While we are waiting to see how things will evolve in the Tokmak direction, fierce clashes are ongoing as we speak in the Svatove sector, specifically in the heights between Novojehorivka and Serhiivka.
DeepState also mentioned that during this afternoon. https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17495
The 2nd Army of the Central Military District is on the offensive: the 15th Motorized Brigade is attacking from Raihorodka and the 21st Motorized Brigade from Kovalivka. These are the same directions where there had been the two so-called “breakthroughs” (later contained) on the Zherebets in the second half of July - back then there had been a great participation by elements of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st GTA, along with these two brigades.
As I had read earlier, a Russian tank battalion would be involved in the actions, supporting the motorized infantry, despite the area being hilly and forested. Ukrainians report 6 Russian tanks destroyed in this area today. Ukraine Weapons Tracker posted this image a little while ago, I wouldn’t be surprised that this is indeed the area in question.
This for the Ukrainians was the “junction area”, until late July, between the 66th Mech Brigade and the new 32nd Mech Brigade. Ukraine has then sent reinforcements to increase force density in the area: now the brigades employed in the fighting are the 68th Jager Brigade (transferred from Velyka Novosilka), the newly formed 43rd Mech Brigade (it’s the first “tour of duty” for this brigade, it arrived there during mid August - DeepState reports that it’s fighting well) and probably a battalion of paratroopers from the 25th Airborne Brigade.
In any case, the return to the offensive by the Russians in the area has occurred over the past week. It’s now the hottest area between Kupyansk and Kreminna. As of now, no breakthrough is reported. But let’s remember that a look at what’s going on there should always be taken though, because if the Russians ever reach the watershed between the Oskil and Zherebets (6 km from where the fighting is going on), it could be a problem for the entire northeastern front. Their goal is to reach the line between Pershotravneve and Cherneshchyna, and from there they would be in a very good topographical position to target Borova in a potential second attack. At that point, moreover, the Ukrainians' “operational rear” would also be a bit too short, with the Oskil River behind them.
The Kupyansk sector is stable - in fact, the Ukrainians would have counterattacked and recovered territory in the forest south of Lyman Pershyi. At the same time, the regiments of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st GTA would be being deployed around Yahidne, potentially to support the actions of the 2nd Motorized Division in that area.
In total, the Western Military District (deployed between Kupyansk and Svatove, except for the 144th Motorized Division which is in Kreminna) can count, according to reports of the Ukrainian military intelligence, on 51 thousand personnel, 495 tanks, 441 AFVs, 403 artillery guns of ≥100mm caliber, 128 MLRS. To this we have to add the (smaller) Central Military District, which is active between Svatove and the Serebrianka Forest in Kreminna. The VDV since June has gone from having five active regiments in the Kreminna sector to only one due to redeployments in Bakhmut and lately in the Orikhiv sector. This could mean less pressure in Kreminna and the possibility of lateral redeployments for the Ukrainians, which in case of need in Svatove and Kupyansk might no longer need to bring their strategic reserves or brigades from e.g. the South. For instance, there may be indications that the 21st Mech Brigade (or at least elements) were sent to the Kupyansk sector from Kreminna. The Russians in the coming weeks will most likely try to keep pressing in these sectors to try to divert as many Ukrainian resources as possible.
To conclude, in the northeastern front for the past 2 months the situation has pretty much been almost the same: nothing too worrisome, for the moment, but it’s always better not to underestimate potential dangers.