Seems like the battalion of M1A1 Abrams Ukraine received has entered service in a tank brigade, judging by the emblem on the buckle. Potentially in the new one (the 5th), if it’s confirmed that it was being created.

https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/7042

Let’s recall that Ukrainian tank brigades do not operate as stand-alone formations but generally provide their battalions as a armored reinforcement to an UAF grouping in a given sector.

Time to make a new update about the situation in Avdiivka, using the new infos that the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets posted.

First of all, by now almost the entire Central Military District is around Avdiivka. In the last days the 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division (41st Army, CMD) has been deployed in Korsun, a village around 10 kilometers south of Horlivka. It would be considerably under-equipped, however: 1600 men, 32 tanks, 20 IFVs and 13 howitzers. Another tank regiment of the 90th Division, currently unnamed, is reported to be around Avdiivka too. It could therefore be either the 6th or the 80th. I find it likely that the T-80BVMs deployed in October in the offensive against Avdiivka may belong to the 90th Division, the only formation (according to the excellent Naalsio) in the CMD that fields T-80BVMs. The 80th and the 239th Regiments also field several T-90Ms among their ranks.

The 2nd Army of the CMD is entirely in the northern flank of Avdiivka. Part of the 41st Army of the CMD is in the southern one and they are also supported by Spetsnaz GRU detachments attached to these armies.

The 114th Motorized Brigade (1st Corps, 8th Army, SMD) and the 15th Motorized Brigade (2nd Army) are attacking in the direction of Stepove. They would have been successful in capturing a Ukrainian platoon-stronghold along the forest immediately west of the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway, which runs parallel to the tracks. The Russians, according to DeepState, also managed to break through the Ocheretyne-Horlivka railway by capturing some tree lines and advancing about 1 km towards Novokalynove during the last week.

Further south, in the area of the Coke Plant, units of the 132nd Motorized Brigade (1st Corps) and of the 21st Motorized Brigade (2nd Army) are in action. There is a large presence of convicts from Storm Z detachments in this area and they are also supported by the 109th Rifle Regiment (1st Corps) and other units of the mobilization reserve of this corps. They would have succeeded in taking some positions in the forest just west of the railroad. Elements of the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade (at least a mechanized battalion supported by the tank company) are active in this area. In addition to the initial garrison of Avdiivka, the Ukrainians deployed the 31st Mech Brigade (which actually was in the area even before the offensive began), a battalion of the 1st Tank Brigade and additional battalions of the Presidential Brigade in the northern flank and a battalion of the 56th Motorized Brigade in the southern flank - these are the Ukrainian units that have arrived so far as reinforcements.

From Kamyanka, units of the 21st Motorized Brigade are attacking towards the sand quarry (i.e. the large lake above the city of Avdiivka), without success. From Kruta Balka units of the 114th Motorized Brigade made small advances in the area of the “Third Pond” (the first, from the north, among the small lakes to the north-east of the Donetsk Filtration Station, a Ukrainian stronghold east of the H20 Highway).

In the rear there should also be the 30th Motorized Brigade (2nd Army), i.e. probably the formation deputed to exploit any breakthroughs of the Ukrainian lines in the Stepove/Berdychi direction.

In the area near Kashtanove there would be elements of the 255th Motorized Regiment of the 20th Motorized Division (8th Army, SMD), brought there from the area south of Marinka. They reportedly made slight advances north of Yasynovskyi Lane (for any problems with locating these places - just ask me).

The industrial area to the west of the junction of the H20 Highway with the unfinished Donetsk’s ring road is a very important Ukrainian stronghold, encompassing positions as Promka (an industrial building) already known during the years before 2022, and the vineyards just to the south of this area, firmly in Ukrainian hands. To the west there’s the former restaurant “Tsarska Ohota”, another stronghold. The 1st Motorized Brigade (1st Corps), supported by elements of the 55th Mountain Brigade (41 Army, CMD), is attacking in this area. Fighting is ongoing but no Russian successes are recorded. Instead, in late October the Russians reportedly withdrew from the overpass on the Avdiivka-Yasynuvata railway, which they had captured during the second week of the offensive. The former base of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (Zenith) north-west of Spartak, a very important Ukrainian stronghold, is firmly in UAF hands.

