New update about the tactical situation of the front in Ukraine and on the events of the last month. Today I will comment on the sectors from Kupyansk to Horlivka, and tomorrow on those from Avdiivka to the Dnipro River. As usual, my main sources are the Ukrainian military observators Mashovets and Kovalenko, several Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels (e.g. WarArchive for geolocations) and of course DeepState. I suggest having a map under eye while reading, for instance DeepState or Andrew Perpetua’s. Another map I recommend is that of Motopatriot (you can find him on Telegram), who is a Russian and pro-Russia but his map is usually reliable (with a few exceptions, his lines almost entirely reflect my understanding of the tactical situation in the various sectors); it’s very useful especially for locating Ukrainian trenches and strongpoints, which are mapped thanks to satellite images or to videos by drones being posted.

Kupyansk sector. The 6th Army (= CAA) of the Leningrad Military District, with its 25th and 138th Motorized Brigades supported by several regiments of the Territorial Forces (344th, 350th, 352nd, 1843rd), continued its attack operations towards Synkivka, but there were very few successes. In January they had advanced 4/500 meters into the forest south of Lyman Pershyi, aiming to flank Synkivka from the north-west: the Ukrainian positions in the forest west of the village are very important for holding the former; nevertheless, no significant new advances have been recorded. At the moment the Russians, as I understand it, control the first two streets in the northern end of Synkivka, but from there they have not been capable of further progress. They are also trying to advance along the forest belt to the north-east of the village to approach it from that side. Recently the 1st Mechanized Battalion of the Ukrainian 30th Mech Brigade should have arrived in the area, thus joining the 2nd Mech Battalion of the same brigade in defending the village. The Ukrainian grouping around Kupyansk is very large and strong (I will not list every unit defending the area) and I believe it’s one of the few areas where the Ukrainians have numerical superiority. Moreover, the (small) 6th CAA is, in my opinion, the worst performing army of the Russian Armed Forces, both now and during the course of the war, although Russian sources state that the commanders of the very costly and unsuccessful attacks against Synkivka of December have been relieved.

The intensity and the number of directions from which the Russians are attacking has reduced significantly since the last part of 2023. In particular, the Russians attack sporadically and with little effort from Pershotravneve (where the 96th Reconnaissance Brigade of the 1st GTA was spotted), although Mashovets warned that they may become more active from this direction in the future. A few days ago the 3rd Mech Battalion of the 54th Mech Brigade (which confirmed that elements of this brigade are still in the sector!) repelled a Russian attack along a forest belt to the north-west of Orlyanka, preventing the Russians from reaching Height 195, an important Ukrainian position in the area.

The most interesting thing in this sector is that the Ukrainians were able to contain the Russian breakthrough in the Tabaikva/Krokhmalne direction which was carried out in January. The 103rd TDF Brigade and some reinforcements which arrived recently - the 1st Assault Battalion of the 67th Mech Brigade (which lost a couple of companies and the name “Da Vinci’s Wolves”, that joined a new battalion within the 59th Motorized Brigade) and elements of the 1st Special Purpose Brigade “Ivan Bohun” - were able to retake a few hundred meters near Tabaivka, preventing the Russians from crossing the Pischana River. Today the (very small) village is a gray area. At the same time the Russians, whose units involved in the area are mainly the 1st Tank Regiment and the 15th Motorized Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Division of the 1st Tank Army (= GTA) of the Moscow Military District, have been unable to break through the Ukrainian trenches along the P07 Road and to approach the heights around Kotlyarivka and Kyslivka. To support the Russian actions towards these two villages, the 7th Separate Motorized Regiment of the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet (although today, in theory, it should formally belong to the Leningrad MD, following the recent Russian reform) is attacking from Yahidne towards Ivanivka, but again, without success. Just to the south of the area affected by the breakthrough in January, the Russians still report the presence of elements of the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade, a sign that not all of the brigade was moved to Avdiivka.

Svatove sector. Nothing relevant to say. Last week some Russian Telegram channels totally randomly claimed that they had captured Makiivka, but as far as I understand there is no Russian progress towards this village after the advances during January.

