs from the 24th Brigade in Bohdanivka for a few weeks already). The 107th TDF Brigade is also in the village too. The efforts of the 200th Motorized Brigade of the 14th Corps of the Arctic Fleet both in the village and on the north-west flank have been blocked. In the village, the Russians control the houses up to the road to Hryhorivka. The offensive of the 98th VDV Division in the south-east flank and southwards from the Road O0506 has also been mostly blocked for now, mainly by the 42nd Mech Brigade and a couple of battalions of the Separate Presidential Brigade. The only progress in recent weeks has been the capture of the cemetery of Khromove, while the 11th VDV Brigade advanced a couple of hundred meters south of the motocross tracks and half a kilometer south of Khromove, along the reservoir. At the end of December the Russians finished capturing the dachas area between Bakhmut and Ivanivske, but no further advances were reported at the moment, although they have nevertheless got closer to the last village.

On the southern flank, there have been no Russian successes in recent weeks. There is heavy fighting around the area of Hill 215 north-west of Klishchiivka and the trench system in the area is partly in Russian hands, partly in Ukrainian hands. Losses, just like in the northern flank, are heavy for both sides. The units attacking in the area are the 4th, the 85th and (elements of) the 88th Motorized Brigades of the 2nd Corps, “Akhmat” detachments, the 72nd Motorized Brigade of the 3rd Corps, the 105th Motorized Regiment of the 1st Corps and elements of the 83rd VDV Brigade. The heights north-west of Klishchiivka are defended by the 5th Assault Brigade and the 22nd and 93rd Mech Brigades; in the village there are elements of the 80th Air Assault Brigade and the 141st Battalion of the 115th TDF Brigade. According to Russian sources, the latters are reportedly trying to flank Ukrainian positions, advancing along a forest belt located about 1,5 km north of Hill 215, but DeepState still reports nothing and there are no geolocations to confirm this. For the area further south, there are no updates - the Russians cannot get past the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway. Mashovets reported that elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment of the Caspian Fleet were spotted in Kurdyumivka, arriving from Kherson, probably to replace the 57th Motorized Brigade of the 5th Army (EMD).

Horlivka sector. Nothing to write.

Avdiivka sector. There are some news. In general, after 3+ months since the beginning of the offensive, Russian progress was limited, however in the last day something has happened, as we will see.

The brigades of the 2nd Army of the Central MD and of the 1st Corps continued to attack in the direction of Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Stepove, the Coke Plant and the Sand Quarry. The 109th Motorized Regiment of the 1st Corps has also been committed in the north-east flank this month. Towards the first village, no progress is reported. In the second direction, the Russians approached Hill 240, at the intersection of the two railway lines, which should remain in Ukrainian hands, however. It appears that the bulk of the Ukrainian 23rd Mech Brigade, including its tank battalion, has arrived in this area from the Orikhiv sector. [2/4]

The Russians undertook efforts to flank Stepove from the north: between late December and early January they advanced about 500 meters in the direction of Berdychi, reaching two forest belts - but no new advances have been recorded since then. Stepove is currently, overwhelmingly, a gray area. Ukrainians hold positions just in houses at the western and southern ends of the village. The village should be garrisoned by the 104th Battalion of the 109th TDF Brigade, which arrived from the Niu-York area. The Ukrainians are bringing in new reinforcements around Stepove, mainly to replace the 116th TDF Brigade, which has been moved to the Marinka sector (as far as I know, at least four of its battalions have been moved), as we shall see. There are several battalions of the 109th and 129th TDF Brigades in the area. An additional battalion from the Separate Presidential Brigade has arrived. The 25th Assault Battalion of the 47th Mech Brigade was deployed around Stepove, confirming that the whole brigade is here. The 26th Rifle Battalion, in the area for months, was reportedly put under the command of the 47th Mech Brigade, after previously being under the 68th Jager Brigade. WarArchive also reports the 52nd Rifle Battalion (which is in Novokalynove) as being under the command of the 68th Brigade, which, however, is in Svatove: it is likely that it has been transferred to the command of another brigade or is operating separately. In Stepove I have infos about a MIA from the 407th Rifle Battalion, made up of residents of the Poltava Oblast and part of the 143rd Infantry Brigade, as well as one from the 101st Brigade for the Protection of the General Staff, which I had lost track of for almost 1 year - perhaps it was around Horlivka in recent months. I also had confirmation that part of the 67th Mech Brigade had arrived in the area during late November to support the 47th Mech Brigade. The latter two brigades are the ones that drove the Russians out of the forest belt south of Stepove (where they had executed the POWs of the 45th Separate Rifle Battalion), securing that flank. The soldiers of the 67th Mech Brigade during the attack rode in the Bradleys of the 47th Brigade, which, as we know, it’s short of stormtroopers. It has been confirmed that the 71st Jager Brigade, or at least elements of it, has been moved to Avdiivka’s north-east flank too, from the Orikhiv sector, confirming some Russian rumors from last month. This brigade had a at least a month and a half of rest, after suffering major losses in the counteroffensive. I heard that elements of the 4th Tank Brigade are also around Avdiivka but they could also be non-maneuver units, for example the artillery group.

