Third and final (long) tactical analysis of the frontlines in Ukraine and their order of battle. Here’s the second analysis. Today we will talk about the frontline from Vuhledar to the mouth of the Dnipro in Kherson. I suggest having a map under eye while reading (such as DeepState or Andrew Perpetua’s).

In the second analysis we had talked about how, since the beginning of this month, there has been a large Russian offensive going on against Novomykhailivka, with advances between 1 and 1,5 km, which has been overshadowed by the offensive against Avdiivka. Recently the Russian 39th Motorized Brigade (68th Corps, EMD) reportedly recorded successes towards this village, attacking from Slavne. The 68th Corps has been reinforced with battalions from the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division and several Storm Z detachments (which is usually a sign of upcoming Russian offensive actions). The Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade, which covers from just above Marinka down to that “corner” that the frontline forms, is currently containing further Russian advances.

According to the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets, recently the Russian 30th Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army of the Central Military District may have arrived in Volnovakha, where it’s preparing for potential offensive actions in the Vuhledar sector. Indeed, the Russians have not given up trying to drive the Ukrainians away from there. Primarily because the Ukrainians are too close to the Donetsk-Volnovakha-Melitopol railway line that the Russians are reactivating.

From Volodymyrivka the responsibility of the 29th Army (EMD) begins, covering the Vuhledar sector. From Volodymyrivka up to Vasylivka (the first Russian-controlled town along the Dnipro) 100k Russians would be deployed. The 36th Motorized Brigade and 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (which has been attached to the 29th Army since the Kyiv campaign) are deployed in the Vuhledar sector, supported by the 14th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade and reinforced by the 116th Rifle Regiment and part of the 110th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps. Elements of the 1st and 2nd Corps (the former D/LPR Armies) are deployed along the southern front to reinforce the Russian armies.

The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is often associated (along with the 40th Brigade) with the Vuhledar fiasco, but in my opinion their responsibilities are overstated. Let’s have a brief recap of Vuhledar. In mid-March 2022 elements of the 42nd Motorized Division (58th Army, SMD) captured Pavlivka. In late June of that year the Ukrainian 53rd Mech Brigade launched a counterattack that liberated the settlement and advanced several kilometers towards Yehorivka. In late October the Russians launched their “first offensive” for Vuhledar, which featured the brigades of the Pacific Fleet (155th and 40th). These managed to retake Pavlivka (albeit at a major cost in casualties), but were then stopped on the banks of the Kashlahach River. In late January the “second offensive” was then launched, with the goal of taking Vuhledar. This was much larger and involved the 29th Army, 3rd Corps and, partly, the 36th Army. The Russians attacked mainly from their bridgehead on the Kashlahach River in Mykilske towards Vuhledar and, as we know, were repulsed with very high losses. The marines were only a part of the Russian forces engaged in the second offensive, they certainly did their share of fuck-ups and had further losses but also recorded the only small successes of the operation, which were ruined later by the douchery of other units. The 72nd Motorized Brigade of the 3rd Corps gave its worst (as it usually does), with its “Alga” Battalion getting wiped out. The famous video of the column of Russian armored vehicles driving into a minefield one after another shows an action of the 36th Motorized Brigade (29th Army). Marines of the 155th managed to capture some positions in the dachas south of Vuhledar, that were lost in the following weeks when these positions were transferred to the 37th Motorized Brigade (36th Army). According to Mediazona, an independent Russian media outlet that tracks confirmed fatalities, the marines had higher losses during the first offensive than during the second, in fact. Honorable mention to the Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which together with the 68th Jager Brigade managed to repel, twice, an offensive launched by far larger forces.

The Vuhledar sector is held by the Ukrainian 72nd Mech Brigade. During August they had some small advances towards Shevchenko, but otherwise the frontlines are stable. There are relevant artillery and counter-battery actions. During the months prior to the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive it was debated that this sector could have been the main direction, but evidently this was not the case and the Ukrainians never sent reinforcements in this direction.