Kreminna sector. The Ukrainians have all in all stabilized the situation between Terny and Yampolivka so far, after the Russians had managed to advance 6 kms towards the Zherebets River between early December and early February. Russian advances in the forested ravine that the Russians call “Alligator” (the largest of those descending towards Terny) were halted (with the Russians holding about slightly more than the half of the ravine), while in the ravine south of the former (“Mitten”), the Russians were never able to occupy positions. Russian sources complain of very stiff Ukrainian resistance and these areas being heavily mined. The 144th Motorized Division of the 20th CAA of the Moscow MD (i.e. the formation that had achieved the advances of December/January, particularly with its 283rd and 488th Motorized Regiments) suffered significant human and material losses. Dozens of armored vehicles were lost in the area, and from the Russian channel “Poisk in UA” I read that a woman searching for a MIA relative of hers (a serviceman of the 283rd Motorized Regiment) complained that there would be 20 men left in his company from the initial 120.

The Ukrainians have a relevant grouping in the area: near Terny, the 21st Mech Brigade, the 97th Mech Battalion of the 60th Mech Brigade, the 18th “Sloviansk” Brigade of the National Guard; while the 3rd Battalion of the 25th Airborne Brigade, transferred from here to Avdiivka in February, has been replaced by at least a battalion of the 95th Air Assault Brigade… the “firefighters” of the north-western front. A few days ago, I saw from a video released by them that the UAV unit of the “Azov” Brigade of the National Guard was active in this area, although I don’t know whether maneuver elements of this brigade were relocated here from the Serebrianka Forest. The area near Yampolivka, just to the south (towards which the 164th Motorized Brigade of the 25th CAA of the Central MD is active), is defended by the 63rd Mech Brigade, elements of the 4th Tank Brigade and some TDF battalions. Ukrainian sources report that lately the intensity of fighting has decreased and a rotation in the Russian side is underway. Elements of the 31st and 37th Motorized Regiments of the 67th Motorized Division of the 25th CAA, supported by elements of the 19th Tank Regiment of the same division, have entered action towards Terny.

Some assault companies of the 752nd Motorized Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Division of the 20th CAA of the MMD have been transferred to the area (from the area around Makiivka) in support of the 144th Motorized Division. As the Group of Forces “West” has gained jurisdiction over at least the area down to Yampolivka, elements of the 1st GTA are also being transferred to the Kreminna sector from Kupyansk. A battalion of the 2nd Motorized Division and another one of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st GTA are going to be transferred to the subordination of the 144th Motorized Division. In addition, elements of the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st GTA are arriving in Kreminna and Rubizhne, together with the 744th Artillery Regiment of the same division and the 347th Regiment of the Territorial Forces, to make up for the complete withdrawal from the Kreminna sector of the 90th Tank Division of the Central MD and the 348th Regiment of the Territorial Forces, which were transferred to Avdiivka. Therefore, the situation is still far from being completely stabilized.

The 169th Motorized Brigade of the 25th CAA continues, unsuccessfully, to push towards Dibrova. At the moment the Russian units active in the eastern part of the Serebrianka Forest are the 137th Motorized Brigade (per Mashovets is part of the 41st CAA of the CMD) and elements of the 201st Military Base of the CMD, along with some BARS detachments. Against them there is the “Azov” Brigade, supported by elements of the “Bureviy” and “Khartiia” Brigades of the National Guard. It seems that in February the “Azov” Brigade was able to gain a few hundred meters to the east, in the context of the broad fluidity of the lines inside the forest. Last part below.

Siversk sector. Bilohorivka (the one in Luhansk Oblast) continues to be heavily attacked by the Russians, specifically by the 127th Motorized Brigade (per some Russian sources it’s known as the 7th) of the 2nd Corps of the 8th CAA of the Southern MD. The Ukrainian 81st Airmobile Brigade is putting up very determined and capable resistance to Russian efforts there. From the chalk processing plant, the Russians had managed to advance a few hundred meters along the industrial area towards the center of the village, around one month ago, but they appear to have been stopped and were unable to drive the Ukrainians from their positions inside the chalk quarry. The 6th Motorized Brigade (which was likely reformed; it was the former 6th Motorized Regiment) of the 2nd Corps, along with elements of the 88th Motorized Brigade of the same corps, tried to advance into the area between Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne, but to no avail, thanks to defense opposed by the “Rubizh” Brigade of the National Guard and elements of the 54th Mech Brigade.

