Here we are for the second part of my analysis on the tactical situation of the front line in Ukraine, after the first yesterday.

Bakhmut sector. On the northern flank, the 200th Motorized Brigade of the 14th Corps is attacking Kalinina. They have had successes in the forest belts to the north-east of the settlement, trying to approach the cattle breeding buildings north of the village, located around Hill 228. As it seemed like yesterday, the Russians have not been able yet to enter the built-up area of Kalinina by attacking from the east, which is defended by the 56th Motorized Brigade and a battalion each of the 24th and 93rd Mech Brigades. Today, however, a very interesting video came out, released by the 56th Motorized Brigade. When I do full updates like this time I don’t put links for space reasons, but I will make an exception (NSFL).

https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/15561

https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/15562

A Russian MT-LB crosses the road over the Donets-Donbas Canal to the part of Kalinina to the west of the canal, unloads stormtroopers and leaves. The stormtroopers are later attacked by FPV drones, then there is another video showing the same MT-LB passing over some Russian soldiers. According to the channel that geolocated the video, the MT-LB (which was later reportedly destroyed) allegedly took a wrong turn and got lost, ending up right against Ukrainian positions. It is, in any case, the first geolocation so far showing Russians west of the canal. While the attack actually seems very random, this explanation doesn’t clarify how a Russian vehicle could have crossed the canal in first place: it would imply that Kalinina may have been abandoned by the Ukrainians, at least if the soldiers defending this village were not all having lunch at the same time. We will know more about the situation in the coming days.

Further south, the 98th VDV Division managed to record another small advance along the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar railway and capture almost the entire area of the holiday cottages between the railroad and the Kanal District of Chasiv Yar. As a reminder, Chasiv Yar is defended by a quite large grouping: the 41st Mech Brigade, the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, elements of the “Kraken” Special Detachment of the HUR (and other units of the latter), elements of the Separate Presidential Brigade (1st Mech Battalion and 23rd Special Purpose Battalion), elements of the 4th Tank Brigade, separate rifle battalions and territorial defense battalions (e.g. a battalion of the 126th TDF Brigade).

Attacks against the Kanal District by Russian paratroopers continued, with numerous mechanized attacks using T-90Ms and BMDs. They succeeded not only in occupying the buildings east of the intersection of Zelena Street with Horbatoho Street, but also the high-rise south-west of the intersection, as well as the one to the north. The Russians have also approached the Kanal District from the south, taking control of the forest belt that goes up to the garages south of the high rises, including the garages themselves. Violent urban clashes are currently taking place in the area of the Vocational School No. 77. The goal of the Russians here is simple: to try to get as many men as possible into the district, more and more, and have them entrenched inside the high rises, making it very difficult for the Ukrainians to attempt counterattacks and regain control of them. In the southern area of the district, the situation is not extremely clear; it is likely that the Russians entered some high-rise buildings, were subsequently pushed back and so on. The Russians' objective in this area is to approach the Kindergarten No. 32 and thus the central part of the district.

The fighting is really hard, on the Ukrainian side often the positions in the high-rises are held by HUR operatives, who are the ones counterattacking against the buildings under Russian control. Although the bridge over the Donets-Donbas Canal on Koshovoho Street has been destroyed, the Ukrainians have filled the bottom with earth and created an embankment over which even armored vehicles can pass. Ukrainian tanks often enter the district to provide support for their troops and fire at the high-rise buildings where the Russians are, as well as APCs/MRAPs bringing in new troops and supplies and evacuating the wounded. The Russians shell the district with every means at their disposal, but at the same time they complain that Ukrainian drones are hampering their efforts, as well as becoming much more active over the past week.

