An update on the news of the past 10 days along the front line in Ukraine.
Kharkiv sector. The 92nd Assault Brigade and the grouping of units of the National Guard concentrated here (primarily the 13th “Khartiia” Brigade) continue to hold the momentum in their attacks on Hlyboke. According to my understanding, the Ukrainians have managed to consolidate control over the forest belts to the west and south of the settlement, as well as have occupied the area of the barns north of the village (and north of the Balka Hlyboka), attacking from the area of the dachas east of the Travyanske Reservoir. This has complicated the logistics for the Russians in Hlyboke, with the road from Strilecha cut off; only the road from Morokhovets remains active. The southern half of the village is contested and fighting is ongoing there.
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5998
The Russians units and formations deployed in this area are the 11th Corps (18th Motorized Division and 7th Separate Motorized Regiment), to which the 1431st Regiment of the Territorial Forces is attached (the commander of this unit was recently KIA, according to Russian sources), and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. The Russians reportedly regrouped after suffering losses over the recent weeks, sent reinforcements and started some counterattacks too, but without success.
Fierce fighting continues inside Vovchansk. The Russians (specifically, detachments of the 2nd Spetsnaz GRU Brigade) have managed to make some advances just south-east of the intersection of Soborna and Korolenka Streets (i.e. in the area of the high rises), managing to enter several buildings, such as No. 52, 54, 29, 31, and 33. The vast majority of the high rises remain in Ukrainian hands; fierce fighting is ongoing in this area. However, Ukrainians likely control building No. 68 (where PrivatBank and the sushi restaurant were) - the only building west of Soborna Street (north of the area of the High School No. 2) where Ukrainian presence has been geolocated.
There have been no known changes in the area of the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. Russian soldiers are still inside the plant, at least in its western and central part. Ukrainian stormtroopers from the “Tsunami” Assault Regiment of the “Lyut” Brigade of the National Police during the past week attacked the southern part of the plant from the riverbank of the Vovcha, with unclear results. The High School No. 2 is likely under Ukrainian control (soldiers of the 57th Motorized Brigade should be there). Pushkinska Street, which leads to the Aggregate Plant from the Russian-controlled zone, and the areas around it - such as the buildings between this street and the town’s police station (the latter is in Ukrainian hands) as well as the northern part of Horky Park should be grey area, thus we couldn’t properly speak of encirclement for the Russians in the plant, despite the fact that the situation for them is by no means easy at all. It seems that over the past week the Ukrainians have made further progress west of the high school, recapturing the Vovchansk Medical College and the houses around it, between Shevchenka and Haharina Streets.
In the north-eastern area of the town, Ukrainians continued to counterattack and reached the houses south of the intersection of Stepova and Khliboroba Streets. Per the spokesman of the OTG “Kharkiv”, additional assault groups of the 138th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA (now the 82nd Motorized Regiment of the 69th Motorized Division) were recently committed in the town. The order of battle in this area is the same as I wrote the last time. It should be mentioned that it’s confirmed, from the videos they have released, that the 17th Tank Brigade is deployed in Kharkiv Oblast. It should be in the area around Kozacha Lopan (in the defense sector of the 113th TDF Brigade), where it covers the border. The 53rd Mechanized Brigade is still covering the border near Sumy. The 61st Mech Brigade should also be along the border in Kharkiv Oblast according to my findings.
Kupyansk sector. Subunits of the 25th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA continued to press from Vilshana in the direction of Petropavlivka. On Sunday, DeepState recorded a Russian advance of 1 km in this direction, a bit further east than their advance of late June. Tonight DS recorded another Russian advance of 1 km just to the east of Synkivka; the Russians reached the course of the stream that then passes through the village. The tactical position of Synkivka has thus deteriorated considerably. Confirming what I wrote last time, the 32nd Mech Brigade has been moved elsewhere (we will see where later), and was replaced by elements of the 113th TDF Brigade and of the 143rd Infantry Brigade, according to what I found. The 14th and 116th Mech Brigades remain the main Ukrainian units in this area.
