Hi! As for the Ukrainian Marine Corps, while elements of all four of its brigades are in Kherson Oblast, it’s only partly involved in the actions along the Dnipro. Most of the marine battalions are in the rear reconstituting, after this summer’s battles. Rotations along the Dnipro may be frequent but I doubt there are more than a handful of Ukrainian companies in the left bank of the Dnipro at any given time.

I have no idea whether at the beginning of October a decision was made to withdraw the 47th Mech from Robotyne and send the combat-capable elements of the brigade near Avdiivka or was it a choice made after the Russian offensive began for a lack of other options. Of course, it was strange to see them in Avdiivka. At the moment the 47th is holding the lines just west of the railway, between Stepove and the Coke Plant. It has not, in my opinion, the capabilities for a large counterattack towards Krasnahorivka and that is probably not why it was deployed to Avdiivka in first place. I don’t consider plausible an Ukrainian willingness for a full-scale counterattack right now either. The 31st Mech (or at least elements of it) was around Avdiivka even before the offensive began, after being withdrawn in the summer from the Velyka Novosilka sector. All other brigades engaged in the Orikhiv sector during the summer are still there. The 23rd Mech, on the other hand, has disappeared from the radar since July after it had been involved in the actions in the western bank of Mokri Yaly along with the 31st.

There are some brigades that already existed in 2022 that have been lost track of since early 2023 (61st and 62nd Mech, 101st Protection of the General Staff - the 115th Mech, that was among them, was deployed in Kupyansk at the beginning of the autumn). Several of those formed during 2023 haven’t been heard from since the news that they were undergoing training (13th Jager, 88th Mech, 5th Tank); the 44th Mech has yet to be deployed, the 42nd Mech has so far been marginally involved, save for a small reported fuck up in the Kreminna sector during the summer (it’s supposed to field Strykers, but they have never been seen in action in their sector). The Khartiia Brigade of the Offensive Guard has never been deployed so far (the last among those from the OG). Some TDF brigades have been refitting since early 2023. On the four infantry brigades (formerly “reserve rifle”, a new type of formation) created around June (141st, 142nd, 143rd, 144th) nothing more was heard, except that elements of the 142nd were in Avdiivka during the summer but then there were no more updates at all. Last month five (!) new mechanized brigades were created. Although Ukrainian stocks of T-64BVs and BMP-1s seem deeper than thought and they continue to reactivate vehicles from depots, the question remains as to how they are going to equip these brigades. Probably a mix of Soviet gear and Leopard 1A5s and MRAPs/M113s. Also they are going to need new 155mm guns in the future (which caliber’s shells will have the largest increase in production). Several rifle battalions were created too during the summer. All other existing brigades IIRC have a known sector of deployment.

When I know more about the tactical situation around Avdiivka (and else) I will try to post an update. In any case I agree that, speaking of reserves, the Russian situation is better than the Ukrainian one.