The Russians control the eastern end of Stepove - as I wrote, much of the village is gray area. Russian assault groups have moved closer towards the center of the village, but writing about control is overstating it. What happens is that they find shelter in the basements of houses and remain there for days. In recent weeks the 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army, which had been in reserve in the rear since early November, is beginning to be committed. The T-90M hit by the Bradleys inside Stepove belonged to this regiment, which is the only active unit in Avdiivka that is equipped with the T-90Ms after all. Lately a T-90A had been damaged and abandoned by the Russians near Krasnohorivka, in this case belonging to the 21st Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army. Human losses are also very heavy. The brigades of the 2nd Army, as far as I have seen from the obituaries, have been replenished with men of the 1308th Regiment of the Territorial Forces. A good part of these regiments act as “marching units” to resupply regular units.

The Russians attack using assault teams consisting of about 10 people. Sometimes such a team acts alone without support, other times three teams act together, supported by 1/2 tanks and 3/4 IFVs. They succeeded, earlier this month, in advancing a couple of hundred meters southwards on both sides of the Avdiivka reservoir, in the defense area of the 116th Mech Brigade. Assault groups have reportedly already tried to creep into the dachas area, fortunately without progress. Here the Russians' goal is to outflank the Coke Plant (against which every attack has failed) from the south. First by conquering the dachas, then passing the railroad and heading for “Fire and Rescue unit No. 13” and the former “Brevno” restaurant, located south of the Coke Plant. The road from Lastochkyne passes in that area, which is the main artery leading to the center of Avdiivka.

The 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps has attempted a mechanized attack from Kamianka in the last days, against that sort of Ukrainian salient between Kamianka and the Avdiivka reservoir. They were likely repulsed, by the 3rd Mech Battalion of the 110th Mech Brigade, which was aided by the fact that units of the 30th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army failed to approach the Sand Quarry. In the industrial zone, known as Promka, no progress has been reported. The Ukrainians control several strongpoints in the forested area north of Promka, which are critical to securing the Donetsk Filtration Station, and the Russians have failed to advance towards the private sector from there either.

The problem that arose between yesterday and today is that the Russians, per DeepState, managed to break through the Avdiivka-Yasynuvata railway, aided by the bad weather that hindered Ukrainian drone recon and maybe taking advantage of a rotation. Clashes are ongoing on the holiday cottages in Skotovata, south of the Promka. Most importantly, they also managed to get past the former restaurant “Tsarska Ohota”, one of the main Ukrainian strongholds in Avdiivka. This area was/is covered by the 2nd Mech Battalion of the 110th Mech Brigade, according to the information I have. Russian assault units have arrived in the private sector along Soborna Street and occupied several houses there - I cannot rule out that Tsarska Ohota fell. I have no information on what happened. The situation is unfolding in these hours, as we speak. I will try to keep you informed if there is any important news. For now we know that the attack was carried out by several Russian assault detachments, and we hope that the Ukrainian reserves will be able to repel them and retake positions in Tsarska Ohota, or at worst kick them out from the private sector. This could be a very negative development.