There are more Russian successes in the Pischane area, south-west of Tabaivka (where the Russians had a major advance back in January). Last weekend’s DeepState update (which comes in confirmation after some geolocations of the beginning of the last week, showing Russian presence in Pischane) marks a Russian advance of more than 4 km from Krokhmalne. The Russians (probably units of the 2nd Motorized Division of the 1st GTA) have managed to occupy more than half of the part of the village to the south of the Pischana River. This area is defended by elements of the 103rd, 110th and 241st TDF Brigades as well as of the 4th Tank Brigade. While it does not appear that the Russians had any successes in the northern bank of this waterway, this advance is definitely a negative development, as it shows that the Russians have advanced along the Pischana valley. This river then flows into the Oskil, about ten kilometers further west. The Ukrainians have control of the high ground both north and south of the Pischana, so further Russian advances westwards aren’t going to be easy, but Russian successes along this river could jeopardize the hold of the entire eastern bank of the Oskil, north of the Pischana (considering the difficulty of resupplying positions east of the Oskil, should the land bridge along this river be lost), which moreover would no longer make sense to defend after all.
In this area, the Russians are taking advantage of the relocation of several Ukrainian brigades to other areas that has taken place over the recent months. For the first time since the start of the Russian offensive in the direction of Kupyansk (in August 2023), Ukraine’s hold of this area is seriously at risk. As I said, in particular the Russian advances along the Pischana valley threaten to jeopardize the hold of the part of Kupyansk to the east of the Oskil, thus the area of its “Zaoskillya” District (the majority of the town is, however, on the western bank) and thus ruin the good work done by the Ukrainians in Synkivka over the past year. Let’s recall that the last week Sternenko, a famous Ukrainian activist, heavily attacked the new commander of the 14th Mech Brigade (deployed in this area - a good brigade), after a video in which soldiers of the brigade accused him of greatly increasing the brigade’s losses compared to the previous commander’s time, due to unsuccessful counterattacks. The Ukrainian observer Myroshnykov also attacked both the commander of the 14th Brigade and the one of the Tactical Group “Kupyansk”, who also bears serious responsibility for what’s happening.
Borova sector. I start by clarifying that last time I wrote that the Russians had consolidated control in the eastern end of Novoselivske: a typo, I meant the western end. The 423rd Motorized Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st GTA has been able to advance along a forest belt east of Stelmakhivka (defended by the 44th Mech Brigade), coming practically at the gates of the houses of the village. Russian sources report that they have taken control of the village as far as the Zherebets River - this is not confirmed. However, some Russian Telegram channels have denied their MoD’s statements about Russian control over Miasozharivka and Andriivka. The Russians are at the gates of these villages too, but they should remain in Ukrainian hands at the moment.
The offensive by the 3rd Motorized Division of the 20th CAA (with support from the 16th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade) against the positions of the 3rd Assault Brigade from Dzherelne to Makiivka continued, with no noteworthy changes; just to the south, units of the 144th Motorized Division of the 20th CAA continued to attack the area between Makiivka and Nevske (which is the responsibility of the 66th Mech Brigade), achieving successes. After advancing towards Nevske in late June, over the past week the Russians were able to reach the gates of Makiivka. With an advance of several hundred meters, the Russians were able to reach the Zherebets both just north and just south of the built-up area of Makiivka, thus jeopardizing future Ukrainian control over this village, which lies in its vast majority east of the Zherebets. Bitter clashes continue in this area. As predicted by the Ukrainian observer Mashovets, after their failures in the direction of Terny and Yampolivka, Russia’s 20th CAA is concentrating its efforts in liquidating the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Zherebets in its northern part.
Lyman sector. Nothing to write. The 67th Mech Brigade has replaced the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Terny. The 12th “Azov” Brigade of the NG continues to improve its tactical position in the Serebrianka Forest. Second part below.
