A large Ukrainian Telegram channel wrote about the reason, according to their informations, for the Russian breakthrough in the area of the former restaurant “Tsarska Ohota”. Basically, in the area just south of the Avdiivka-Yasynuvata railway (near the Skotovata ditch), the Russians allegedly discovered a “pipe” (I guess a sewer pipe?), wide 80 centimeters in diameter and over 2 kilometers long, which comes out at the beginning of the private sector near Soborna Street. 150 Russian assault troops reportedly passed through this pipe and popped up near the houses on Soborna, Sportyvna and Chernyshevskoho Streets, infiltrated into them and surprised the Ukrainian positions in Tsarska Ohota from behind. While this sounds like something at the peak of the non-credibility, it may indeed explain the fall of Tsarska Ohota, towards which there had been zero progress since October despite constant attacks, with the Russians, at the end of that month, even having to retreat from the flyover over the railroad they had occupied in the very first days of the offensive.

https://t.me/operatyvnii/17683

At the moment it looks like not only have the Russians captured the former restaurant, but they are also in the houses along the three streets listed above. The situation is fluid and the Ukrainians could have counterattacked - I think only from the next days we will know what the situation is like in the southern part of the city. The Russian units involved seem to be the Assault and Reconnaissance Brigade “Veterans”, former PMC made up of skilled people compared to the average: they are the same perpetrators of the breakthrough of Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone (known as “Promka”) in November, and where as well there had been an instance of a tunnel (another sewer pipe?) - which they had filled with explosives and detonated in the point below the Ukrainian positions. They are supported by elements of the 55th Mountain Brigade of the 41st Army and of the 1st Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps, as well as the BARS-11 detachment, which according to Ukrainian sources became a battalion of the Assault and Reconnaissance Brigade “Convoy”, another former PMC.

Once the positions were occupied, the Russians also sent mechanized reinforcements through the road which passes just to the side of Tsarska Ohota and that then becomes Soborna Street, in the direction of the city’s private sector, but it appears that the Ukrainians were able to neutralize the column: the Russians lost three tanks and two BMP-2s there. In contrast, the area between the former restaurant and the small quarry west of the vineyard should still be controlled by the Ukrainians. The units active in the southern part of the city should be, as far as I know, the 1st and 2nd Mechanized Battalions of the 110th Mechanized Brigade, the 6th Separate Rifle Battalion and the “Kyiv” Police Regiment.

Rumors swirled this afternoon about the fall of the former anti-aircraft missile regiment base, known as “Zenith”, north-west of Spartak and beyond the unfinished Donetsk ring road. The evidence would be a video depicting stormtroopers from the 80th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division (41st Army, CMD) with a handful of Ukrainian POWs from the Separate Presidential Brigade. Russian sources have geolocated it in the area of the former base, but as far as I have seen, the geolocation is… a bit dubious. We’ll see. This is the first time, as far as I know, that this regiment is mentioned as being present in Avdiivka - it would be the second regiment of the division deployed in the sector, after the 239th Tank Regiment active in the north-east flank of Avdiivka. At the moment we have no indications to confirm or deny the fall of Zenith. The problem is that the viability of supplies to Ukrainian positions in that area has deteriorated considerably with the loss of Tsarska Ohota and particularly of the forested area west of it. There is no news about “Cheburashka” (i.e. the junction between T-05-05 Road and the ring road), another Ukrainian stronghold, just north-east of the former military base.

In recent days there has also been activity in the “Promka” area. The “Pyatnashka” Battalion (an “elite” unit of the 1st Corps), with support from elements of the 10th Tank Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps and the 87th Motorized Regiment of the 1st Corps, has been assaulting the Ukrainian trenches in the forested area north-west of the intersection of Yasynovskyi Lane with the H20 Road. These positions are instrumental in defending both the Donetsk Filtration Station and the high ground still in Ukrainian hands to the south-east of the Kamianka creek’s valley. The attack appears to have been largely unsuccessful, and the deputy commander of “Pyatnashka” Battalion fell in action.

I partially agree: the Ukrainians had massively reinforced the flanks, particularly the north-east one, while the force density inside the city was considerably lower. However, I would not minimize the relevance of an infiltration through the pipe, if it was confirmed. It may indeed have caught the Ukrainians by surprise and the serious thing is if anything how the pipe was not reported and closed.

Can you expand on this a bit? The closest I’ve seen to serious discussion on this was andrewperpetua’s usual vagueposting.

You can see the geolocation here: https://t.me/militarysummary/8421

Which, I think, was the source for Andrew Perpetua’s claim after all. I’m not a geolocation expert so I don’t know what to say.

Here is the full original video instead: https://t.me/dva_majors/33184

Edit for update: the Ukrainian military blogger Bohdan Miroshnikov this evening claimed that the “Zenith” was “partly lost” but the situation is still very much fluid. https://t.me/myro_shnykov/4935

Thanks!

It depends on the actual extent of their penetration. We shall see.

Who was that Pyatnsahka elite battlalion commander? What rank and is he even in the Russian army or is he from a DPR unit?

The deputy commander. Vladimir Rodionovich Kharabua. From Abkhazia, just like the commander of the battalion, which was created and led by people from Abkhazia. It was formerly called the “international brigade” of the DPR Army as it was the unit that hosted foreign volunteers. In any case it was and it is made up largely of Russian volunteers. Today it is an assault battalion of the 1st Corps, which is integrated into the Russian Army and so are its members. Kharabua was a company commander and therefore, probably, a captain.