According to Kir Sazonov, a military blogger and soldier in the 41st Mech Brigade, the situation is difficult but the district is holding; the 98th VDV Division has reportedly lost much of its fighting capability and elements of it have been moved to the rear for recovery. Per the observer Mashovets, battalions of the “Cossack Volunteer Assault Corps” were attached to the 98th VDV Division to lead the assaults against Chasiv Yar. In the area of Chasiv Yar, for instance, the Assault and Recon Brigade “Vostok-V” is active; Boris Nizhevenok, former commander of an assault detachment of PMC Wagner, recently became commander of this brigade. The CVAC has attracted many former Wagnerites, at least in a part of its brigades. The quality of the servicemen of this corps is very diverse: there are indeed very experienced veterans, but also elders who volunteered on an ideological basis.

The 5th Assault Brigade and elements of the 67th Mech Brigade are defending the terrain south-west and south of Ivanivske, trying to prevent the Russians both from gaining further ground along the Donets-Donbas Canal in the direction of Stupochky and from flanking Ukrainian positions in the heights north-west of Klishchiivka. There are some Russian advances - according to a geolocation published today, the Russians (units of the 150th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA are active in this area: the 102nd Motorized Regiment and elements of the 68th Tank Regiment) have advanced about 600 meters along a forest belt south of Ivanivske. As far as I could find, from a MIA notice, a battalion of Ukraine’s new 151st Mech Brigade may have been deployed in this area during May. In addition, the 11th VDV Brigade has consolidated its gains along the canal in both the forest area in the nature reserve south of the Kanal District and around Road T0504, further south. From the forest, they are attempting to cross the canal (which passes underground and into overground pipes in that point) in the direction of the Novy District - currently without success, although Russian sources state that they managed to cross the canal. This area is being defended by the 18th “Sloviansk” Brigade of the National Guard. The Kanal District is progressively being surrounded on three sides, and as a result, its future holding is at risk.

On the southern flank, the Russians have succeeded over the past few weeks in occupying much of Klishchiivka (with the exception of the southern end, which remains a grey area). The forward Ukrainian positions are now in the forest (or what remains of it) west of the village, as well as in the forest belts to the south-west. According to reports from Russian channels, the Ukrainians abandoned their positions in Klishchiivka during the first half of May, firstly near the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway and later in what’s left of the settlement.

The return to battle of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps allowed to achieve these tactical successes and occupy the ruins of Klishchiivka. The 89th Tank Regiment, a unit of the Territorial Forces, appears to be part of this division, which is also formed by the 1008th, 1194th and 1307th Regiments of the Territorial Forces (in addition to the 57th Motorized Regiment, which should be in the Marinka sector, and the 54th Motorized Regiment, which is being formed). The 4th, 85th and 88th Motorized Brigades of the 2nd Corps are attacking from the north, both towards the village and the heights north-west of it - which remain in Ukrainian hands at the moment, including Hill 215. No Russian advances are reported in the direction of Hill 227, further west. In the Klishchiivka area on the Ukrainian side there’s the bulk of the 93rd Mech Brigade, the 22nd Mech Brigade, the 2nd Battalion of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, to which elements of the 5th “Slobozhansk” Brigade of the National Guard are attached, as well as TDF units.

The Russians have consolidated control in the area of the ponds between Klishchiivka and Andriivka and over the “Alabaster” railway station, a little further south. The situation in Andriivka, defended by elements of the 92nd Assault Brigade, is not entirely clear. I believe it’s a grey area at the moment, but certainly the two “latitudinal” forest belts (where Hill 220 is) between the canal and the Bakhmut-Horlivka railway are in Ukrainian hands. The village is attacked by the 72nd Motorized Brigade of the 3rd Corps and by the 7th Military Base of the 49th CAA. The 83rd VDV Brigade, as seen yesterday, should have been moved to the Kharkiv sector. There are no Russian advances in Kurdyumivka, where the 177th Separate Naval Infantry Regiment is deployed. In the area, on the Ukrainian side, there are most of the 28th Mech Brigade and the “Pomsta” Brigade of the Border Guards.

Horlivka sector. Nothing to write about. Second part below.

