The news of the recent days is that the Italian Army is going to buy 21 M142 Himars systems that will join the 21 M270s already in use, which will be upgraded to the A2 standard.
There are more and more indications that most of the formations of the Central Military District are being moved to the Avdiivka sector.
Almost two weeks ago, Ukrainian military observer Mashovets was reporting the arrival of the 21st Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army (CMD) in the Novoselivka Druha area (northern flank of Avdiivka). At the same time, he wrote of the probable deployment of the 30th Motorized Brigade of the same army in the Volnovakha area.
Today, many new Russian KIAs/MIAs were published on the “Poisk in UA” Russian Telegram channel and the first ones from Avdiivka are arriving. https://t.me/poisk_in_ua
On October 10, a Russian woman had spoken to her husband (a soldier of the 15th Motorized Brigade, the last of the three maneuver formations of the 2nd Army); he had stated that he was in the Svatove sector. On October 14, the man’s fellow soldiers informed his wife that her husband had been killed during a combat operation in the direction of Avdiivka.
We don’t know about the actual level of involvement in offensive operations of these brigades. For example, we reportedly know that a Storm Z detachment embedded in the 21st Motorized Brigade has been involved. Some mechanized elements may be partaking in the assaults, although for the Ukrainians their involvement is still limited.
Identifying the involvement of a given unit based on the gear deployed at this point of the war is difficult - we are no longer in March 2022: today many units have mixed MBT/IFV models. For instance we know BTR-82s are fielded by elements of the 2nd Army, but we don’t know how many have been assigned to units of the 1st Corps. At the same time, I wonder if the T-80BVMs spotted during the assaults against Avdiivka belong to the 1st Corps or, more likely, to units of the Central MD, which had been confirmed to have received a batch of them.
Anyway, the entire 2nd Army should be around Donetsk. But there are indications that elements of the 41st Army (CMD) are being deployed there too. A soldier from the 74th Motorized Brigade of this army was declared MIA on October 5 in the Pesky/Vodyane area, southern flank of Avdiivka. A few days ago this post was published, showing a soldier from the 1007th Regiment of the Territorial Forces (attached to the 55th Mountain Brigade of the 41st Army) complaining, stating that only 12 men from his company were left and they were deployed in the direction of Avdiivka. This may be a suggestion that the 55th Brigade is in the area. In early October a Russian milblogger had spoken of the deployment of these two brigades from the 41st Army to Kherson from Kreminna, but apparently they might… have stopped halfway.
The 2nd Army is not at 100% of its capabilities, having been heavily engaged, from July to September, in the battles in the area near Novojehorivka and Raihorodka, in the Svatove sector. Apparently the transfer of the entire army took place in the last 2 weeks. The 41st Army covers (covered?) the Kreminna sector and during the spring and summer was engaged in heavy battles there - the 90th Tank Division (41st Army) should still be in that sector. The 35th Motorized Brigade of the same army, on the other hand, completely disappeared from any radar during 2023.
Let’s have a recap of the formations deployed in the Avdiivka sector. On the Russian side, in addition to the formations from the Central MD (elements of the 2nd Army on the northern flank and of the 41st Army on the southern flank), on the southern flank there are the 9th Marine Brigade (no, it has nothing to do with the Russian Naval Infantry), the 1st Motorized Brigade, part of the 110th Motorized Brigade and the 111th Motorized Regiment of the 1st Corps along with the 1004th and 1487th Regiments of the Territorial Forces. The “new” 57th Motorized Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Corps would also being deployed in the area and in reserve there would be the 117th and 87th Motorized Regiments of the 1st Corps. Additional armored support is provided by the 504th Tank Regiment of the Territorial Forces - several MIAs from this unit have already been published. In the northern flank there are the 114th Motorized Brigade and the 277th Rifle Battalion of the 1st Corps, the “Yugra” Battalion and the 1454th Regiment of the Territorial Forces. There were also rumors of the presence of elements of the 106th VDV Division: unconfirmed for now, if that was the case I assume it’s a small-sized unit as the division is very busy in Bakhmut.