Just east of Shevchenko, the Velyka Novosilka sector begins, where the 36th Army covers up to the Mokri Yaly River. The area between Shevchenko and Novodonetske, with its pivot in Novomaiorske, is held by the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (attached to the 36th Army). Potential Russian offensive actions could be aimed at the area west of Vuhledar; in recent days the 40th Brigade reportedly attempted to attack from Shevchenko towards the T0509 Highway but was repulsed. In any case, this brigade is one of the Russian formations with the best perfomance during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. It successfully managed to stop Ukrainian attacks against Novodonetske and Novomaiorske. In mid-September there was a Ukrainian attack towards Novomaiorske, the largest against this village since the beginning of the counteroffensive, by the 137th Battalion of the 35th Marine Brigade. This attack failed with major losses. The Ukrainians had succeeded in gaining some positions south of the Shaitanka River and also were able to seize the first houses of the settlement, but they were subsequently pushed back, losing, to my knowledge, the positions south of the river. They were pushed back by the 40th Brigade with the support of elements of the 14th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade and the “Cascade” Battalion of the 1st Corps as well by the fire of the artillery brigades of the 36th and 29th Armies. “Voin_dv” Telegram channel praised the 40th Brigade because according to them it would boast three things: decent and proactive officers; communications based on numerous digital radios; good coordination with neighboring units. None of these things is the standard in the Russian Army, indeed - particularly the third. It’s explained how in this brigade even company commanders are allowed to call in artillery support from artillery brigades, something that usually has to be requested by the brigade commander or at a least by battalion commanders. The latters are praised as very active and free to undertake their own decisions without the approval of the Colonel in charge of the formation. The Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade had arrived in the Velyka Novosilka sector during mid-June (along with colleagues from the 36th Marine Brigade), from Avdiivka, to support the Ukrainian offensive in this sector and during the summer had performed well.

The marines of the 40th Brigade were also able to defend Novodonetske from Ukrainian attempts to liberate the village, almost all of them by the new 37th Marine Brigade. Personally, Novodonetske was a great disappointment as I expected it to be liberated already a few months ago. The Ukrainians in this case have positions south of the Shaitanka and were able to advance into the fields and tree lines west of the village, but were unable to cut the road to Kermenchyk. The latter village is situated in the hills overlooking Novodonetske and Novomaiorske, and from it the Russians have a good view of what’s happening in the valley and can direct artillery and tank fire. Novodonetske should be mentioned because the very first attack by the Ukrainians during the start of the counteroffensive, on June 4, was against this village (as well against Novodarivka on the same day). The Ukrainians had managed to get inside Novodonetske initially but were subsequently pushed back with major losses. The Ukrainians call the Novodonetske-Novomaiorske-Kermenchyk triangle “cursed”. Around Kermenchyk the 5th Tank Brigade (36th Army) is deployed, which for Mashovets has almost 100 tanks, more than half of the 186 tanks deployed in the sectors held by the 5/36/29th Armies. So far it has been marginally involved in actions. The tanks (T-80BV, T-72B3, T-62M) are hidden in the woods or farm sheds around their deployment area, occasionally the Ukrainians manage to catch and destroy some of them. The 131st Motorized Regiment of the 1st Corps and the 1466th Regiment of the Territorial Forces are also deployed in the area. [1/4, other parts below]

The area from Novodonetske to the Mokri Yaly River is held by the 37th Motorized Brigade (36th Army). This brigade has been accused by the “Military Informant” Telegram channel (and by Khodakovsky, commander of the “Vostok” Battalion, which is deployed in this area) of bearing serious responsibility for the fall of Urozhaine, having retreated from some positions and having some of its personnel drunk in the rear, requiring the intervention of marines from the Pacific Fleet to slow down the Ukrainians. It was also accused of stealing credits from the 40th Brigade for the defense of Novodonetske. It’s currently launching counterattacks towards Urozhaine, which are invariably repulsed. In a counterattack a few weeks ago it reportedly lost several T-80BVs and BMP-2s. After the capture of Urozhaine the Ukrainians had slightly advanced south-east in the direction of Kermenchyk, but the advances have stopped as no more efforts have been committed to this objective. In recent days the 37th Brigade would have attempted to improve its positions by attacking from Novodonetske towards the Shaitanka River but has been repulsed.