Avdiivka sector. In the second half of May, the Russians resumed offensive actions against Ukrainian positions, achieving several successes over the past week. After consolidating control west of Arkhanhelske up to the ponds, the 35th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA is attacking in the direction of Kalynove, while the 132nd Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps is concentrating its efforts further east, along the H20 Highway, in the direction of Oleksandropil. This area is being defended by the 109th TDF Brigade, along with a battalion of the 129th TDF Brigade, as well as separate rifle battalions. At the moment the Russians have no advances, partly due to the fact that there are numerous Ukrainian trenches in the area.

The Russians are attacking Novooleksandrivka very heavily - the 30th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd CAA is active in this area (probably some of its battalions are in R&R), recently reinforced by the 137th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA, which returned to battle after around a month and a half of recovery. At the same time, the Ukrainians are defending themselves vigorously: Russian sources report that the volume of Ukrainian fires in the area has increased significantly in the recent days, including with regard to 122mm rockets, in addition to very high drone activity.

Russian units and their armored vehicles succeeded several times in reaching the eastern end of Novooleksandrivka, but proving unable to gain control of the houses there. At the same time, the Russians managed to advance about 1 km northwards, north-east of Novooleksandrivka, along a forest belt. This could also endanger some Ukrainian positions in the area between Kalynove and Arkhanhelske. The Novooleksandrivka area is defended by the 110th Mech Brigade, which is doing a good job after returning to battle, and is supported by the 100th Mech Brigade and by elements of the 111th TDF Brigade as well as separate rifle battalions.

South of Novooleksandrivka, near the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway, the 433rd Motorized Regiment of the 27th Motorized Division of the 2nd CAA is active, and it recently succeeded in capturing a forest belt south of Novooleksandrivka and a Ukrainian fortification just south of the railway, in the direction of Sokil. According to Mashovets, an additional regiment of the 27th Motorized Division was committed. We are probably talking about the 589th Motorized Regiment, which has some MIA notices in Russian social media.

The 55th Mountain Brigade of the 41st CAA was recently removed from the front line according to Russian sources. Today it’s the 15th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd CAA, back in the battle, attacking towards Sokil. With clear Russian advances: they have succeeded in taking control of the “longitudinal” forest belt east of Sokil, where battles against the 47th Mech Brigade took place last week (that saw extensive use of Bradleys), as, a little further south, of the “L” shaped trench along the road between Sokil and Soloviove. The Russians are now able to threaten Sokil directly. Elements of the 90th Tank Division (at least of its units not engaged in the southern flank of the Avdiivka sector) provide support (both armored and infantry) to the other units engaged in action.

Let’s recall that the 47th Mech Brigade, reinforced by separate rifle and TDF battalions, is defending the section of the front between Sokil and Novopokrovske. The Russians over the past week have also advanced about 800 meters along the Balka Ocheretina (a small stream), thus approaching Novopokrovske from the north-east.

The 74th Motorized Brigade of the 41st CAA is attacking towards Novoprokovske from the south-east, with an advance of about 1,5 km in the last two weeks along the forest belts west of Semenivka. The area between Novopokrovske and Umanske is defended by the 68th Jager Brigade, which is conducting rear-guard battles with the aim of slowing the Russian advance in the direction of Novoselivka Persha.

The 114th Motorized Brigade of 1st Corps has managed to fully capture Umanske, on both sides of the Durna River. It is now attacking northwards in the direction of Novoselivka Persha, with limited successes. According to Russian social media reports, some “batches” of servicemen of the 201st Military Base have been transferred to the 114th Motorized Brigade and to units of the 90th Tank Division to replenish their ranks.

Elements of the 90th Tank Division and the 1st Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps are engaged in attacks against Yasnobrodivka: they have occupied most of the Umanske-Netailove Road and are a few hundred meters from the first village. However, the forest belts south and south-east of Yasnobrodivka, including the one close to the road, should still be in Ukrainian hands. Elements of the 71st Jager Brigade are active between Umanske and Yasnobrodivka, while the 25th Airborne Brigade defends the area between Yasnobrodivka and Netailove, along with the 78th Air Assault Regiment. The 53rd Mech Brigade, as far as I could find, has been moved for R&R to cover the border in Sumy Oblast.