For the rest of the southern flank, there is no progress. Several brigades of the 1st Corps and the brigades of the 41st Army of Central MD are active in this area. There are Russian advances in Pervomaiske and Nevelske, however. From Pisky, the Russians reportedly advanced about 500 meters along Voroshylova Street in Pervomaiske and gained a handful of hundred meters east of Nevelske along a forest belt. Here the 110th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps is active, while the Ukrainian 59th Motorized Brigade is defending, supported by the 23rd Motorized Battalion of the 56th Motorized Brigade. I also believe that on the southern flank of Avdiivka there is the 13th Motorized Battalion of the 58th Motorized Brigade (Ukrainian sources mentioned the 58th Brigade as part of the Avdiivka garrison, Russian sources wrote that this battalion arrived in Avdiivka in November), to support the 53rd Mech Brigade.

Marinka sector. In recent weeks the Russians, mainly the 5th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps, have advanced more than 1 km along Ivana Franka Street, finishing the capture of the last houses in Marinka still not in their hands. The Russians have reportedly lately captured the Orthodox Church located along the border of Marinka and Heorhiivka’s municipal territory, and in fact it appears that the battle for the latter village, defended by the 46th Airmobile Brigade, is beginning. There are advances of a few hundred meters along two forest belts in the fields north of the settlement. Right there, the UAV unit of the 80th Air Assault Brigade is active, which could mean that a battalion of the brigade has been moved to the area to act as a “firefighter”. The 148th Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces was also deployed in the rear, from the Orikhiv sector. Actions by the 103rd Motorized Regiment of the 150th Motorized Division (8th Army, SMD) in order to advance south-west of Marinka were unsuccessful. [3/4]

The 33rd Motorized Regiment of the 20th Motorized Division (8th Army, SMD) is trying to attack the fortified farm “Zverinets”, north of Novomykhailivka, without success. The Russians are attempting to advance halfway up the western flank of that Ukrainian-held salient that has formed. The 255th Motorized Regiment of the 20th Motorized Division is attempting to advance between Zverinets and Novomykhailivka, with an advance of likely a few hundred meters according to geolocations (although DeepState has not confirmed yet). Should they have further success, the Ukrainians will be forced to abandon the farm. Otherwise, the resistance put up by the Ukrainians in Novomykhailivka over the past month has been very, very good. The 79th Air Assault Brigade is mostly in this area, and recently the 116th TDF Brigade also arrived to provide support. A reinforced battalion of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet was recently deployed and is attacking Novomykhailivka from the east. From the south the 39th Motorized Brigade of the 68th Corps (EMD) is attacking, along with the 139th Separate Assault Battalion of the 29th Army (EMD), and probably Storm-Z/V units of the 36th Motorized Brigade of the 29th Army. In early January there was a Ukrainian counterattack that recovered ground to the south, driving the Russians at least 1 km away from the southern flank of the village. The Russians however, during this month, are placing less pressure against Novomykhailivka and are aiming to advance westwards, from the territory in their hands in the south of the village. They advanced more than 1 km in the direction of the Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar road. Their mid-term objective is to cut it, although fortunately they are still 5/6 kms away from this road and the 72nd Mech Brigade would be establishing strong points along this road, before Vodiane.

Vuhledar sector. Mashovets reported the arrival of the 57th Motorized Brigade (5th Army, EMD) in this area and a buildup of personnel in the rear of the sector, where the 29th Army and brigades of the Pacific Fleet are deployed. In case of successes towards Vuhledar/Vodiane from the east, the Russians could increase the pressure against Vuhledar by returning to attack from the south.

Velyka Novosilka sector. Quiet situation. The TDF brigades deployed in the western bank of Mokri Yaly River succeeded in halting, with support from elements of the 1st Tank Brigade, the offensive action of the 127th Motorized Division (5th Army) towards Rivnopil and Staromaiorske, which has petered out.

Polohy sector. Nothing to say.