Recently the Ukrainians deployed in the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly the 58th Motorized Brigade and an additional battalion of the Presidential Brigade (one had already been there since this summer). The 58th has been repelling Russian counterattacks near Urozhaine. It’s a fresh brigade and has recovered after the deployments to Bakhmut in the fall and to Kreminna in the spring. Since late August I had noticed a sharp decrease in the activity of Ukrainian marines in the Velyka Novosilka sector, activity that seems to have disappeared in the second half of September, after the end of the actions towards Novomaiorske. I find it very likely that every (or almost) Marine unit has been withdrawn from this sector - elements should be in Kherson and others in the rear to recover, waiting for deployment to another sector. During the summer, the Velyka Novosilka sector had become the jurisdiction of the Ukrainian Marine Corps, but now it’s clear a major rotation has taken place. The 501st Battalion of the 36th Marine Brigade in early September had returned to Avdiivka, where it had supported attacks by the 53rd Mech Brigade in Opytne. The latest geolocations show it near Kherson. Rybar had also reported the 35th Brigade in Kherson; according to him, the train carrying vehicles that had been spotted by the Russians and hit by a (not extremely precise) missile near the city of Zaporizhzhia was carrying vehicles of the 38th Brigade headed to Kherson. Certainly the marines had large losses in the battles in the Velyka Novosilka sector (particularly the 35th and 37th Brigades). However, now the Ukrainian Marine Corps is certainly reorganizing. The most fresh brigade it’s the 38th - only its 503rd Battalion had been engaged in the battle for Urozhaine afaik (a “veteran” battalion, it had been reconstituted after Mariupol, where it defended the Ilyich Steel Works); the 1st Battalion of the 36th Brigade is undergoing training in the rear (with Sisu XA-185s); some battalions of the 37th Brigade are also training new recruits (who were recently sworn in) and have been seen training with AMX-10RCs.

The western bank of the Mokri Yaly, as far to Marfopil, is the responsibility of the 5th Army (EMD), which is deployed there, with the exception of the 57th Motorized Brigade, which is in the southern flank of Bakhmut (it was already providing support to the Wagner Group during this winter). The 60th Motorized Brigade, which suffered heavy losses in the battles for Makarivka and Staromaiorske, covers the area near Zavitne Bazhannya. To the west the entire 127th Motorized Division is deployed: the 394th Regiment covers the area near Pryyutne, the 143rd the area around Stepove, the 114th the area west of Novozlatopil. They are supported by the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Baltic Fleet: elements of this brigade are deployed near Zavitne Bazhannya and others near Novozlatopil (which is a very important village for the Russians in terms of roads and therefore logistics), and by the 34th Mountain Brigade (49th Army, SMD), which would have recently returned near Pryyutne. It had arrived there in late June and by early August had been moved to the sector of the 36th Army on the other side of the Mokri Yaly. Armored support is provided by the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Division. The fact that Mashovets stated that the 5th Tank Brigade has more than half the tanks deployed by the 5/36/29th Armies suggests that this regiment (which on paper should have 90ish tanks) is considerably under-equipped, after the losses of recent months.

The Ukrainian grouping that the 5th Army is facing should consist entirely of TDF elements. In early June, two new brigades were deployed in this area: the 23rd and 31st Mech Brigades. They managed to liberate Novodarivka and Rivnopil with the support of the 110th TDF Brigade (which knows the terrain very well, having been deployed in the area since late 2022), albeit with serious difficulties and losses. The 23rd had probably been withdrawn in July to recover and the 31st the following month. They were replaced (in addition to the 110th that was already there), by the bulk of the 127th and 128th TDF Brigades (the former arrived here from Bakhmut). Possibly elements of the 107th TDF Brigade are also in this area. Positional battles are ongoing in this sector, particularly near Pryyutne. There are fierce infantry clashes in the tree lines and trenches near this village. The Russians in September carried out a series of counterattacks and managed to retake territory to the north-east of the village. Recently the Russians have reportedly gained ground in the ravine area north-east of Pryyutne and their control of “Hill 170” is a topographical advantage that hinders Ukrainian successes in this area. In turn, further Russian attacks to improve positions north of Pryyutne would have failed.

It’s clear, in any case, that the Ukrainian offensive in the Velyka Novosilka sector is over and clearly the Ukrainian Army doesn’t have the capacity to sustain two large offensive efforts at the same time. Now the Ukrainian challenge is to try to make positional gains with as little effort as possible in order to keep the Russians engaged here to prevent them from deploying too many units elsewhere. But certainly both the Russians and the Ukrainians have and are moving some units from here to other sectors (particularly the Orikhiv sector). In late June the 247th VDV Regiment had arrived from Kherson, and suffered major losses in a series of counterattacks between Pryyutne and Staromaiorske. In early September this regiment was transferred near Verbove with the rest of the 7th VDV Division. Same for the 71st Motorized Regiment (42nd Division, 58th Army, SMD): it was a reinforcement unit to the 5th Army and fought in the Rivnopil area. In August it was transferred to the Orikhiv sector with the rest of the 42nd Division. In the second line around Staromlynivka there’s also the 136th Motorized Brigade (the only formation of the 58th Army outside the latter’s sectors of deployment and the most fresh inside the 58th Army); last week Mashovets wrote that it would soon be transferred to the Orikhiv sector - the day before yesterday artillery actions from this brigade were reported there in fact.