The 123rd Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps and the 51st and 119th Air Assault Regiments of the 106th VDV Division continued to push from the area near Vesele in the direction of Vyimka. By mid-February they had succeeded in advancing about 600 meters along the Siversk-Nyrkove railway, but since then no further progress has been made, either along this railroad or towards the heights north of Vesele, where in both cases there are several Ukrainian fortifications defended by the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade. Vesele is largely a gray area and the Russians have been unable to cross the Sukha Plotva River.

The 137th Air Assault Regiment of the 106th VDV Division and elements of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps are active in the area between Vasyukivka and Rozdolivka but no progress is being made, thanks to the defense by elements of the 30th Mech Brigade and of the 241st TDF Brigade.

Bakhmut sector. Northern flank. Here there is the most critical situation for the Ukrainians. The 200th Motorized Brigade of the 14th Corps of the Arctic Fleet (in theory, this, too, should now be part of the LMD), along with the “Sever-V” Brigade of the Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps, continues to push towards Bohdanivka, managing to record some slight advances within the village (of which they control about one third) and in the heights to its north-west. The village is defended by the 56th Motorized Brigade, a battalion each of the 93rd and 24th Mech Brigades, elements of the “Lyut” Brigade of the National Police and elements of the TDF.

In mid-February, the Russians (after some Ukrainian counterattacks that had stabilized the situation in January), specifically the 98th VDV Division, were able to advance both along the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar railway and from the Khromove cemetery, capturing the important Ukrainian trenches system located on either side of the railway. The area is defended by the 42nd Mech Brigade, the 214th Special Battalion OPFOR, the 21st and 23rd Special Purpose Battalions of the Separate Presidential Brigade and the 114th TDF Brigade. The Russians thus advanced 7/800 meters into the heights south-east of Bohdanivka in the direction of Chasiv Yar (occupying the Popov Forest and coming within 2 kms of the private sector of Chasiv Yar, in the part of the town to the east of the Donets-Donbas Canal) and in particularly (thanks also to the work of other units), managed to get Ivanivske into trouble, advancing about 2 kms from Khromove towards it. The 98th VDV Division is fully committed in the offensive. Among its three air assault regiments, the 217th is active in the direction of Bohdanivka, the 299th in the direction of Chasiv Yar and the 331st in the direction of Ivanivske. Moreover, around mid-February elements of the 150th Motorized Division (its 102nd Motorized Regiment and 68th Tank Regiment) of the 8th CAA were brought into the battle in the direction of Ivanivske from the Bakhmut dachas area, managing to advance about 1 km and occupy the first houses of the village, forcing the Ukrainians to abandon the positions in the fields to the north-east of Ivanivske, wedged between the two Russian attack axes. They are being assisted from the east by the 11th VDV Brigade and the “Kamerton” unit of the “Akhmat Special Forces”. Ivanivske is likely defended by one battalion each from the 92nd Assault Brigade and the 93rd Mech Brigade, the 17th Tank Brigade and elements of the TDF.

Between late February and early March, the Russians were able to make important and rapid advances within the village (which the Russians never managed to occupy at the time of the battle of Bakhmut). At the moment, as far as I understand, they occupy about half the village, including all of the part north of the T0504 Road. It’s unclear whether the Ukrainians will be able to stabilize the situation while avoiding the loss of the village. In such a case, the Russians would be about 1,5 km from the Donets-Donbas Canal and could approach Chasiv Yar from the south-east (let’s recall that this town is constantly being hit by Russian aviation and artillery), and it would also significantly worsen the situation for the Ukrainians near Klishchiivka.

