An update from the front in Ukraine. Today I will analyze the sectors from Kharkiv to Siversk.

Kharkiv sector. Over the past week there have been several Ukrainian counterattacks, some of them successful, and as a result the Russians have lost their momentum and are on a defensive stance in certain sections of the sector - a regrouping of troops in their side is under way.

Per the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets, the Russians are committing 15 maneuver battalions (motorized, rifle, tank) in the direction of Vovchansk, 11 maneuver battalions in the direction of Lyptsi, and have 12 maneuver battalions in the rest of Belgorod Oblast, which aren’t involved in active operations but are covering the border.

The forces of the 11th Corps are engaged in the direction of Lyptsi, but there have been no successes in the last week; rather, the Ukrainians (we will see the order of battle later) have repulsed Russian attacks on Lyptsi and pushed back the forward Russian units that had come dangerously close to the latter small town, after advancing along the western bank of the Lypets River. In this section of the front the lines are fluid, there are frequent attacks and counterattacks between the two sides. The Ukrainians should control almost the entire area of the dachas along the Travyanske Reservoir and the positions along the tree lines halfway between Hlyboke and Lyptsi.

Per Mashovets, the assault units of the 11th Corps (which includes the 18th Motorized Division and the 7th Separate Motorized Regiment) have suffered losses and are reorganizing. In this area there’s also the “Africa Corps”, i.e. the direct heir of PMC Wagner, which was supposed to be exclusively deployed on the African continent.

To the south of Lukyantsi the Russians have no progress. The current situation in Zelene is not well clear; it should still be in Ukrainian hands, however, and the Russians have not developed further success in that section. From here to the direction of Vovchansk the front line has remained similar to pre-May 10: a grey area straddling the border - the Russians have chosen for the time being not to develop offensive actions in this area.

On the western bank of the Siversky Donets, the Russians are trying to consolidate control over the northern bank of the Starytsya River in the homonymous settlement and in the nearby Buhruvatka. On the eastern bank of the Siversky Donets, in the future the Russians may try to force the Vovcha River from Hatyshche in the direction of Synelnykove through the pine forest, aiming to flank Vovchansk from the west. But this is not yet the case and the Vovcha, both in this area as well as inside Vovchansk and to the east of the town, constitutes a very important defense line for the Ukrainians. However, the Russians are still far from conquering the part of Vovchansk north of the Vovcha: very violent urban clashes have been going on for weeks now (with the town progressively razed to the ground), despite the fact that the bridges over the Vovcha have been destroyed (the Ukrainians are trying to make up for that through pontoon bridges, in order to bring armored vehicles to the northern bank).

West of Soborna Street (the main street, it bisects Vovchansk longitudinally), the Russians control the Vovchansk Central District Hospital and the area around the bridges leading to the Vovchansk oil extraction plant. There are clashes in the area around High School No. 2 and, generally, between Haharina and Dukhovna streets. The Russians are still unable to approach the bridge along Soborna Street towards the southern part of the town.

East of Soborna Street, there is harsh fighting in the area of the high rises and the sports-recreational complex, with Russian assault groups trying to infiltrate the high-rise buildings. Further south, the municipal park and the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant are fully in Ukrainian hands. In the eastern part of the town, counterattacks by subunits of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade have pushed the Russians back from Hoholia Street, causing them to retreat to Korolenka Street, where the current forward Russian positions in that part of Vovchansk should currently be. In the eastern end of the town, in the area of Starochudnoho Street, the Russians on the other hand control as far as the Vovcha River. The current status of Tykhe is unclear, but in any case, the bridge over the Vovcha is destroyed there as well. For the time being, the Russians are not trying to attack further east. In general, the Vovcha is proving, in the points where the Russians have reached it, to be a reliable line, although the farther east one goes, the more shallow it becomes, as one approaches its source (in Russian territory).

Per Mashovets, the main target of the Kharkiv operation is not the city, but the back of the Kupyansk sector, i.e. the western bank of the Oskil River (specifically, the direction of Velykyi Burluk). Now the main concern of the Russians is to decide whether to open new fronts (Kozacha Lapan, Velyka Pysarivka…) or to concentrate their reserves in the current sector to resolve the Vovchansk issue. They can do one of these two things, but not both of them, at the current state of affairs.