The 9th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps entirely captured Netailove last week. It is now attacking both northwards (in the direction of Yasnobrodivka) and westwards (in the direction of Karlivka). In the last direction, the Russians managed to capture the shore in the eastern end of the Karlovske Reservoir. Currently, therefore, the Ukrainians in Yasnobrodivka are in a “V” shaped strip of land between the two arms of the reservoir. Elements of Ukraine’s 1st Tank Brigade should have arrived in Karlivka as a reserve.

The Russians are also advancing southwards, capturing the entire area of the industrial zone south of Netailove as far as the course of the Balka Domakha. The situation thus becomes even more complicated for Nevelske, which is almost surrounded on three sides. This area is defended by the 59th Motorized Brigade.

Marinka sector. The situation in Krasnohorivka is very difficult. The Russians control about half of the town. The 5th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps attacks from the south and the 110th Motorized Brigade (1st Corps) from the east. In the last week the Russians have reached and occupied the town hall and the High School No. 2 (in the area north of the brick factory), as well as making advances in the “Solnechny” and “Eastern” districts (that of the high rises). The situation is unclear for the area of the high rises in the eastern part of the town: over the last two weeks there have been very harsh urban clashes in this area; very likely the Russians control most of them, although at the moment they cannot advance further west. In the north-eastern part, the Russians have arrived near the Central Hospital, which should still be in Ukrainian hands. In the southern part of the town, the Russians control most of the houses, with the exception of the south-western end of the town.

In the first half of May there had been counterattacks with some Bradleys (and according to Russian sources, with Abrams as well) of the 47th Mech Brigade - subunits of this brigade are not engaged in the town, but the 47th Brigade has never made it a secret that it’s willing to employ its vehicles to support the infantry of nearby brigades if case of need. The Ukrainians also frequently carry out counterattacks inside the town, but mainly with the aim of “extinguish the fires" and stemming Russian advances, which are in fact slow, though relentless. In April the 21st Special Purpose Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade arrived in Krasnohorivka, and in the last month the 425th Separate Assault Battalion “Skala” arrived too, in addition to the units already there (3rd Battalion of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, elements of TDF and of the Border Guards). In general, Russian progress in the town is slow, but in case of loss of the town the Ukrainians would have serious issues maintaining the area around it.

The situation in Heorhiivka is not clear at all – it’s actually one of the most “mysterious” places on the frontline, more for lack of geolocations than anything else. As far as we know at the moment, the Russians control the village up to the western end of the reservoir where the Osikova River flows. Some Russian channels in recent weeks have reported rumors of advances towards the center of the village, others even to the western part, but this finds no evidence (barring DeepState putting the center in the grey area, back in mid-May). A few Ukrainian channels have been stating that the Russians have increased the intensity of attacks in this direction. The village is defended by the 46th Airmobile Brigade (which is also active south of Krasnohorivka) and attacked by the 103rd Motorized Regiment and the 163rd Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA.

The situation is stable in Pobjeda, where counterattacks by the 33rd Mech Brigade stopped the advances by the 255th and the 242nd Motorized Regiments of the 20th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA. Last part below.

There have been Russian advances in Paraskoviivka: in the second half of May the Russians captured the eastern half of the small village, defended by the 79th Air Assault Brigade. Interestingly, it’s the 33rd Motorized Regiment of the 20th Motorized Division of the 8th CAA (previously active in Pobjeda, further north) that has made these advances. The 10th Tank Regiment of the same division should also be in the area. Presumably, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade or at least a large part of its subunits may be recovering after the battle for Novomykhailivka.

