June 28, 2023
Jun 2023 - Larelli

The notorious RUAG-owned 96 Leopard 1s were never part of the Swiss armed forces, but of the Italian Army. In 1995, Italy upgraded 120 Leopard 1A2s to A5 standard as a gap filler while awaiting the delivery of the Ariete as the tanks the Army’s spearhead armoured brigades fielded, the M60A1s, and the rest of the enormous fleet of Leopard 1A2s were starting to get really old. In the 2000s with the delivery of the Arietes and the disbanding of quite a lot of tank regiments they were put into reserve; they were then sold to the Swiss RUAG in 2016 which was planning to upgrade such tanks to sell them to Brazil which is a big user of the Leopard 1A5 currently. For some reason, the deal fell through and the tanks have remained here ever since. There is evidence that in the Italian workshop where the dozens of M109Ls that Italy has sent to Ukraine have been refurbished, there was a Leopard in a seemingly Brazilian livery, perhaps a prototype updated at the time of the potential deal. They could be refurbished either in Italy or Germany. But in my opinion the fact they are Swiss-owned is not an insurmountable obstacle. They are on Italian territory and that is what matters: they could be expropriated, in exchange for their current market value (which has risen a lot since 2016, and RUAG might be happy about that). I hope the government will take action.


There are indications that the 11th VDV Brigade was deployed to Bakhmut. I thought they were in Kherson Oblast along with elements of the 7th Division. Certainly speaking about VDV we know that the 106th Division was instrumental in securing the flanks during the winter and is still deployed in the area; the 31st Brigade was deployed quickly during May to cover the flanks threatened by Ukrainian attacks and seems to be suffering very significant setbacks in terms of losses of officers of the formation (and consequently, we can guess, soldiers).

In general, Russia is quite in trouble there due to Wagner’s withdrawal, and this must be the reason why they are sending so many VDV units (I was reading rumors that they might send the 98th Division too) along with the mobilized of the 2nd Corps (former LPR formation) and the volunteers of 3rd Corps rushed from Avdiivka. This could be the cause of the small but steady Ukrainian advances they are making without deploying new units to the area. I think we will soon hear of a new major mobilization wave from Russia at this rate.


I agree, VDV is definitely wasted for that task, and despite the fact that the Russians have been knowing for months PMC Wagner would be disengaging from Bakhmut, their withdrawal was still a cold shower that caused them to have to bring in units from other sectors.

That said, VDV has been on average good in defense roles and when compared to the average of the Russian Army they look like a beacon of competence. At Kherson they had held up well, especially in the first month of the Ukrainian offensive, although the 83rd Brigade in particular took heavy losses.

I reckon a big problem for Russia is that they cannot find that “middle ground” between the competent forces that have to be kept on the frontlines (such as the VDV in Bakhmut and Kreminna and the naval infantry brigades in the sectors where Ukraine is on the offensive in the South) and the mass of mobilized forces of poor military quality. This is partly rooted in their military culture, partly a problem of attrition warfare - the bulk of the regular ground force units and especially their equipment suffered very heavy losses in the first 7 months of the war. This conundrum was partially overcome during the winter thanks to Wagner successfully exploiting the “expert core + cannon fodder” pair, while now it’s beginning to be felt more.