As for the Ukrainians, on the southern flank there are the 53rd Mechanized Brigade, the 59th Motorized Brigade and elements of the 56th Motorized Brigade (the latter, I believe, came as reinforcements); the 3rd SOF Regiment, the Kyiv Police Regiment, several separate rifle battalions along with the 110th Mech Brigade are on the eastern flank; on the north-eastern flank there is the bulk of the 116th and 129th TDF Brigades as well as elements of the Presidential Brigade. There’s also the 31st Mech Brigade (or, most probably, elements of it), it was likely in the rear of Avdiivka even before the offensive began, however. A few days ago the Russians had posted a video of a Leopard 2A5/6 claiming it was from the Avdiivka area. Initially I had thought it might be a Leo 2A5 from the 21st Mech Brigade, but apparently today Bradleys were spotted in the northern flank of Avdiivka. Someone mentioned the potential deployment of elements of the 47th Mech Brigade. Theoretically there could be another brigade that has received, for example, a battalion of Bradleys, so we still don’t have definitive confirmation of the presence of the 47th. But apparently the soldier the tweet mentions is a soldier from the 47th Brigade. Until a while ago, part of the 47th was definitely around Robotyne and another part was being trained in the rear; the deployment of elements of this brigade to Avdiivka would be very strange in my opinion. A rotation of this brigade could have been needed, but to be deployed in a sector that has become as hot as Avdiivka right now is certainly an interesting thing. We’ll see what’s “boiling in the pot”, when I have other news I’ll keep you informed. Bradleys were spotted in action near Verbove a few days ago but there were unconfirmed rumours that the 71st Jager Brigade (which is active there) may have received them.
In any case, the Russians have been pouring far more reserves around Avdiivka to support the offensive of their 1st Corps than the Ukrainians have had to do (so far) to support their Avdiivka garrison. At the same time, the deployment of the bulk of the Central MD to Avdiivka could also mean that in the short term the Russians don’t need large additional reserves in the Orikhiv sector - initially it was thought that the 41st Army was supposed to be deployed there in fact. At the moment, as far as I have been able to verify, it seems that the Russians are restaffing the units of the battered 42nd Motorized Division (58th Army) with “wholesale” manpower from the 1st and 2nd Corps and are deploying the 136th Motorized Brigade (58th Army) there, a fairly fresh formation.
Let’s recall that Mashovets wrote of three options for a Russian autumn/winter offensive: Kupyansk, Lyman and Avdiivka. I feel to rule out the second one, seeing how the Russian grouping in Kreminna has weakened. The first one is stalling, in the last week the Ukrainians have managed to halt the small Russian advances and even recover some ground, also thanks to the introduction of the Kraken Regiment in the sector. I’m personally convinced that the Russians will focus on Avdiivka, which is a city with a strong political value for them. Probably the original plan was to break through the Ukrainian first lines with elements of the 1st Corps and use those of the Central Military District as a second echelon to close the pincer around the city. The plan is going badly - the Ukrainians are truly doing their utmost best. But the Russian actions will hardly end here - realistically a very strong push will continue in the coming weeks, accompanied by massive artillery and FABs usage, with the aim of gradually gaining small positional gains and trying to create attrition among the Ukrainian garrison. I believe the battle will still be long.
In the last week the area up to the railway has been a grey area, but confirming the arrival of the Russians to the railroad isn’t a very positive development. Still, the railway itself is a very strong defensive line and passing it, especially establishing positions west of it, will not be easy.
What Russian unit(s) now cover the Svatove direction?
In the Svatove sector to my knowledge (from Novoselivske to Nesvke) there are elements of the 1st Tank Army (the 4th Tank Division and the 27th Motorized Brigade), of the the 11th Corps (the 7th Motorized Regiment), of the 20th Army (the 3rd Motorized Division); it appears that elements of the 67th Motorized Division of the new 25th Army are being deployed along the southernmost part of this sector (Nesvke, Novosadove, Terny). The 25th Army, once fully deployed (we are likely several weeks away from that, at least), will be the largest formation on the Svatove-Kreminna line and will join the 144th Motorized Division and (for the time being) the 90th Tank Division which are deployed in the Kreminna sector.
Just so we have a summary, what is the order of battle for 2nd and 41st Army?
2nd Army: 15th, 21st and 30th Motorized Brigades, 385th Artillery Brigade + other support units.
41st Army: 35th and 74th Motorized Brigades, 55th Mountain Brigade, 90th Tank Division, 120th Artillery Brigade + other support units. In theory it includes the 201st Military Base as well, elements of this formation were deployed in Ukraine but likely in form of reinforcements to other units of this army and not as a stand-alone formation, afaik.
My understanding is that LDPR elements were responsible for the initial attacks on Avdiivka. Is this still the case?
Yes, on the first day there were only brigades from the 1st Corps as far as I understood. Probably after the initial days there has been more and more involvement by elements of the Central Military District.