Orikhiv sector. Russian counterattacks continued, in order to retake the territory liberated by the Ukrainians during the counteroffensive. The Ukrainian order of battle in the salient is: elements of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade near Kopani, the 33rd and 65th Mech Brigades in Robotyne, along with the “Spartan” Brigade of the Offensive Guard (I have had no more updates about the 88th Mech Brigade being there), the 117th and 118th Mech Brigades halfway between Robotyne and Verbove, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade in Verbove together with the “Kara-Dag” Brigade of the Offensive Guard, the 78th Air Assault Regiment together with the “Chervona Kalyna” Brigade of the Offensive Guard between Verbove and Novopokrovka. In late December the Russians advanced more than 2 kms between Novoprokopivka and Verbove, driving the Ukrainians away from the dirt road between these two villages from and the famous Hill 166. These attacks are likely have been the work of the 237th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th VDV Division and the 387th Regiment of the Territorial Forces (which was trained by the VDV in Ryazan)

The 136th Motorized Brigade and elements of the 42nd Motorized Division of the 58th Army (SMD) along with the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th VDV Division continued to press from Novoprokopivka and Kopani towards Robotyne, but without success over the recent weeks. In January the 7th VDV Division managed to advance about 600 meters west of Verbove, capturing the system of trenches outside the village and Hill 140 north-west of Verbove. In this area there is the Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, which it’s doing its best to resist but we have to recall it sustained considerable losses during September and October. There have been other attacks between Verbove and Novopokrovka, repulsed by the Ukrainians. The attacks occur in the same style: BMD-2/4s drive towards the strong points, dismounting paratroopers which attack the Ukrainian positions, with the help of numerous FPV drones and artillery. The Russians have sent to the rear for recovery and as a future reserve the 100th Reconnaissance Brigade of the 58th Army, the unit that defended the settlement of Verbove between August and September. Other elements of the 42nd Motorized Division would also be in R&R mode after huge losses in the past months. Its 291st Motorized Regiment, the unit that defended Robotyne during the summer, has reportedly been withdrawn for a couple of months now, along with several battalions of the 70th and 71st Motorized Regiments.

Kamyanske sector. Nothing to say. The 141st Infantry Brigade should have been deployed here, to allow elements of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade to rotate. So we know that elements of all four of the new Ukrainian infantry brigades have been deployed. These brigades are similar to the territorial defense brigades regarding their structure. They consist of rifle battalions created on a regional basis (those of the 4**th series) and formed in early 2023, which were grouped into these brigades, probably for organizational purposes. As with the territorial defense battalions, it appears that these rifle battalions are deployed to support other brigades, primarily. They are probably, therefore, lacking in mechanization capabilities and are equipped with mortars as fire support. The Russians deployed in this area the new 49th Air Assault Brigade of the 58th Army, a new type of formation that I will write about another time (yes, so far air assault brigades always were under the command of the VDV and not of a combined arms army).

Kherson Sector/Dnipro River. In Krynky the Russians are attacking from both sides to dislodge the Ukrainians from this bridgehead. To my understanding, they captured the post office during the last few days. The length of the area under Ukrainian control has shrunk, we are talking about 1,3 km now. The number of Ukrainians in Krynky has also dropped: for the Russians there are about a hundred of them at any given time. Since mid-December there has been less involvement of marines from the Ukrainian Marine Corps and elements of the 122nd and 126th TDF Brigades were sent to Krynky. The bulk of the action against the Ukrainian positions is the work of the 104th VDV Division. In late December elements of the 345th Air Assault Regiment went into action: one captain was captured by the Ukrainians. Hence sub-units from all three regiments of this division were deployed to Krynky. The 810th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is also active along with elements of the 83rd VDV Brigade, as are the 26th Motorized Regiment and (recently) the 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Division of the 18th Army (SMD). Both human and material losses for the Russians are very, very heavy. Thanks to Ukrainian artillery, which in the area, as the Russians reported, has very fast response times, as well as thanks to FPV drones and the fact that the area around the bridgehead was heavily mined. Of course, there have been significant casualties in the Ukrainian ranks as well. It’s possible that over the next few weeks the Ukrainians may retreat to the marshy islands between the Dnipro and Konka.

The 205th Motorized Brigade of the 49th Army (SMD), which during this summer and fall had been involved in numerous clashes against Ukrainian raids, particularly near Pishchanivka and Pidstepne, has been withdrawn to Crimea to rest and recover. Although we cannot rule out seeing it appear in other sectors in the future.

That’s all! [4/4]

Thank you!

Thanks!

Thank you and to u/kdy420! I try to condense the infos as much as I can, except for a few digressions and focuses. The problem is that there are many sectors and the front is so long…