Rybar had reported, during the beginning of the Russian offensive in Avdiivka last week, the presence of the Ukrainian 31st Mech Brigade around Avdiivka. That may have been the only correct thing he wrote about Avdiivka: the Ukrainians reported artillery actions from this brigade in the area. It had apparently been sent to Avdiivka as an operational reserve since before Russian actions began, though. A Leopard 2A5/6 was reportedly spotted around Avdiivka yesterday (according to the Russians, it remains to be seen whether it was actually in Avdiivka or not). If so, it’s possible that elements of the Ukrainian 21st Mech Brigade may have been transferred there. The Russians are celebrating because the Ukrainians could have been forced to transfer reserves here - too bad that they, from Svatove, (where btw the 21st Mech Brigade was spotted previously) would have transferred most (if not the whole) of the 2nd Army of the Central MD, with its 21st Motorized Brigade (yes, same number as the other UA formation) sent near Avdiivka. I think the 21st Mech Brigade could be an operational reserve in case of problems along the northern flank of Avdiivka, which is probably the most delicate one in case of a Russian breakthrough along the railway line. Also Rybar reported the recent deployment of the 23rd Mech Brigade in the Orikhiv sector. I have no confirmation yet but find this quite credible, as it’s now the only active axis of the Ukrainian offensive in the South. It’s possible that this brigade had spent the last few months recovering and is now going into action for the second time. [2/4, other parts below]

The Polohy sector, from the Haichur River to the Konka River, is covered by the 35th Army (EMD), perhaps the most fresh Russian formation at the moment. It’s supported by the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla, deployed in the defense area of the 69th Covering Brigade. The Ukrainians have never attempted serious offensive actions in this sector, except for a minor attack towards Marfopil in June. Recently from this village there was an attack by the Russian 64th Motorized Brigade towards Chervone, advancing a few hundred meters into the grey area. This is the first offensive action by a formation of this army, although we are talking very minor stuff. The 38th Motorized Brigade, deployed in the western part of the Polohy sector (up to the Konka River) was also reportedly recently involved in some fighting in the direction of Bilohirya. In the Polohy sector the Ukrainians deployed the 102nd and 108th TDF Brigades and the 27th Brigade of the National Guard (a protection brigade, comparable to a TDF one). The Russians have never touched elements of the 35th Army to reinforce the Orikhiv or Velyka Novosilka sectors, because they evidently fear a Ukrainian attack on Polohy and know that it’s a key sector to prevent the Ukrainian advance towards Tokmak, and reflexively the Ukrainians have never “bothered” the 35th Army except, of course, with artillery and deep fires…

The Konka River, represents, again, the boundary between the jurisdiction of the Eastern and Southern MDs. The line from here up to the Dnipro River in Vasylivka are covered by the 58th Army (SMD). Before the counteroffensive began this was among the largest Russian formations and perhaps the one in the best shape. The Ukrainians therefore chose a difficult direction to attack, which in fact proved very hostile. For spacing reason I avoid a recap of events; as for the latest tactical developments, unfortunately I don’t have much new positive news to share. Since the second half of September the Ukrainians have had no new major tactical developments as the Russians continue to pour in new reserves and do three things: counterattacking, counterattacking, counterattacking. With heavy human and material losses for them, but they nevertheless manage to avoid losing ground.

The 247th VDV Regiment (7th Division) in Verbove would have managed to counterattack and recover some trenches at the entrance to the village. Verbove is also defended by the 100th Reconnaissance Brigade (58th Army), several BARS detachments and the “Moscow” Battalion, associated with the 106th VDV Division and made up of VDV-trained football hooligans. The commander of the 247th Regiment was KIA, reportedly thanks to a DPICM. The Ukrainians are very pleased with the latters and indeed would like to have more of them. The delivery of these and the deployment in late August of the 148th Artillery Brigade (embedded in the Air Assault Forces - it fields Caesar SPHs) in the rear of Orikhiv is allowing high volumes of fire, which are the primary cause of Russian losses. To it we have to add the artillery battalions of the maneuver brigades; the 44th and 47th Artillery Brigades are also in this sector.