The bulk of the 55th Mountain Brigade, made up largely of Tuvans, is active in the area around Opytne. In recent weeks there has been an increase in obituaries of soldiers from Tuva. This small Siberian republic has, according to Mediazona’s datas, the worst rate of confirmed KIAs relative to population (about 130 per 100k residents), even worse than Buryatia’s. This brigade is supported by other units of the 1st Motorized Brigade. In late October they regained the quarry between Vodyane and Opytne, which had been liberated by the Ukrainians during the actions of September. From here the Russians tried to advance north-east, i.e. towards the 9th District (a high-rises neighborhood of Avdiivka), without success. From Vodyane the 9th “Marine” Brigade of the 1st Corps is attacking towards Tonenke and Pervomaiske, without success, except for a slight advance along the dachas of the second settlement, in late October. In any case, the Russians control some positions along a part of the last “latitudinal” tree line before Sjeverne and Tonenke, which they captured in the first week of the offensive. Ukrainian sources never mentioned it, but from the obituaries I found indications that the 74th Motorized Brigade (41st Army) may be in the rear of the southern flank of Avdiivka, probably aiming to enter the field in case of further advances towards Sjeverne/Tonenke. No idea where the 35th Motorized Brigade (41st Army) is. Also, in the rear of the southern flank there are many smaller units of 1st Corps and the 6th Motorized Division of 3rd Corps.

South of Avdiivka there are constant attacks with the aim of annoying the Ukrainians. The 5th Motorized Brigade (1st Corps) carried out attacks in the fields between Krasnohorivka (the one south of Avdiivka) and Marinka, without success. In Marinka, the 103rd Motorized Regiment (150th Motorized Division, 8th Army) continued to push but as usual, without progress. Still further south, the 39th Motorized Brigade (68th Corps, EMD) continues to press towards Novomykhailivka, but without success over the past two weeks, it seems. In the recent days elements of the 29th Army (EMD) have also moved to attack to the east of Mykilske in the Vuhledar sector, advancing a few hundred meters with heavy losses.

As for my thoughts on Avdiivka, I had discussed them here. At the moment it’s known that the Russians are using Wagner-style techniques, with assaults by infantry squads. Their goal is to advance as far as possible along the tree lines and consolidate the new positions, in anticipation of a third major armored/mechanized push that the Ukrainians are expecting, using the recently arrived units of the CMD. This is a very bloody strategy for the Russians but they seem willing to tolerate the human and material costs required for such attacks. This strategy, causing very high attrition, also requires continually bringing in new reserves, which they seem to be doing. The Ukrainians are holding out well, but the Russians' intention to close the Avdiivka affair whatever the cost seems clear to everyone. The taking of positions west of the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railroad by the Russians is a bad sign, but the question is whether they will be able to bring mechanized units over the railroad, and not just assault squads.

Small focus on other sectors now. The transfer firstly of almost all VDV units deployed there and now of formations of the CMD has weakened tremendously the Kreminna sector, which is now somewhat quiet for the Ukrainians. The Russian grouping in the sector is now made up of the 144th Motorized Division (20th Army, WMD), the new 164th Motorized Brigade of the 25th Army (CMD, I believe) and part of the 331st VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division), supported by some BARS and Storm Z detachments. The Ukrainians are reinforcing their grouping in Kupyansk, which in the last week has seen new Russian efforts (with heavy casualties for the latters), with increased involvement by elements of the 1st Tank Army of the WMD (specifically, of the 2nd Motorized Division). They managed to advance as far as around 2 kms, attacking from Pershotravneve. In the area are there are also the 47th Tank Division (1st Tank Army) and the bulk of the 11th Corps (WMD), which have received reinforcements over the past month, while the 6th Army (WMD) continues to press towards Synkivka. The Ukrainian grouping in Kupyansk recently has been reinforced by the 32nd Mech Brigade (from Svatove), looks like the whole of the 21st Mech Brigade too; a battalion each of the 100th and 103rd TDF Brigades (from, respectively, Kreminna and Svatove), a battalion of the 54th Mech Brigade from the Siversk salient and a battalion of the 57th Motorized Brigade from the northern flank of Bakhmut; a battalion of the 1st Tank Brigade too. The Ukrainian grouping became very large, although largely as a result of lateral redeployments from Svatove and especially Kreminna, due to a Russian weakening in these sectors.

