March 19, 2024
Mar 2024 - Larelli

Really good job by Germany, there are more and more premises for which 2024 can be a decent year for Ukrainian artillery. I continue to be very curious about the Czech initiative, now that it’s up to 1,5 million shells among 155mm and 122mm (was it also said 152mm?). Evidence came out this week, for the first time, that South-Korean made 155mm shells are being used by the Ukrainians directly, and not just to allow the Western countries to replenish their own stocks. I wonder whether the 155mm shells produced by Rheinmetall in South Africa could be used directly by the Ukrainians or not. Turkey as well should be a big supplier, they have large stocks and no issue in supplying Ukraine directly. Most likely Pakistan, as happened in the past; maybe India also, according to rumors of the last weeks (I read that Ukrainian artillery crews forbid journalists visiting their positions to take pictures of shells).

The Czechs said that among the suppliers there are also allies of Russia. I also find it very plausible that Morocco and Egypt are going to be important suppliers. They are large users of 155mm howitzers and most likely have huge stocks, being very large armies. For Morocco it should not be a problem, being a pro-Western country (they had already shipped dozens of T-72Bs to the Czech Republic where they were upgraded to T-72EAs for Ukraine); for Egypt maybe it’s not so easy, but I suspect that the recent funding agreement with the European Union may have been a quid pro quo after a potential agreement to sell shells in order to be shipped directly to Ukraine. I rule out Algeria, although possibly Middle Eastern countries such as Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar could also be involved in the Czech project.