On the other hand, counterattacks by the 108th VDV Regiment above Verbove and the 56th VDV Regiment (both of them from the 7th Division) under Novopokrovka (in an attempt to tighten the Ukrainian salient) have failed, and the Ukrainians likely retook local initiative. These days a video was shared showing 7 POWs from the 108th VDV Regiment - remember that this is a war in which it’s relatively rare to see even one squad-sized unit taken as POW at one time, especially from an elite unit. Instead, in this area, between Verbove and Novopokrovka (no, not Novoprokopivka - they are two different settlements located in the same sector), the Ukrainians reportedly made some progress in the past two weeks, it was the work (I believe) of the 118th Mech Brigade. One problem, however, is that the Russians (just to the south of where these advances have occurred) still control a series of heights that dominate the entrance to Verbove from the north-west. A number of still-operational detachments of the 22nd Spetsnaz GRU Brigade are likely concentrated there, providing support to Russian units in the area. In the area near Mala Tokmachka the Ukrainian 33rd Mech Brigade should be deployed, which has a battalion of Leopard 2A4s. In June it had been involved in major battles (suffering losses) but since then this brigade seems to have almost disappeared. Perhaps the Ukrainians have made some internal reorganizations and are preparing to bring it back into action.

The famous “Hill 166” is defended by the 387th Regiment of the Territorial Forces, and in recent weeks the 237th VDV Regiment (76th Division) has also arrived in this area. The deployment of these units has prevented the Ukrainians from being able to secure the height (they came close to it during August afaik). The area around this Hill was greatly reinforced. Otherwise, the Ukrainians are having some minor tactical successes south-west of Verbove. The Ukrainian brigades engaged around Verbove are the 82nd Air Assault Brigade (which had substantial losses in September), lately most of the actions are the work of the 71st Jager Brigade. The Kara-Dag and Chervona Kalyna Brigades of the Offensive Guard (the latter entered the field during the recent weeks) are also engaged in this area. In theory there should also be the 78th Air Assault Regiment in the area.

The 201st Regiment of the 2nd Corps supported by the BARS-3 Detachment reportedly launched a counterattack in the last few days, half way between Novoprokopivka and Verbove, pushing back the Ukrainians a few hundred meters in that area and driving them away from the dirt road between the two settlements. I think the Ukrainian 116th Mech Brigade is in that area. I have no idea what happened to the 210th Motorized Regiment of the 2nd Corps that was between Novoprokopivka and Verbove, it has not been mentioned for more than a month. In theory, the 136th Motorized Brigade (58th Army) should soon be moved between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. A video of a POW of the 15th Motorized Brigade (2nd Army, CMD) taken in the Zaporizhzhia region came out last week. I have no evidence that this brigade was moved here from Svatove though. But certainly the other two brigades of the 2nd Army were also moved (one near Adviivka and one near Volnovakha). One formation that was very important in the first months of the counteroffensive was the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet. It was withdrawn at the end of August because it had completely lost combat capability due to losses. It had been moved first to Tokmak and now it would be refitting in Kherson. I think there’s just one company left in the Orikhiv sector, at most.

The Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade in the last month has been pushing towards Novoprokopivka. Here, even more than elsewhere, the lines are very fluid: the Ukrainians sometimes get as far as the first settlements in the village, then Russian counterattacks occur, then new Ukrainian attacks, and so on… The Ukrainians would have recorded some small tactical advances to the north-west of the settlement. Novoprokopivka is defended by a large Russian grouping: to the west of the village there is whatever is left of the 1441st Regiment of the Territorial Forces, in the village itself there is the 70th Regiment of the 42nd Division, which was brought here in late August from Novopokrovka. Also in the village the 1152nd Regiment of the Territorial Forces is deployed. It arrived in late August to replace the 1430th Regiment, which was withdrawn after very heavy losses. Just east of the village the 71st Regiment of the 42nd Division is active and the 1429th Regiment was redeployed to the first line: it likely received new recruits after the heavy losses it experienced during the summer when it defended Robotyne along with the 291st Regiment of the 42nd Division. The latter regiment also suffered ugly losses but would have been restaffed and has now been moved, as I got it, between Nesterianka and Kopani. In the latter area there are also two regiments of the 76th VDV Division (104th and 234th). In any case, the 42nd Division is in bad shape in terms of operational capability.