The “Northern Channel” Telegram channel (nick: “severnnyi”) had stated that there were rumors that Lapin would be removed as commander of the Group of Forces “North” and replaced by the commander of the 41st CAA; this turned out to be a half-truth: according to them Lapin will not be replaced eventually, but the commander of the 41st CAA, Kravtsov, should become deputy commander of the GoF “North”, and if this was indeed the case, I suppose also of the Leningrad Military District. This is not yet confirmed by official Russian sources or Ukrainian ones.

In any case, this channel is very interesting because it’s in channels like these where it’s still possible to find criticism of the system and denunciation of problems from people who actually fight (and support their army - they are not deserters or dissidents).

Last week it had mentioned that there were serious problems with casualties in the assault units (it’s said that 6500 hospital beds had been prepared in Belgorod for the wounded from this offensive and there is a lot of flow in the hospitals there), which are causing manpower issues and withdrawal of some assault units for recovery. Let’s remember that, according to this channel, on May 14 alone the units of the GoF “North” had 76 KIAs and 203 WIAs. Reportedly, there has been a case of abandonment of positions by subunits of the 9th Motorized Regiment (18th Motorized Division) near Lyptsi and, in general, there are serious problems with discipline and deserting personnel within the “Storm-V” detachments (those manned by convicts). It had also written that the 83rd VDV Brigade was being transferred in Shebekino in order to be brought into battle. This was later confirmed by Ukrainian sources: Kriegsforscher (the well-known UAV operator) wrote that the 83rd VDV Brigade had recently been transferred here (from the southern flank of the Bakhmut sector). Mashovets also spoke of unspecified air assault elements arriving in the Kharkiv sector. This is in addition to a battalion of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th VDV Division that is covering the border in Belgorod Oblast while in R&R.

This channel also mentioned in recent days that the 41st Motorized Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Division of the 44th Corps (which is active west of Vovchansk) was about to be withdrawn for R&R after major losses and would be replaced by the 128th Motorized Brigade of the 44th Corps, which would be brought into battle for the first time. Instead, it wrote yesterday that elements of the 41st Regiment are going to remain in the battle, after having been reinforced by 300 men who arrived to replenish the ranks. There is still no evidence about the 128th Brigade being committed. Additional Russian reserves in the sector are the 30th Motorized Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Division (only small subunits of it have been committed so far), and the additional motorized regiment of the division which is expected to arrive in the future. Today it stated that a battalion of the 83rd VDV Brigade has replaced the forces of the 1009th Regiment of the Territorial Forces to the east of Vovchansk, near Tykhe. Second part below.

Elements of the 7th Separate Motorized Regiment of the 11th Corps that were in the Kupyansk sector (specifically, near Synkivka) were reportedly transferred near Lyptsi with the rest of the regiment. According to Russian sources, several “Akhmat” units have been transferred to an area closer to Sumy Oblast, with the aim of covering the border. In the sector there are the Kadyrovites of the “Akhmat-Zapad” Battalion; the 349th Regiment (“Akhmat-Russia”) and the 1434th Regiment (“Akhmat-Chechnya”) of the Territorial Forces, which I believe is manned by mobilized men from Chechnya. Per Mashovets, the latter regiment is deployed around Grayvoron. What is certain is that, as usual, the Kadyrovites seem to be escaping the most difficult sections of the front.

The 138th Motorized Brigade of the 6th CAA is the main force inside Vovchansk. It’s supported by elements of the 25th Motorized Brigade of the same army (other elements should still be in the Kupyansk sector, but will probably be moved entirely to Kharkiv in the future) and by the regiments of the Territorial Forces attached to the 6th CAA, specifically the 344th Regiment and the 1009th Regiment; the 346th Regiment should have arrived recently too. From the Russian MIA notices on VK I found that the MIAs of the 138th Motorized Brigade are also referred to as servicemen of the 82nd Motorized Regiment of the 69th Motorized Division, which is the first time such a unit is mentioned. Mashovets at the beginning of the year had mentioned the 69th Motorized Division, which was being created as part of the Leningrad MD. Apparently, it may have been raised on the basis of the 138th Motorized Brigade and as part of the 6th CAA - in general, this seems to be the current Russia’s modus operandi to raise new divisions: reforming existing brigades, which means one less maneuver regiment to staff and equip (as the existing brigade becomes a regiment) and having part of the HQ staff already “ready”. I also saw the 89th Motorized Regiment (currently unknown unit) being mentioned as part of this division, on VK.

