Pretty dangerous situation, but too early to make conclusions.

The best assessment at the moment. That should be, from what us ordinary observers can see, the area with the least density of Ukrainian forces from Kupyansk to Kreminna (before the ongoing deployment of reserves at least). The Russians in that area are said to have spent the winter and part of the spring refitting in Belarus and received Storm Z units for recon in force.

Russian efforts in that area began in the second half of June, and since then the rate of fire has been reported as insane. Let’s keep in mind that the area has been under the 66th Brigade’s responsibility since October, and one hypothesis might be that the Russian tactical successes of the last week could also be the fault of a rotation problem exacerbated by the little talked about but constant fighting of the last month which may have created organic coherence issues. They are also trying to advance a few km further north (from Raihorodka/Dzherelne, if you have a map under eye) but no successes are reported there. It must be said that unlike the Oskil, the Zherebets River is practically a creek and not a natural barrier. There was a Ukrainian I followed who had contacts with insiders of the 66th Brigade… But he has not been active lately unfortunately.

The Russian strategy might look like a copy of the Ukrainian strategy in September on the other side of the Oskil - in which they try to get to the river as quickly as possible in a certain place (in this context the area around Borova) and then move on to the rest of the banks while clearing flanks. The difference is that today the concentration of forces in this sector generally speaking is enormously greater than in September, there are no Ukrainian formations to be caught by surprise and ready to flee and successes of that kind are in fact extremely unlikely.

I might regret it, but I still don’t see Ukrainian positions on the eastern side of the Oskil at risk, at least if the Ukrainians don’t decide on their own to withdraw - totally unexpected from them. The other areas north and south of Karmazynivka are held by more numerous and better equipped forces, and any relevant Russian attempt would likely see them suffer significant human and material losses; a second line that would still allow the Ukrainians to be at a safe distance from the Oskil are the villages between Pershotravneve and Cherneshchyna; in any case the Ukrainians really do have a lot of troops in the area (particularly around Torske) and thus the manpower to deal with such contingencies.