On the Ukrainian side, between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka the 47th Mech Brigade is still active, although the offensive potential of this brigade is greatly reduced, along with the Skala Battalion. Just to the west there’s the 65th Mech Brigade, which has participated in all actions around Robotyne since the beginning of the counteroffensive. The Spartan Brigade of the Offensive Guard should also be in this area. A counterattack by elements of the 76th VDV Division from Kopani against Robotyne would not only have failed, but the Ukrainians would have managed to achieve some positional gains towards the first settlement… The largest Ukrainian successes in October occurred near Kopani and Nesterianka in fact. A few advances were recorded between the two villages and another also to the north-west of Nesterianka. At least one battalion of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade was brought here. Perhaps the 117th Mech Brigade, so far little involved, is also in this area. According to Rybar, the 23rd Mech Brigade would also have arrived there and a rifle battalion from the 1st Tank Brigade would be involved in the actions. Ukrainian tank brigades don’t hold sectors as stand-alone formations but have been “unpacked” among battalions to provide armored support to other brigades, while their mech/rifle battalions act as reinforcing units. Some battalions of the 3rd and 4th Tank Brigades for instance were deployed along the north-eastern front while the 1st Brigade is active in the sector of Velyka Novosilka and apparently, Orikhiv. [3/4, last part below]

In any case, it’s clear that the Ukrainians intend to widen the salient. Their apparent choice to do so westward is in my opinion a correct decision, as by doing so they avoid focusing towards Verbove at the tactical level (which has been very hard to seize) and at the operational level, they avoid running into the 35th Army. In any case, in order to approach Tokmak, I’m personally convinced that the current salient must be widened in a very large way, either to the east or to the west. In the short term, taking the heights between Novoprokopivka and Verbove is crucial for the Ukrainians. It’s clear that this sector will be the grave of many units in both sides and that the battle will come down to which side has the greater reserves to bring into the “game”.

Just to the west of Neresterianka, the Kamyanske sector begins. It’s covered by the 19th Motorized Division (58th Army). Between Myrne and Nesterianka there should be the bulk of the 503rd Motorized Regiment, elements of which had been sent near Robotyne in August, along with a battalion of the 4th Military Base (58th Army), that has completely disappeared from any radar in the last month and a half. We’ve reached the Dnipro. In Kamyanske the 429th Motorized Regiment, supported by several BARS detachments, is deployed. Between the two regiments of the 19th Division (which is small, compared to other divisions that have three motorized and one tank regiment) there is the 125th Motorized Regiment of the 1st Corps that serves to increase the density of forces along the frontline. Also in the area there should be the 45th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade (formally part of the VDV), another formation that had been engaged during the first months of the Ukrainian attacks against Robotyne, and which was later transferred to a nearby but quieter sector after suffering major losses. As for the Ukrainians, in Kamyanske there is the bulk of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade. They had successes in June, liberating Pyatykhatky, but since then the front has pretty much stabilized apart from a few minor positional advances for the Ukrainians (to the east of Kamyanske) and in fact has become somewhat “quiet”.

Along the Dnipro, in the rear of Kherson Oblast and in Crimea, 77k Russians are deployed (of which just 12k in Crimea). The Russian grouping in this sector is large and is receiving reinforcements to compensate for formations sent to fight along the southern front. In August the new 70th Motorized Division of the new 18th Army (SMD) was deployed to the second line behind the Dnipro, it fields three motorized regiments, one tank and one artillery regiment. In Crimea, the new 47th Motorized Division of the 40th Corps of the 18th Army would be being formed. The new 144th Motorized Brigade (40th Corps) would also be finishing training in Crimea. Their deployment to Kherson will most likely be a prelude to the departure to the southern front of the part of the 49th Army (SMD) still in Kherson: the 205th Motorized Brigade and two battalions (I think) of the 7th Military Base. Also in Kherson there’s the 22nd Corps, which includes the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade and the 127th Reconnaissance Brigade (this existing corps has been embedded in the 18th Army). Also in the area there’s the 80th Motorized Brigade of the Arctic Fleet along with their “compatriots” of the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade. The 55th Mountain Brigade and the 74th Motorized Brigade of the 41st Army (CMD) from Kreminna, perhaps, could have arrived in Kherson. The grouping is reinforced by several regiments of the Territorial Forces and a detachment of the 10th Spetsnaz GRU Brigade.