Siversk sector. Attacks by the 7th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps (to which the 201st Rifle Regiment of the Mobilization Reserve of the 2nd Corps is subordinate) continued against Bilohorivka, defended by the 81st Airmobile Brigade, without any success. However, the 123rd Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps managed to occupy Spirne (defended by the 8th Mountain Assault Battalion of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade).
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5994
Ukrainian defense in the south-eastern part of the salient will now be concentrated on the Verkhnokamyanske - Ivano Darivka - Vyimka line. The 106th VDV Division, operating further west, has not yet fully consolidated in Rozdolivka, with Ukrainians continuing to be active in the northern part of the village and along the trenches to the west of the Siversk-Soledar railway.
Chasiv Yar sector. The 98th VDV Division (all three of its airborne regiments are committed here) has succeeded in occupying the entire Kanal District (the one east of the Donets-Donbas Canal), as was to be expected after the Russian successes in late June. Now the Russians are consolidating control along the canal embankment, in the forests both north and south of the Kanal District. There remains an Ukrainian presence in the western part of Kalynivka, as well as in the cattle breeding buildings north of the village. According to reports by the Ukrainian observer Myrohsnykov, Russian assault groups are already passing the canal in the area of the forest south of the Kanal District (in the direction of the Novy District), but appear unable to consolidate positions in the western bank.
Let’s recall that in the forests north and south of the Kanal District, the canal passes underground and in overground pipes. However, the Ukrainian physical defenses along the canal are strong, so I believe that the Russians will prefer to try to liquidate the Ukrainian positions around Kalynivka and Klishchiivka before aiming directly at Chasiv Yar (I would also pay attention to the direction of Stupochky). Along the canal the water reaches up to the knee, so it’s passable by infantry (not by vehicles, because of the height of the embankments). I don’t know if the Ukrainians, through pumping stations, have the ability to increase the flow of water from the Siversky Donets in case of need. Chasiv Yar is defended primarily by the 24th Mech Brigade (in addition to the other units I mentioned last time). There are no notable Russian successes in the Klishchiivka/Andriivka area, where the 54th Motorized Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps has been brought into battle. The 7th Military Base of the 49th CAA continues to be active in the area. However, according to a geolocation released yesterday, the Russians were to cross the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway and reach the eastern end of Andriivka, which likely remains largely a grey area.
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6018
Toretsk sector. As I said last time, where I described the initial Russian advances in detail, the problems began when the 24th Mech Brigade was transferred to Chasiv Yar and relieved by the 41st Mech Brigade, which had been coming from two and a half months of fighting in Chasiv Yar. The latter brigade had been transferred with the aim of restoring its combat capability, so it was not ready to engage in high-intensity fighting. Kir Sazonov, a serviceman of the 41st Brigade and military blogger, recently reported serious problems with infantry shortages in the unit. Several battalions of the 241st TDF Brigade, as well as the 41st Separate Rifle Battalion, were attached to the 41st Brigade as a result. This occurs when an Ukrainian brigade needs reinforcements and/or is short of infantry.
This is something that often gives rise to coordination and control issues, as I have written several times in the past. In some cases, attached units are used for more expendable roles, due to them not being organic soldiers of a given brigade but only temporarily assigned to it. In addition, TDF units are sometimes given tasks that are far tougher than their capabilities in terms of manpower and firepower would allow. The unit in the spotlight of controversy regarding the Russian breakthrough in Niu-York is the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion of the 241st TDF Brigade of the city of Kyiv. In a paragraph of this post, back in March, I had wrote about the 206th Battalion and its issues that had been reported by one of its company commanders (Roman Kulyk, known on Ukrainian social media). They have not been resolved since then. Units like this battalion were already coming from a very bad situation as far as manpower is concerned. The unit’s soldiers did everything they could, but more than that just could not be doable. Kulyk also said that the first days of this month were dramatic for the 206th Battalion in terms of losses. In part this is also the fault of the command of the 41st Mech Brigade, because of several orders to carry out counterattacks with no realistic chance of success, as well as due to the lack of support from the brigade in terms of fires etc, as has been reported in several articles by now, like this.