Southern flank of Bakhmut. Tough battles continue in the area around Klishchiivka, but the Russians are still unable to make any headway. About half of the extensive system of fortifications north-west of the village, which includes the well-known Height 215 (which the Russians call the “Bald Mountain”), remains in Ukrainian hands. The Russians very often launch assaults in this area, which are repulsed, with significant losses on both sides.

Klishchiivka is defended by the bulk of the 93rd Mech Brigade, the 5th Assault Brigade, the 22nd Mech Brigade, elements of the 80th Air Assault Brigade and elements of the TDF. The bulk of the 92nd Assault Brigade is active in Andriivka, just to the south. Attacking from the east, the Russians are unable to make any progress towards these two villages and the Ukrainians even continue to hold the area of the ponds, east of the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway, between Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

As for the Russians, there are several motorized brigades of the 2nd Corps (4th, 85th and elements of the 88th) and the 3rd Corps in the area. I believe the latter formation is now deployed entirely in the southern flank of Bakhmut, although it should be small overall. It includes the 72nd Motorized Brigade, the 6th Motorized Division and the 17th High Power Artillery Brigade, all deployed in the area. The 6th Motorized Division was never fully completed. It was originally supposed to include three motorized regiments (54th, 55th and 57th) and the 10th Tank Regiment. The latter regiment has recently been transferred to the 20th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA; the 57th Motorized Regiment according to Ukrainian sources is supposed to be in Avdiivka but there have been no updates about it for months; while the 54th and the 55th probably don’t exist (they were said to be being trained in Belarus, but I found instances of people who had signed contracts with them and then were sent to units of the 2nd Corps). According to Mashovets, the 6th Motorized Division today includes the 1008th, 1194th and 1307th Regiments of the Territorial Forces.

The area around Klishchiivka is attacked by elements of the 2nd Corps and by the 1008th and 1307th Regiments (along with, probably, the 1428th Regiment of the Territorial Forces) as well as “Akhmat” detachments, while the 72nd Motorized Brigade along with the 1194th Regiment are active towards Andriivka. The 83rd VDV Brigade is also in the area. Kurdyumivka is home to the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla and elements of the 7th Military Base of the 49th CAA of the SMD, which have not made any progress towards Ukrainian positions, held by the 28th Mech Brigade and by elements of the “Pomsta” Brigade of the Border Guards (part of the Offensive Guard).

Mashovets urges attention to one thing: if the Russians by chance ever succeed in breaking through the Donets-Donbas Canal from the southern flank of Bakhmut and in advancing to the north along the H20 from Avdiivka, they could begin building an advance along the flanks of Toretsk, with the goal of putting the city inside a salient. Toretsk may in fact be a long-term Russian target.

Horlivka sector. Nothing to say.

See you tomorrow (I hope) for the rest of the front line!

It’s happening progressively, in the recent weeks in the direction of Terny there is an increasing involvement of subunits of the 67th Motorized Division of the 25th CAA and it’s also reported that elements of the 1st GTA are arriving in the Kreminna sector. Which in turn has weakened the Russian push in the Kupyansk sector, that nevertheless continues at a reduced intensity.

I don’t know that situation perfectly, but there should be several Ukrainian fortifications and trenches systems along the Donets-Donbas Canal before Chasiv Yar, which have been digged since the time of the battle of Bakhmut, for obvious reasons. The canal passes right along the heights (on which Chasiv Yar sits too). Topographically, the Ukrainian advantage is very considerable, but the other side of the coin is that the canal really must be defended at all costs. Letting the Russians reach the western bank and risking to lose Chasiv Yar, with the Russians getting access to the hydrographic basin of the Kryvyi Torets and the Kazenyi Torets Rivers, would be a disaster, with potential risks for the whole Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka conurbation.

Not inside the village of course, but in the wider area - between Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, where there is 2nd Assault Battalion of the 92nd Assault Brigade.

This is pretty great (credits to @clement_molin on Twitter).

Just note that the frontline map is not updated according to the developments of the last few weeks and also that the Ukrainians, albeit with numerous problems and difficulties, are indeed building many new fortifications in 2024.