In the Orikhiv sector, the 47th Mech Brigade has been replaced by the 33rd Mech Brigade, which had been inactive for months. They have been able to advance 1 km to the west of Robotyne, warding off the danger of Russian counterattacks towards the settlement. In the attacks they lost five Leopard 2A4s during late October. In any case, the area is very difficult, as the bulk of the 76th VDV Division is deployed west of Robotyne. Several units of the battered 42nd Motorized Division (58th Army, SMD - specifically, several battalions of the 71st and 291st Motorized Regiments) which covers the south-western flank of the Robotyne salient reportedly have been brought to the rear for recovery because of their losses. The losses of the 70th Motorized Regiment of the same division are also huge; on the Russian Telegram channel “Poisk in UA” there are numerous video appeals from the wives, mothers or daughters of soldiers of this regiment who complain that they heard from fellow soldiers about the death of their beloved one but the regimental command refuses to confirm this. Wholesale transfers are also taking place: the relatives of a Russian soldier (fallen near Novoprokopivka) from the 132nd Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps (covering the quietish area around Horlivka) were shocked to learn that the soldier’s unit had been embedded in the 70th Regiment. Also, the 71st Regiment received reinforcements from the 3rd Corps. These units reportedly have been replaced by the 136th Motorized Brigade, by now the only formation of the 58th Army still fairly fresh, brought here in late October from the rear of the Velyka Novosilka sector. Elements of this brigade have attempted counterattacks from Novoprokopivka towards Robotyne but to no avail. The 1441st Regiment of the Territorial Forces, attached to the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, would have been transferred to Kherson (where the latter had also been sent) to recover losses.

Things in recent weeks have become more interesting along the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast… As I often say, I believe plans of large-scale mechanized crossings to be just a dream, but the Ukrainians are doing the best the reality allows them to do. The bulk of the Ukrainian Marine Corps has been concentrated along the Dnipro and is leading the amphibious actions. The Ukrainians have three stable “bridgeheads” (infantry’s bridgeheads, supplied by small boats) across the Dnipro: under the Antonovskiy road bridge, under the Antonovskiy railroad bridge, and in the area near Krynky. The latter is very important to highlight as the Ukrainians were able to occupy positions beyond the Konka River and not just beyond the Dnipro (the Konka is a parallel branch of the Dnipro; between the two rivers there are marshy islands that are generally no-man’s land). The Ukrainians hold part of the settlement of Krynky and have cut the road from Korsuna to Kozachi Laheri. Despite their large numerical advantage, the poor road network is weighing heavily on the Russians' abilities to counterattack (worsened by the fact that it appears that the bulk of the armored vehicles in the sector are wheeled ones). The “Birds of Madyar” drone unit (attached to the 59th Motorized Brigade, employed in the southern flank of Avdiivka) was moved to Kherson to support the actions of the marines. They slaughtered quite a lot of Russian BTR-82s around Krynky. The Russians in the Krynky area brought forward the 26th Motorized Regiment of the 70th Motorized Division and the newly-deployed 144th Motorized Brigade, both part of the new 18th Army (SMD), supported by a couple of Storm Z detachments. Ukrainian artillery would be reaping major losses in the Russian ranks. The 177th Naval Infantry Regiment was brought near the area of the railway bridge (from the Polohy sector), and in the same area there are the few elements of the 7th VDV Division not deployed in the Orikhiv sector (i.e. the 171st Separate Air Assault Battalion, the 162nd Recon Battalion, and the 104th Tank Battalion). They haven’t recorded any success in dislodging the Ukrainians from under the bridge, however. The fact that the Russians are being forced to bring reinforcements to Kherson (where their grouping is already large) and they are suffering losses in the face of a limited UAF commitment, is certainly a win-win situation for Ukraine…

The Italian Army should also acquire 140 recovery / bridge-layer / pioneer vehicles based on the Leopard 2 in additions to 133 Leopard 2A8s. 180 hulls doesn’t seem like a lot, I wonder if a part of the Army’s requirements will be entirely made in Germany?

Until the first half of last month elements of the 90th Tank Division were definitely still in Kreminna, particularly the 228th Motorized Regiment in the Serebrianka Forest. I haven’t heard any new updates, so I don’t know if it’s still in the sector or is being prepared to be moved to Avdiivka with the rest of the division. In theory the deployment of the rest of the new 25th Army should partially make up for the Russian weakening in the area, but it remains to be seen whether it will be fully deployed before the end of the year. The new 11th Tank Brigade could be the formation replacing the 90th Tank Division.

Ukraine simply takes advantage of this to carry out lateral redeployments from Kreminna, since I doubt there’s the capability for an offensive operation in the area. For example, recently, two public protection brigades of the National Guard were transferred from Kreminna to the Velyka Novosilka sector.

Anyway, although the official numbers from the Russian Ministry of Defense apparently include renewed contracts, it really seems that the number of new contract soldiers is considerable and at the moment there is no need for a new major mobilization wave.

Thank you!

That’s the number I had read in an article. There’s a need to upgrade the whole fleet of such vehicles because at the moment the Italian Army, for these needs, relies on vehicles based on the Leopard 1, from the early 1980s, as the Ariete’s hulls have never been used for ARVs etc.

There were actually plans for 300 support vehicles based on the Ariete. But then you know, a certain wall fell…