The Russian units involved in this sector are the 132nd Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps (to which the 101st and 109th Rifle Regiments of the 1st Corps as well as the 1168th and 1436th Regiments of the Territorial Forces are subordinate). Elements of the 110th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps were brought into action in the direction of Pivnichne, while elements of the 9th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps were transferred last week to the Niu-York area, where they are attacking the town. The 177th Separate Naval Infantry Regiment is active in the Ozarianivka area, where no Russian successes are recorded, however.
The Russian MoD stated that the “Veterans” Assault and Recon Brigade of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps is deployed in this sector. They would have reportedly conquered an Ukrainian stronghold by passing inside a pipe. Let’s recall that this is the unit that managed to conquer the well-known former restaurant “Tsarska Ohota” in Avdiivka thanks to that infamous pipe. I was somewhat skeptical, but today a video was released that would prove the existence of this tunnel, which would have been prepared for 4 months and would be 12 km long. Likely passing along the area where the Donets-Donbas Canal flows underground, it would have allowed the Russians to capture an unspecified stronghold in Pivnichne (perhaps the pumping station?). Ukrainian sources don’t confirm this feat, unlike when a similar stuff happened in Avdiivka, and in any case the Russians have recorded successes in other directions too inside the sector, with no pipes involved - so the issues here are more complicated than a pipe, which could have definitely helped the Russians, though.
https://t.me/OstashkoNews/143662
More Ukrainian reinforcements have arrived, following the “Safari” Assault Regiment of the “Lyut” Brigade and elements of the 28th Mech Brigade. The “Luhansk-1” Assault Regiment of the “Lyut” Brigade should also have arrived from Chasiv Yar; and as Syrsky announced last week, the 95th Air Assault Brigade has arrived in the sector (from the Lyman sector). At the moment I was able to identify its 2nd and 13th Air Assault Battalions (in addition to its tank company), which are active in the area between Druzhba and Pivnichne. The 32nd Mech Brigade arrived in Pivnichne too, from the Kupyansk sector. I knew about the transfer of this brigade to Donetsk Oblast as early as the half of the last month, but as far as I could later find, this brigade was originally supposed to be deployed in the Chasiv Yar sector, but the necessities that occurred in the meantime dictated that it had to be deployed in the Toretsk sector. The 425th “Skala” Separate Assault Battalion (equipped with Bradleys) arrived in Niu-York.
As for the Russian progress: last week the Russians managed to occupy the southern part of the small Ukrainian bridgehead on the Donets-Donbas Canal to the north of Mayorsk. In Druzhba the Russians have managed to enter the houses of the village; there are clashes along Sadova Street. South of the Kostiantynivka-Horlivka railway, the Russians recorded, during the past week, a further small advance along Kalynova Street (i.e. the T0516 Road) and along Hirnytskyy Street. Attacking from Shumy, the Russians are attempting to consolidate positions in the forest to the east of Pivnichne.
From the area of the private sector of Zalizne they conquered in late June, the Russians over the past week have managed to mark a further advance of several hundred meters northwestwards, managing to enter the municipal territory of Pivnichne (there is no solution of continuity between the built-up area of the various municipalities in this area) and arrive in the area of the high rises, around the Secondary School No. 10. At the moment this area is mostly a grey area (it’s not easy at all to tell which building belongs to whom); bitter urban fighting is going on. In any case, the Russians have thus moved considerably closer to the area of the “Severnaya” coal mine in Pivnichne. Last part below.
