I assumed that the original and long-term proposal by Rheinmetall (albeit difficult and possibly to be developed after the war), with an investment of 200 million euros for the plant, was for the production of KF51, with the latter being the spearhead MBT of post-war Westernized Ukraine; now this seems to be the initial phase of the project and will start by cooperating with Ukroboronprom in Transcarpathia to refurbish Fuchs from German stock.

We must take into account the context in first place: Ariete was a tank developed in late 1980s to compete with Soviet T-72Bs and Yugoslav M-84s and be comparable to Leopard 2A4. On a technical level it may have some flaws but it was nevertheless a good tank by the standards of the time. It was born unlucky because as u/Gecktron said the 1990s marked a huge reduction in the Italian Army’s tank fleet and a change in doctrine. 40 years ago the Italian Army had 1800 MBTs (Leopard 1A2, M60A1, M47) and 4000 M113s. Already in the 1980s, Centauro was developed and introduced with the aim to replace the M47s the motorized brigades in the Southern Italy still fielded. Then after the end of the Cold War almost the entirety of the armoured and mechanized brigades garrisoned in Northern Italy were disbanded, or reformed as cavalry or air assault brigades as the focus moved towards light and specialized infantry, and in parallel with the introduction of the Centauro the Army’s requirement for tanks collapsed.

Ariete was introduced in the early 2000s, years later than planned. Due to cuts and the poor regard of the armoured component it had never received upgrades before now. Of the original 7/800 units planned only 200 were built, and it never found a market abroad. As I mentioned above, the Army since the 1990s has begun to look to the French model of wheeled vehicles (although not up to French extreme). Now the majority of mechanized brigades rely on a wheeled-only basis and don’t have a tank battalion but a cavalry one with Centauro, which is also included in mountain or paratroopers brigades, and mechanized units have Freccia wheeled IFVs and Iveco LMVs. Overseas deployments in the theaters of operations this century have almost entirely relied on wheeled vehicles. Italy has developed excellent know-how in the field of wheeled vehicles but has lost the production lines of tracked ones, both the Ariete and the Dardo for 20 years. In recent years and especially after the invasion of Ukraine it was decided that a fourth tank regiment will be reactivated and the Army’s requirements to be lifted from 200 to 250. As there are not enough Arietes and the production line closed, the Army is opting to acquire the Leopard 2A8, almost certainly produced domestically under license. The acquisition of about 600 tracked IFVs (probably Lynx) is also being considered, as tracked vehicles are making a comeback in doctrine and therefore investments will have to be made to improve capabilities in this regard.

Interesting - it appears that Slovenian M-55s originally provided to the 47th Brigade that never appeared on the frontline were donated to the 67th Brigade. Despite the fact that the 67th had a tank battalion in its order of battle I am not aware that they had ever received tanks before. The photo was posted by Alina Mykhailova, i.e. Dmytro Kotsiubailo’s fiancée before he, better known as Da Vinci, died in action near Bakhmut in March (the 67th Brigade was very active in covering the northern flank of the city west of Khromove together with the 3rd Battalion of the 92nd Brigade, and they did so extremely bravely, you may remember them for this famous footage).

Alina is sort of the Brigade’s attaché and follows it around. The entire 67th seems to be deployed in Kreminna nowadays, including “Da Vinci” Battalion, which some sources located in the Velyka Novosilka sector during June. Side note, Ukraine in recent weeks has greatly reinforced the sector between Kreminna and Svatove: in addition to the 25th and 95th Brigades fighting there for many months along with quite a lot of National Guard units (including brigades from the Offensive Guard), the 58th Brigade was deployed in April and now the 63rd and 67th as well; among the new ones there are the 42nd, the 21st (perhaps) and the 32nd. This last brigade is a bit of a puzzle. It had been proven to be training with Bradleys. It has now been geolocated near Svatove, giving support to the excellent 92nd Brigade. Last month some pro-Russian pages had posted a photo with the 32nd Brigade patch near a fallen Ukrainian reporting it was in the Zaporizhzhia region but their presence there was never confirmed. For David Axe they have now been equipped with T-64BVs and M113s, thus becoming a kind of second-class formation for mostly defensive roles.

Let’s get to the point: what about the 47th Brigade’s tank unit? The consensus has always been that the Leopard 2A6s deployed between Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne were provided by the 33rd Brigade, which is thought of fielding both Leo 2A4 and 2A6. I did some digging and found out the obituary of a Ukrainian tank platoon commander of the 33rd Brigade, born in 2002, died in June 8. The ownership of Leopard 2A4s by this brigade had been confirmed. However, I wonder if it’s possible that therefore 3 Leopards were under the command of such a young officer when the average age of tank crews is generally quite high. Maybe it is, I have no idea honestly. In any case, the only geolocated Leopard 2A4 loss shows it near Novopokrovka, in the same sector but not in the direction of the 47th Brigade’s attack.

