I think both of you are right. One of Ukraine’s main goals is definitely to reduce the amount of missile carriers in the Black Sea, although it’s true that actually the biggest limitation at the moment is the number of available missiles.

The issue is that the Black Sea Fleet has some regenerative capacity, although things are not very rosy either. At the moment, according to Ukrainian sources, the currently operational platforms that can carry out attacks with Kalibrs from the Black Sea are 2 frigates, 4 corvettes, and 2 submarines - all of which are in Novorossiysk (and often act from the waters to the east of the base), with the exception of the “Tsiklon” corvette, which also acts as an anti-air defense platform for the naval base of Sevastopol…

In December 2023, the Karakurt-class “Tucha” corvette was received: it’s capable of accommodating up to 8 Kalibr-NKs; it was manufactured by Zelenodolsk Shipyard in Tatarstan and arrived via the Volga-Don channel. Right now it’s undergoing trials in Novorossiysk and will have to replace the “Askold” corvette which is under repair in Kerch after being heavily damaged last year.

In the same month the “Amur” corvette, built by Zaliv Shipbuilding Yard in Kerch, was received too. In this case, however, there were problems with the radar and communication systems, which delayed substantially its entry into service. This ship is at the naval base in Novorossiysk, where the Russians are fixing the ship’s radar system and, like the “Tucha”, should enter service in the coming weeks or months.

During 2024 the “Typhoon” corvette should also be received, from the Zelenodolsk Shipyard.

So broadly speaking, the number of missile carriers is limited, but there are some replacements incoming, and given where the ships usually operate, it will not be easy to significantly reduce that fleet. There is also the option for the Russians, difficult but technically possible (they have done so in the past in several instances), to employ Kalibrs against Ukraine from their corvettes in the Caspian Sea.

In addition, as far as landing ships are concerned, repairs of the Ropucha-class “Konstantin Olshansky” have recently started. This ship was captured in 2014 from the Southern Naval Base of the Ukrainian Navy, during the seizure of Crimea.