The Russians also managed to break through, in the first days of this month, the southern flank of Niu-York; mainly, as I wrote above, because of manpower shortages in the 206th Battalion of the 241st TDF Brigade; scoring an advance of around 4,5 km and occupying Yurivka. This caused very serious problems and is endangering the hold of the town, which is a Ukrainian stronghold that the Russians had never attempted a serious frontal attack on, in the past 2+ years. Subsequently, some Russian assault groups managed to advance further and entered the private sector of Niu-York, in the area west of the Toretsk-Yasynuvata railway. There was then a counterattack by the “Skala” Battalion, but tonight’s DS update shows that the Russians were indeed able to consolidate positions in that area - namely the “Petrovska Hora” District. Here the Russians managed to take over the area of and around the Secondary School No. 16, as well as to approach the “Novgorod” machine-building plant.
Thus, the situation in the sector is complicated and constantly evolving. However, if there are no serious further changes in the future, we could begin to talk about some sort of stabilization at least in Pivnichne and Druzhba, thanks to the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements. Much will depend on any arrival of Russian reinforcements - their forces in this area are still limited; it remains that some important Ukrainian positions have been lost and now the battle has become mostly an urban one.
The 109th TDF Brigade firmly holds its positions west of Niu-York, around Oleksandropil and the H20 Highway, and prevents subunits of Russia’s 132nd Motorized Brigade from advancing northwards, endangering the right flank of Niu-York. The Russians are attacking the area south-east of Niu-York (from Shyroka Balka), without success, though, due to the number of Ukrainian trenches there. However, the situation in that area is deteriorating, as it’s finding itself in a salient between Russian positions.
Pokrovsk sector. There have been new Russian advances, and the situation for the Ukrainians is critical: there is an urgent need for reinforcements - according to some rumors I have found, one of the 117th and 118th Mech Brigades (currently deployed in the Orikhiv sector) may be transferred to this sector, but I cannot confirm this yet.
The order of battle is the same as the last time. According to a DS update published yesterday, the Russians managed to advance 1,3 km north of Novooleksandrivka along a forest belt, and 800 meters from the small lake where the Bychok River flows, in the direction of Vozdvyzhenka (which is the last village before the T0504 Highway). The large Ukrainian trench system south of the small lake should remain in Ukrainian hands; that said, the Russians managed to advance west of Novooleksandrivka in the direction of Lozuvatske, advancing 1,3 km and reaching the gates of this settlement. The Russians were able to consolidate control over the source of the Bychok and approached that of the Kazennyi Torets (let’s remember the chart I had made the last time), basically succeeding in forcing the Vozdvyzhenka-Yevhenivka defense line, after capturing several Ukrainian strongpoints.
Over the past 10 days the Russians have advanced 3 km westwards along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway, approaching Prohres and coming very close to the source of the Vovcha. The Russians also managed to occupy almost all of Yevhenivka, as well as all of Voskhod. Attacking from the latter, they managed to advance over 2 km southwards in the direction of Novoselivka Persha. Attacking from Novopokrovske, along the Balka Ocheretyna, the Russians were also able to reach the gates of Novoselivka Persha. It’s likely that the Ukrainians (specifically, the 68th Jager Brigade) will have to withdraw from this village and in general from the eastern bank of the Vovcha during this week. Ukrainian positions there are at great risk after the Russian advances and the logistics has greatly deteriorated (due to Russian advances along the Vovcha). It also makes little sense to continue to maintain them.
The Russian MoD has declared the capture of Yasnobrodivka. Indeed, it’s likely that the Ukrainians have abandoned this village, and rightly so. Possibly in the future the Russians, who are attacking Karlivka on both the shores of the the southern arm of the Karlovsky Reservoir, will consolidate control over the area between the two arms up to the small isthmus that bisects the reservoir. After that, advancing will be more difficult and they may concentrate on trying to clear the area around Nevelske, which remains firmly in Ukrainian hands.
