March 04, 2024
Mar 2024 - Larelli

Kudos to France, I hope that in the future Italy will enjoy this level of transparency in making donations public too, the German way! By the way, the Italian newspaper “Il Foglio” tried to calculate the financial value of Italian military aid and it is at least 2,2 billion euros. This matter is highly classified in Italy; the Italian Minister of Defense had said one month ago that Italy would be the second country in the EU after Germany in terms of the value of delivered aid, although I find it quite difficult that this could be true.

In any case, beyond these rankings, the military contribution from France and Italy has always been heavily, almost comically, underestimated by sources such as the Kiel Institute because of the state secrecy, not to mention the fact that unlike other countries the donations have not been partially reimbursed by the US or the EU. Although a lot depends on how the aid is accounted for, as hinted at - a Leopard 2A7+ or a M1A2 SEP V3 will be worth many times more than a T-72EA, but probably the Ukrainians, if they were to choose, would rather have 5+ units of the latter than just one of the formers.

From what I have anecdotally read from people inside the Italian Armed Forces, the warehouses are really almost empty (and there is no real plan yet to replenish them) and what could be sent without taking away from existing units has been sent. The surplus of weapons, shells and equipment from the Cold War and the following period that was still in decent conditions has virtually entirely been sent. Around 140 155mm howitzers, a few dozen 120mm mortars, MILAN ATGMs, an unspecified number of M113s and Iveco LMVs, around 5 thousand Browining M2s and Beretta MG-42/59s and so on. During 2022 there were days when even two Italian C-130Js, C-27Js, or KC-767As landed in Rzeszow, and during most days there was a flight, in addition to transports by truck or train.

Where countries which used to sit on relatively large stocks such as France and Italy lose to countries such as Denmark or the Netherlands (and to Germany too) is in the financial contributions for the purchase of equipment or shells (although I am pretty sure Italy, just like France, will contribute to the Czech plan regrding shells). But, for instance, I fear that doing as the aforementioned countries that do pay for newly made howitzers produced in e.g. Czech Republic or Slovakia in order to be shipped to Ukraine would not be accepted by the Italian parliament, let alone by the public opinion.