In the area between Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne, in addition to Leopard 2A6s and Bradleys, losses of T-72M1s and T-64BVs have been recorded. The former are supposed to be from the 65th Brigade. The latter, I have no idea. If anyone has suggestions on the subject or else please tell us. In any case, especially at this stage, mixing Soviet tanks of different types in the same tank battalion cannot be ruled out.

The point is that I don’t believe the 47th gave up its M-55s in favor of T-64/72s. This is my speculation, but I find more likely they may have done so for a squadron of Leopard 2A6s, formally forming the “pureblood NATO brigade.” Let’s keep in mind that for David Axe, Leopard 2R mineclearing vehicles are owned by the 47th Brigade. My personal theory is that the actions in that area are almost exclusively the work of the 47th Brigade, with support from the 65th. Hence contradicting the consensus of a coordinated attack between the 47th and the 33rd Brigade, which would be active about ten kilometers further northeast. The alternative would be that the 47th was left without a tank unit but I consider this an unlikely hypothesis.

Let’s take into account that originally, before the leaks, it was said that the Leopard 2A5/6s were intended for a single tank battalion, I had read of the 1st Tank Brigade. The figure was perfect: 31, a standard Ukrainian tank battalion (18 Germany + 3 Portugal + 10 Sweden). In general, I would not take the leaks by the book because it seems that some equipment has been shuffled since then. For example the 21st Brigade which now is supposed to be the “Swedish brigade” with CV90s and maybe Strv 122s (Swedish Leopard 2A5) according to the leaks had T-64s and no modern IFVs. I recall it had been confirmed that Leopard 2A4s were also to equip a battalion of the 4th Tank Brigade. In any case, the Leopard 2A5/6s were instead split between different units.

The whole thing opens up another very important question, if it were confirmed that the 47th Brigade in addition to fielding 3 mechanized battalions equipped with a hundred Bradleys in total also has an oversized company of Leopard 2A6s… Why did this happen? I have full respect for this brigade, but it feels like that a little too much hype was done by Markus before he went into full cry baby mode yesterday against Shalamaha and for some reason they would have bewitched the Ukrainian command into giving up all the new modern shiny toys to them. Which would have been better divided among several brigades, including the veteran ones. Of course this is my theory, I may be wrong and I am curious to see whether or not it will be confirmed by the facts.

The 67th is a brigade made up by highly motivate volunteers, but it’s poorly armored. I see it doing well in Kreminna, in a defensive and forested setting. The 58th is a veteran and competent brigade, was deployed to Bakhmut in the last months of 2022, replenished losses in earlier months of this year, and was deployed to the sector. The 63rd had been deployed, or at least elements, to Chasiv Yar for a few weeks in February/March if I recall correctly. It’s a bit of a quintessential reserve brigade. The 42nd and 32nd are new brigades but I think more suited for defensive purposes (although the former seems to have Strykers!), the 21st is supposed to be the only brigade equipped with great assets to be deployed in the area. Sending reinforcements to Kreminna/Svatove in any case was necessary, given how many Russians are in that area. I think the Ukrainian strategic reserves for the counteroffensive in the South are the theoretically elite 82nd and 116/117/118th Brigades. And given the marines grouping also the 38th Brigade when it will be ready.

D/LPR forces were about 45k in 2021, I think their numbers in 2022 were considerably greater given the total mobilization in those territories. At the same time part of the 1+ million figure of the Armed Forces includes sailors, airmen, railway troops, etc. That said they can always draft more men.

However, one has to consider that there are wounded who remain disabled for life, wounded who recover after a few months, others who return to the battlefield after little treatment. In general a relevant percentage of the wounded are redeployed. For this reason, irrecoverable losses are less than the sum of KIAs+WIAs.

In theory it was indeed. According to David Axe, the 82nd Brigade consists of just 2000 men. Somewhat I doubt they have 4 standard-sized mechanized battalions as it seems from the leaks. For the leaks however one battalion was supposed to field Marders as well (it will be curious to know which brigades will receive them - in theory with the amount being delivered they are going to equip a couple of battalions with them, and now another 40 have been pledged). The 42nd Brigade has also been seen with Strykers (I remember they had posted a picture of the Stryker with Audi logo, lol), but we will only get confirmations in the future. It could be disproved as with the 32nd Brigade’s Bradleys.

I had read last month that Rheinmetall would send another 20 Marders from its stocks during this summer. That was before the German government announced 40 more Marders this week. In any case, I think that in the medium to long term the US will have to send quite a few more Bradleys. It’s the only modern and actual IFV available in serious quantities. At least it doesn’t have the DU armour and there aren’t the production bottlenecks to remove it like with the Abrams. Should the war continue for a longer time, however, I think a large number of the latter is needed as well. Maybe arrangements could be made with Morocco (the most feasible country among Abrams Arab users), and Australia which will receive the new Abrams could send the old ones.

For the last part: totally agree. We usually know which units have a certain gear and/or where the gear is deployed either because some Telegram channel or Facebook page posts photos of equipment during training or in the rear, or via geolocations of the losses.