Kurakhove sector. Russian advances continued inside Krasnohorivka. The 5th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps managed to advance further into the single-story houses north of Kirova Street and occupy other high-rise buildings in the “Eastern” District. In recent days they also managed to take over the area of the Taras Shevchenko statue and the children’s playground “Magic town” (located just south of the former - near the “Solnechny” District). The 108th Mech Battalion “Da Vinci’s Wolves” of Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade is active in the Krasnohorivka area. This unit was formed in January 2024 after the outflow of some companies from the 67th Mech Brigade.
The 79th Air Assault Brigade continued to repel the numerous Russian attacks on Kostiantynivka (inflicting heavy losses on them). The village is attacked by units of the 20th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA; also in the area there are, according to MIA notices I found, the 57th Motorized Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps, as well as elements of the former PMC “Redut” (now part of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps). I take this opportunity to report that according to relatives of servicemen of the 1219th Regiment of the Territorial Forces (mobilized men from Bashkortostan), this unit was disbanded and the men forcibly sent in first line as stormtroopers, with heavy losses. More details in this post - from MIA notices, this regiment should have been attached to the 20th Motorized Division.
https://t.me/poisk_in_ua/62567
Vuhledar sector. The 57th Motorized Brigade of the 5th CAA managed to make a further advance of almost 2 km, attacking north of the area between Mykilske and Volodymyrivka - despite numerous losses of armored vehicles, thanks to the work of the 72nd Mech Brigade. The Russians are currently just over 3 km from the Kostiantynivka-Vuhledar Road. These are tactical gains, but the situation on the left flank of Vuhledar (left from the Ukrainian view) continues to deteriorate.
Velyka Novosilka sector. The 37th Motorized Brigade and the 5th Tank Brigade of the 36th CAA continued to attack Urozhaine, along with the 1461st Regiment of the Territorial Forces (mobilized men from Buryatia, attached to the 36th CAA) and a battalion of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade. The Ukrainian units defending in this area are the same ones I mentioned last time. According to reports by “Officer Alex”, Urozhaine is only 50% Ukrainian-controlled, which may suggest further unrecorded Russian advances in the private sector.
https://t.me/officer_alex33/3187
In the western bank of the Mokri Yaly, units of the 127th Motorized Division of the 5th CAA, after consolidating control over the northern part of Staromaiorske, attacked in the direction of Makarivka, succeeding in occupying part of the trench along the forest belt between the two settlements.
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5961
The 104th TDF Brigade replaced the 127th TDF Brigade in the area between Novodarivka and Rivnopil, with the latter returning to its “home” - Kharkiv Oblast. Somewhere in Zaporizhzhia Oblast the 1st “Da Vinci” Separate Assault Battalion is deployed, which became a stand-alone unit after its removal from subordination to the 67th Mech Brigade following the April events in Chasiv Yar.
Huliaipole sector. Nothing to write.
Orikhiv Sector. The 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th VDV Division was able to advance northwards for 1,3 km along a forest belt in the direction of an important Ukrainian trench system located along the T0815 Highway, south-west of Novopokrovka, defended by the 15th “Kara-Dag” Brigade of the NG. No Russian advances were reported around Robotyne.
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6011
Kamyanske sector. Nothing to write.
Kherson sector. Last week a video came out (this hadn’t happened since April!) showing Russian attacks on a house in Ukrainian hands in Krynky, in the area to the west of the museum of Ostap Vyshnia (where the remaining Ukrainian positions in the village should indeed be concentrated).
https://t.me/EjShahidenko/3005
We don’t know the exact date of the video, but it’s potentially further evidence in favor of the theory that there are still Ukrainian positions in Krynky, as claimed by several Russian channels. Battles continue in the marshy islands between the Dnipro and the Konka. An assault group of the 127th Recon Brigade of the 22nd Corps of the 18th CAA attempted to take positions on Kruhlyk Island (in front of the city of Kherson), but was defeated.
Thanks a lot!