South of the Sukhi Yaly River, the Russians are trying to approach Kostyantynivka (where the Ukrainian 214th Special Battalion OPFOR has arrived), recording some small advances. The 39th Motorized Brigade of the 68th Corps, together with the 139th Separate Assault Battalion of the 29th CAA, is attacking in this area, as well as further south, in the direction of Vodiane and the Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar Road (with support from detachments of the 14th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade). In the latter direction, the Russians managed to make an advance of about 1 km last week. Other mechanized attacks in the area were repelled by the 72nd Mech Brigade.

Vuhledar sector. Nothing to write about.

Velyka Novosilka sector. At the moment, the most difficult in the entire southern area. The 394th Motorized Regiment of the 127th Motorized Division of the 5th CAA, together with the 60th Motorized Brigade of the 5th CAA, managed to capture most of Staromaiorske, which was liberated by the Ukrainians in late July 2023. Today there remains an Ukrainian presence only in the northern part of the village. Staromaiorske is defended by the 21st Brigade of the National Guard, the 128th TDF Brigade, elements of the 129th TDF Brigade and of the 1st Tank Brigade. Elements of the 11th Brigade of the National Guard recently arrived in the area from the Kherson sector.

In the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly, Urozhaine is holding better. The village is defended by the 31st Brigade of the National Guard, the 58th Motorized Brigade, elements of the Separate Presidential Brigade (3rd Mech Battalion and 20th Special Purpose Battalion) and the 762nd Guard Brigade of the State Transport Special Service. The Russians control the farms in the southern end of the village; for the time being their mechanized attacks northwards are repulsed by the Ukrainians. At least one battalion of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade is in action in Urozhaine, where units of the 36th CAA (37th Motorized Brigade and 5th Tank Brigade) are also active, supported by detachments of the 14th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade.

In any case, it’s unclear what the Russians' goal in this area is, beyond keeping Ukrainian resources engaged. Probably every Russian group of forces has to attack somewhere and try to achieve results, and the GoF “Vostok” chooses to do it here, I see no other explanation. The area has pretty much no strategic meaning for the Russians: from the current Russian forward positions inside Staromaiorske to the lines of early June 2023 near Velyka Novosilka there are still more than 8 kms, by the way.

Polohy sector. The Russians (units of the 35th CAA) recorded an advance in the dachas north of Marfopil, in the western bank of the Haichur River, in the direction of Huliaipole; as well as an advance north-west of Myrne, in the direction of Huliaipilske.

Orikhiv sector. Attacks by the 42nd Motorized Division of the 58th CAA against Robotyne continue. There should be no more Ukrainian presence in the village, which area is defended by the 65th Mech Brigade, the “Spartan” Brigade of the National Guard (subunits of which are being transferred to the Kharkiv sector) and the 141st Infantry Brigade. It seems that some elements of the 11th Brigade of the National Guard have recently arrived here as well. It is difficult to say how much of the village is actually under Russian control - most likely the southern and the western part, and the rest of the village should be a grey area, occasionally reached by Russian assault groups. The Ukrainians are now positioned in trenches just north and east of the village. The latters in particular (in the area of the hazel forest) are being attacked by the Russians very intensely, but at the moment without success.

The situation in the area east of Robotyne is stable. The 76th VDV Division should have been transferred, at least for the majority, elsewhere. According to rumors from Russian channels, in the future the same fate may befall the 7th VDV Division, at the moment still (at least in its overwhelming majority) deployed in the Orikhiv sector - although Russian rumors reported the 247th Air Assault Regiment of this division being transferred to the Polohy sector, probably for R&R (there are recent MIA notices of its servicemen in the Verbove area, though). Personally, I think the Russian goal is to eliminate at least most of what remains of the Robotyne salient and at that point transform the sector into a relatively quiet one, like Kamyanske, with the 58th CAA deputed to cover these two sectors. But if that’s the case, the Ukrainians will also be able to move several brigades elsewhere: there are still numerous brigades engaged in the Orikhiv sector.