Honestly, I have always been very bearish on the prospects of a serious crossing of the Dnipro by the Ukrainians - something extremely over-hyped by some Twitter pundits, perhaps because it’s perceived to be more engaging than the tactical analyses of what is going on around Robotyne. There are two possible types of crossing: limited, infantry-only, with hit-and-run attacks with the aim of annoying the Russians as much as possible, forcing them to leave reserves in the area and trying to intercept and hit with artillery potential reinforcements; or, what some people seem to be dreaming of, a large-scale mechanized crossing. The first thing it’s right and just, and that’s indeed what the Ukrainians are doing. But from these actions, no operational consequences arise. The second thing would be, in my humble opinion, madness. Even around Nikopol, despite the fact that the Kakhovka Reservoir has dried up, the river still flows there, and the Dnipro is a river of a significant flow and width. There’s a reason the Ukrainians have, understandably, never attempted anything like that.

The Ukrainians for months have been holding some positions in the marshy islands of the Dnipro Delta, between the course of this river and the Konka. These days elements of the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade are reported to have crossed the Konka River (not the one that passes through Polohy, another one!) and took positions in the eastern bank of the Konka, even reaching the gates of Pishchanivka and Poyma, before returning along the Konka River. Some recon groups would have been active in the area of Pidstepne, as well as on the Bilohrudyi Island towards the mouth of the Dnipro. In general, most of the marshy islands in the Delta are no man’s land. In any case, units without mechanized/armored support are unlikely to be able to seize these villages let alone maintain them, but such actions are still be welcome if they annoy the Russians and cause losses to them. Along the Dnipro there are several TDF brigades (123rd, 126th, perhaps even the 121st and the 124th) and the 11th Brigade of the National Guard, as well as several elements of the Marine Corps. [4/4]

Thank you all for reading!

Thank you! Yes, it has already been suggested to me. For any further analysis in the future I will consider doing that!

Thank you, great work!

Thank you! The sources are the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets, Ukrainian think tank Centre for Defence Strategies, DeepState, several Telegram channels (e.g. WarArchive is great for geolocalizations), both Ukrainian and Russian ones.

Yes, that’s right. The person in question (“just bulldoze the Russian trenches”) is one of the most prominent downplayers of Russian capabilities - one would expect that at this point in the war it would have been understood that this doesn’t help Ukraine at all. It’s fine to be optimistic, it’s even necessary to some extents, but that doesn’t mean losing rationality altogether. I have no idea what reports talk about “200 helicopters” available to the UAF like he wrote.

In any case the news that elements of the Ukrainian Marine Corps were concentrating in Kherson during the recent weeks is true - the Russians (Rybar) have been talking about it for a while and geolocations have confirmed the presence of Ukrainian marines along the Dnipro. There would be elements of two/three brigades, probably one battalion from each. For example, in regards to the 36th Brigade we know there’s the 501st Battalion in Kherson, but other battalions from this brigade are in the rear, training. A large part of the Marine units are recovering after the battles in the Velyka Novosilka sector. Deploying elements of a brigade to a sector doesn’t mean the formation is 100% deployed. I think they will be used to occupy positions along the marshy islands that are present after the Nova Kakhovka dam up to the mouth of the Dnipro and for raids over the eastern bank of the Konka River (you have to pass that river to get to the mainland, not the Dnipro).

The Russian grouping along the Dnipro, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, consists of 65k men, 495 tanks, 963 AFVs and 649 artillery guns and MLRS. This doesn’t sound like something to write off. According to Ukrainian sources units of the 70th Motorized Division are being deployed to settlements along the Konka River and there are rumors that elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment are being deployed along the Dnipro too, in addition to the formations already there. I don’t know why people think it would be easy to liberate these settlements and especially that they think it would be feasible to try an advance inside the left-bank of Kherson Oblast when, even if the Russians withdrew for some reasons, there would still be enormous logistical challenges. Except for people like Chuck Pfarrer for whom there are Ukrainian pontoon bridges over the Dnipro, I guess.

Anyway, hopefully the Ukrainian raids will succeed in inflicting as many Russian casualties as possible, which along with forcing the Russians to concentrate reserves in the area, is imho the actual goal of these actions.