I personally think that Russia’s net gain in terms of manpower is somewhat worse than 15 thousand men per month right now, although there is always the option of a new mobilization wave. By the way, the demobilization of the men who were mobilized in September/October 2022 is a topic of growing importance in Russian social networks, but it doesn’t seem to be a priority at all.

I think we should consider that these new divisions, at least most of them, should be formed on the basis of existing brigades, which means adding 2/3 additional maneuver regiments (depending on whether or not there is a tank regiment, which is not certain at all), instead of 3/4, and also less manpower needs in support units as well.

I think the two new CAAs are going to be the current 11th and 14th Corps within the Leningrad Military District, with the reform of the existing brigades into divisions and new additional brigades/regiments; overall, the new divisions should be the 27th Motorized (Central MD); 46th and 47th Motorized (Southern MD); 68th, 69th, 72nd Motorized (Leningrad MD); 34th Artillery (Moscow MD). There have been no updates about the reform of the naval infantry brigades into divisions - for instance, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is still reported that way, and there are no news from either Russian or Ukrainian sources on the 55th Naval Infantry Division which is being created on the basis of the former.

The Ukrainian observer Kovalenko has recently clarified the situation of the new 44th Corps: it should be headquartered in Luga (Leningrad Oblast - it is unclear whether it will be part of the 6th CAA or one of the two new CAAs); it will be formed by the 72nd Motorized Division based in Petrozavodsk (Karelia), the 128th Motorized Brigade based in Sortavala (Karelia), the 70th Rocket Brigade based in Petrozavodsk; the artillery component will be provided mostly by the 9th Artillery Brigade of the 6th CAA, which is based in Luga too. The commander will be Alexander Dembitsky, i.e. the former commander of the 83rd VDV Brigade about a decade ago and currently the deputy commander of the 1st GTA. It is known that it will host a significant number of foreigners: around 10% of its complement. In any case, it is said that this corps will be well staffed.

Among the new brigades, overall, and except those mentioned above… 26th Motorized (Southern MD); 89th and 94th Motorized (Eastern MD); 263rd Motorized (possibly Moscow MD); 104th Artillery (Leningrad MD); 273rd and 303rd Artillery (Moscow MD, as part of the 34th Artillery Division); 119th Signal and 42nd Control (Moscow MD); likely new air assault brigades as part of the CAAs; possibly the 77th Naval Infantry Brigade on the basis of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment.

A batch of 2S1 Gvozdikas was also recently shipped among those APCs, right?

I had seen that here: https://t.me/milinfolive/117843

Russian sources have criticized the Tigr for safety shortcomings. Also, I had read that they used American engines and transmissions. Today they are mainly used by Rosgvardia in the rear or e.g. as a base for SHORAD systems. Lots of Russian units were supplied with Remdiesel Z-STS “Akhmat” starting since spring 2023. While the 55th Mountain Brigade as well as some Spetsnaz GRU brigades seem to have replaced most of their Tigr-Ms with the AMN-590951 “VPK-Ural”. Which in both cases, unlike the Tigr, are actually classifiable as MRAPs.

They are used all along the front: Avdiivka, Velyka Novosilka, Orikhiv, Kreminna… They are probably assigned to the assault detachments of the brigades/regiments as well as to reconnaissance units. I think the goal is to completely sacrifice safety in favor of speed and, to some extent, concealment, if compared to an APC.