Kamyanske sector. West of Nesteryanka, DeepState yesterday notified a Russian advance of about 2 kms along some forest belts. In this area the 19th Motorized Division of the 58th CAA is active; on the Ukrainian side the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade and some minor units. The circumstances of this advance are unclear, but it might be a readjustment of lines, which in this area are not very clear, particularly due to lack of geolocations.

Kherson sector / Dnipro River. The situation in Krynky is not entirely clear due to the recent lack of geolocations of Ukrainian positions in the village. However, Russian channels report of attacks against the Ukrainians in Krynky, and Russian artillery continues to attack Ukrainian marines on their way through the marshy islands towards Krynky, which suggests that there is still a Ukrainian presence in Krynky - the Ukrainians should be present in an area near the central part of the village as well as in the eastern periphery, where they had increased the area under their control in April. The 104th VDV Division and the 70th Motorized Division of the 18th CAA are active in operations against the Ukrainian bridgehead in Krynky. In May they were joined by elements of the 76th VDV Division (at least its 234th Air Assault Regiment), which arrived in Korsunka and is taking part in assaults against Ukrainian positions from the west. Let’s also recall that the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade is deployed near Kozachi Laheri. Probably the relocation of part of the 76th VDV Division is due to the need for recovery of the assault units of the 104th VDV Division that have been attacking Krynky for months and months, but also to a potential Russian willingness to close the bridgehead issue altogether. At the same time, the Ukrainians are scaling back the Krynky operation in a major way, with fewer and fewer resources committed to it and with elements of the Marine Corps beginning to be transferred elsewhere, such as the 36th Marine Brigade in the Kharkiv sector.

That’s all!

Yes, I had seen that, but the most rational explanation is that it’s physically impossible for the Ukrainians to be down there right now, especially after the Russians reached the area of the high rises of Krasnohorivka, which is where the Bradleys have passed through (it was the only gate in that direction, by the way, as the Russians were already both to the south-west and to the north-east of the “Eastern” District).

As early as the end of April, the Russians had reached the intersection of Radyanska Street with Heolohichna Street (not far from the Secondary School No. 2), and the “hunter’s house” just outside the town, to its north-east (north of the Lozova River); on May 9 they were geolocated along Nakhimova Street, in the north-eastern end of Krasnohorivka, south of the Lozova. On May 20, they were then geolocated just south of the high rises district (on which they partially consolidated control during the following days), and as a result, any window for a passage of Ukrainian vehicles to the south-east had been closed at that point.

According to DeepState, by May 12, the Ukrainians could no longer be in those positions (not that DS always 100% corresponds to reality). Interestingly, on May 19 DS slightly adjusted the lines to the south-east of the “Eastern” District, adding a grey area at the expense of Russian control. Presumably, this counterattack had already taken place and the news of it reached DS, to whom perhaps the situation was not entirely clear yet but who in any case made such update.

The attack is supposed to have involved several Bradleys (according to Russian sources, even Abrams, but there’s no evidence for that) and doesn’t seem to have been successful, if the intention was to cut off the Russians inside the town. My personal theory, though, is that it was not a full-fledged counterattack but rather a mission to recover the soldiers manning the trench located at the coordinates on the tweet you linked. How that went overall - I don’t know, maybe one day the Ukrainians will talk about it; what’s known from Russian sources is that a Bradley was damaged and the dismounts shelled by the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th CAA. Subsequently, two survivors were taken prisoner, right in the area of the trench we were talking about.

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5663 [the date refers to the day the video was posted]

Let’s take into account that the videos were originally posted by the official Telegram channel of the 1st Corps, and sometimes official sources can have a certain time lag in posting (although it would still be odd, since Bradleys were involved).

I had talked about that in detail yesterday but to give a very quick summary, for the moment being the Russians have virtually no progress in the Kharkiv sector, they got bogged down. They are in the process of deploying some reserves but as the current situation stands they don’t have the advantage in terms of fighting potential which would be necessary to achieve operational developments. In most of the other sectors they have tactical progress.

No, and by the way, we aren’t witnessing at the moment any more rapid, operational advances like in the Ocheretyne area back in April.