To the west of Vochansk there are subunits of the 1st GTA: elements of the 272nd Motorized Regiment and of the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division and elements of the 1st Motorized Regiment and of the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Division. Let’s recall that several Russian SF/SOF units (such as the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade GRU) are also active in the sector. Some Ukrainian sources report transfers of Russian reserves from Kherson Oblast, but there’s still not evidence to confirm that. What is certain is that the units deployed at the moment are not sufficient to develop a serious operational advantage in the sector…

Of course, things are not easy on the Ukrainian side either, and numerous reinforcements had to arrive. Ruslan Mykula, one of the founders of DeepState, had written that the 36th Marine Brigade was transferred to the Kharkiv sector (specifically, to Vovchansk) from Kherson despite the initial promise of a period of rest. Initially its 2nd Battalion arrived, last week the 501st Battalion as well. Additional elements of the 42nd Mech Brigade arrived in the sector, including its tank battalion; originally near Lyptsi, although they now appear to be in action near Starytsya.

Elements of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade are active in Vovchansk, where its Strykers have been engaged in counterattacks. One battalion of this brigade, according to my research, was already in Kharkiv Oblast before the start of hostilities. It’s unclear whether other battalions have been transferred from the Orikhiv sector (it’s likely, though), where the brigade has been engaged so far. The entire 57th Motorized Brigade is also active in Vovchansk - some elements were here from before, while the rest were transferred from the Kupyansk sector. According to an officer of this brigade, the brigade’s battalions are under-strength, however. Elements of the 71st Jager Brigade are also active in Vovchansk. The 101st Brigade for the Protection of the General Staff has also arrived in the sector, as have elements of the 3rd and of the 17th Tank Brigades. Let’s also not forget numerous units of the HUR, including elements of the “Kraken” Special Detachment and the “Tymur” Special Unit, as well as the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion.

The “Safari” Assault Regiment of the “Lyut” Brigade of the National Police has arrived in Vovchansk too. As far as I have read from Ukrainian sources, in this regiment there are also policemen from the “Dnipro-1” Regiment – this latter unit was originally supposed to become part of the brigade, but its members protested, as they were to become stormtroopers. In response, the Ukrainian command disbanded the regiment and transferred the policemen to other units of the “Lyut” Brigade. The same source reports that these policemen are performing well. According to Mykula, the members of this brigade who were to be transferred to Kharkiv firstly learned about their transfer from Russian sources (TASS).

A grouping of units of the National Guard is active around Lyptsi: elements of the “Khartiia” and of the “Rubizh” Brigades, the 2nd Assault Detachment of the “Omega Group” (the SF unit of the NG) and the “Peaky Blinders” UAV unit, fighting together with elements of the 92nd Assault Brigade. Territorial defense forces, primarily the 125th TDF Brigade (and some battalions for instance of the 120th TDF Brigade among others, as well as detachments of Border Guards), hold the front between the two main Russian attack directions.

As we can see, Ukraine has deployed on average capable units as reinforcements in response to the Russian offensive, and so far things are working, even if that’s a further strain to Ukrainian resources. But we will see if any Ukrainian successes will force the Russians to move units from other sectors to this one, as they are already beginning to do. The Ukrainians in this sector have large availability of shells to my knowledge (to some extent, to the detriment of other sectors), but Ukrainian artillery has been paying a serious toll to Russian Lancets. Last part below.

Kupyansk sector. The transfer of much of the 6th CAA to the Kharkiv sector has decreased pressure on Synkivka, although the Russians have recently consolidated total control over the long latitudinal forest belt north-east of the village, according to DeepState. However, the situation remains difficult in the eastern part of this sector. The 26th Tank Regiment and elements of the 272nd Motorized Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st GTA continue to push, after having captured Kyslivka and Kotlyarivka: last week they were able to occupy Ivanivka, defended by the 43rd Mech Brigade; the Ukrainians retreated to Stepova Novoselivka. The Russian objective is clear: to approach Kupyansk and the Oskil River by advancing along the Kupyansk-Svatove railway and along the valley of the Hnylytsya stream…

Svatove sector. The 15th Motorized Regiment and elements of the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Division of the 1st GTA have occupied most of Berestove. This complicates the situation for the forward positions of the 77th Airmobile Brigade west of Novoselivske, which are directly attacked by the 27th Motorized Brigade of the 1st GTA. There are limited Russian advances further south: elements of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st GTA (primarily its 423rd Motorized Regiment) have managed to advance, approaching Stelmakhivka and Miasozharivka, which are defended by the 44th Mech Brigade.

The elements of the 3rd Assault Brigade deployed in Novoyehorivka and Makiivka are stopping the attacks by the 3rd Motorized Division of the 20th CAA, supporting other Ukrainian units there, such as the 66th Mech Brigade and the 107th TDF Brigade. The 22nd Special Purpose Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade and elements of the “Rubizh” Brigade of the National Guard (which may have been entirely pulled out of the Siversk sector, with the exception of its “Svoboda” Battalion) have arrived in the area. The Russian 3rd Motorized Division is attacking this not-so-much known sector of the front with great intensity, but Ukrainian reinforcements are successfully preventing any sizeable progress for the Russians.

Kreminna sector. The situation is under Ukrainian control. Russian attacks against Novosadove, Terny and Yampolivka have not brought tangible results for three months. It appears that the 144th Motorized Division of the 20th CAA has lost a major part of its offensive potential, and in addition to this the battalions from formations of the 1st GTA that had been deployed in this area back in February have likely fully returned to the Kupyansk sector or have been transferred to the Kharkiv sector. The 25th CAA is active in Torske, Dibrova and the Serebrianka Forest, but again without any progress. Attacks by the 164th Motorized Brigade of the 25th CAA to the west of Dibrova proved unsuccessful, thanks to the work of the “Bureviy” Brigade of the National Guard.

Siversk sector. The situation in Bilohorivka is deteriorating. The 81st Airmobile Brigade, reinforced by a battalion each from the 119th TDF Brigade and from the 3rd Tank Brigade, is doing what it can and inflicting serious losses on the Russians (7th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps). The Ukrainians are preventing the Russians from developing success in the area near the Siversky Donets, and the Russian mechanized attacks from Shypylivka that have occurred over the recent months have all been repulsed. However, by attacking from the chalk processing plant, the Russians have consolidated control in the rest of the village’s industrial area and, from there, they sometimes succeed in entering the private sector of the settlement, the eastern part of which is a grey area. Last week they had placed a couple of Russian flags closer to the center of the village, one by drone, and another most likely by hand, but I rule out that the Russians have consolidated into the houses of the private sector, at least not as deeply. Near the chalk quarry, the Russians again approached the slopes of the terrikon in the south-east of the quarry, which remains fully in Ukrainian control, thanks to which the latters visually dominate the entire area around from the top.

Further south, attacks by the 6th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps towards Verkhnokamyanske were repulsed by the 54th Mech Brigade, reinforced by elements of the 118th TDF Brigade. The Russians are reinforced by some regiments of the Territorial Forces (e.g. the 1102nd) and elements of the “Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps”. Specifically, the Russians have attacked hard, particularly during April, the trenches system south of the Verkhnokamyanske-Zolotarivka Road (just east of the border between Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts – you can see them from a satellite view), succeeding in reaching these trenches thanks to several mechanized attacks, but proving unable to consolidate control over them (which remained in Ukrainian hands), and suffering extensive human and material losses. This fortification is defended by the known “K-2” Battalion (i.e. the 2nd Mech Battalion of the 54th Mech Brigade), which has produced several very interesting videos about the clashes for this strongpoint on their YT channel.

Things are not any easier on the southern slope of the salient. The 123rd Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Corps continues its attacks against Spirne, Vyimka and Ivano-Darivka. Spirne is defended by the 54th Mech Brigade. The Russians often attempt mechanized attacks against this settlement from both the east and the south, sometimes succeeding in reaching the built-up area but later being repulsed.

The 106th VDV Division, fully deployed on the southern slope of the Siversk salient, is attacking the heights north of Vesele and to the west of the Siversk-Nyrkove railway, while simultaneously attempting to reach Rozdolivka, currently without success. The southern part of the salient is covered by the (tired) 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, reinforced by several separate rifle battalions. Given the Russians' difficulties in advancing from the east, their plan seems to be to try to liquidate the salient by attacking from the south, approaching Siversk by advancing along the Siversk-Nyrkove railway. Let’s recall that the capture of Siversk is a necessary condition to develop potential further offensive operations in the direction of the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk conurbation…

The south-western part of the salient is covered by elements of the 30th Mech Brigade, the 4th Mech Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade, and some elements of the TDF, particularly of the 241st TDF Brigade, as well as separate rifle battalions. One area worth mentioning is the one from Vasyukivka to Hryhorivka, covered, as far as the Russian side is concerned, by elements of the “Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps” (which, let’s remember, includes volunteer units, former PMCs and BARS detachments) and has never been affected by serious Russian attacks, unlike the neighboring areas. Tomorrow we will check the situation from Bakhmut to Kherson!