October 02, 2024 - Larelli
A (long) update on Russian losses, on their new formations and units planned to be created, and a commentary on their system of replenishment of losses.
September 15, 2024 - Larelli
Taking this opportunity to share these accounts from Serhiy Bolotnikov, a football journalist, famous on Ukrainian YouTube.
September 14, 2024 - Larelli
For the Ukrainian side, prior to May 2024, released POWs were entitled to 90 days of paid leave, and then had to return to duty (if their physical condition allowed that).
September 12, 2024 - Larelli
I will share an analysis by the Ukrainian military blogger Bohdan Myroshnykov on the UAF command structure and its problems.
August 31, 2024 - Larelli
Here we are for the second part of my tactical analysis on the evolution of the front in Ukraine during the last month, following the first.
August 29, 2024 - Larelli
An update on the tactical evolution of the front in Ukraine during the current month.
August 24, 2024 - Larelli
It is worth noting, for those who don’t follow these matters directly, that the area of operations of the 3rd Assault Brigade is the middle Zherebets valley, which falls within the administrative boundaries of Luhansk Oblast.
August 18, 2024 - Larelli
We don’t have reliable recent data regarding the Ukrainians; I think the Russians are ahead in terms of infantry, but not that disproportionately.
August 16, 2024 - Larelli
Those battalions are assigned to a given brigade as a temporary operational subordination, they don’t become part of it formally and permanently, so it wouldn’t be correct to count them as part of the brigade, and I am sure OP is not doing that.
August 14, 2024 - Larelli
That also matches statements from Russian sources that work is underway in the rear for 90 platoon strongholds and a 40 km long anti-tank ditch.
August 12, 2024 - Larelli
It’s a grey area of the law. In theory it’s possible, but once the subpoena has been delivered, the TRC can refuse to allow the possibility of signing a contract, as in fact they do in many cases.
August 09, 2024 - Larelli
New quick update on the order of battle of the offensive operations in Kursk Oblast, after yesterday’s.
August 08, 2024 - Larelli
Brief update on the order of battle of the offensive operations in Kursk Oblast (without mentioning the advances and the current status from a tactical point of view), in addition to what I wrote yesterday in response to u/Usual_Diver_4172.
August 07, 2024 - Larelli
I am on vacation this week - I am following the situation normally, but I don’t have time for detailed write-ups.
July 31, 2024 - Larelli
Mandatory update on the matter of one-time payments upon signing contracts in Russia.
July 29, 2024 - Larelli
Numerous brigade commanders have been removed over the recent weeks. Some deserved it, others did not.
July 28, 2024 - Larelli
After five long days since the news that the city of Moscow was offering a 1,9 million Rubles bonus upon signing a contract for serving in the “SMO”… this bonus has already become 2,1 million Rubles.
July 27, 2024 - Larelli
Some news regarding the structure of the Russian Armed Forces. Apparently, the 1st and the 2nd Army Corps (i.
July 24, 2024 - Larelli
Answering to u/Velixis too - this issue was brought to light on Monday by relatives of soldiers of the 31st Mechanized Brigade, and it was then made known to the public yesterday thanks to DeepState (as far as I know, they will write a detailed report on this later).
July 23, 2024 - Larelli
Considering that residents of the city of Moscow don’t seem on average very interested in contract service, the most important thing is to know whether (as Meduza claims) this figure is reserved only for the residents of the city or it’s for all Russian citizens.
July 22, 2024 - Larelli
I tend to agree, although it’s far from being a flawless assault tactic (but after all, which one is such, in this war?
July 18, 2024 - Larelli
I did a very quick search and the findings confirmed what I was expecting: in the 2024 draft budgetary plan voted by Germany’s cabinet in July 2023, the same amount approved for 2025 now (4 billion euros) had been allocated for Ukraine.
July 11, 2024 - Larelli
Another very interesting post from this small Ukrainian Telegram channel, “Mannerheims son” - if I understand correctly run by a battalion chief of staff.
July 10, 2024 - Larelli
The 24th Mechanized Brigade of the UAF, which is currently defending Chasiv Yar, is the first unit to have officially formed an unit manned by convicts, who since May have been able to volunteer (except the ones guilty of particular serious crimes).
July 09, 2024 - Larelli
An update on the news of the past 10 days along the front line in Ukraine.
July 08, 2024 - Larelli
Today I will post an update on the mobilization in Ukraine as well as on Russian losses; tomorrow a review on the news along the front line - I would have liked to publish it today but after that the post would have been too long.
July 04, 2024 - Larelli
If I have time I will do a write up later.
July 02, 2024 - Larelli
According to ENTSOG data, Hungary no longer imports Russian gas either directly from Ukraine or from Austria, but they import it via Serbia, thanks to Turkstream.
June 30, 2024 - Larelli
Here we are for the second part of my tactical analysis on the evolution of the front in Ukraine during June, following the first.
June 29, 2024 - Larelli
New update on the tactical evolution of the front in Ukraine during June.
June 28, 2024 - Larelli
Bear in mind that the action at the Antonov Airport was undertaken by a handful of companies from the 31st VDV Brigade and the 45th Spetsnaz VDV Brigade, which in any case were not totally annihilated as at least a part of their servicemen retreated to the woods near the airport during the evening of February 24.
June 20, 2024 - Larelli
In addition to the deal you mentioned, it had also been reported that South Korean 155mm shells had actually been delivered to the UAF after a refurbishment in the US.
June 18, 2024 - Larelli
According to Ukrainian reports from last winter, Russia has the capacity to send between 100 and 150 tanks per month to the front.
June 17, 2024 - Larelli
Former Ukrainian POWs have the right to be discharged from service after the new mobilization law took effect on May 18.
June 13, 2024 - Larelli
In the wealthier federal subjects, the signing bonus was over 1 million Rubles as early as last fall; with a portion paid by private sponsors (probably with some pressures) - such as construction companies from St.
June 12, 2024 - Larelli
Mobile Fire Groups are also deployed by the maneuver brigades of the UAF (including TDF) and of the National Guard (though they mostly equipped with Browning M2s or KPVs mounted on pick-up trucks or ZU-23s).
June 11, 2024 - Larelli
Wanted to post this later and mention you, but your version is much better!
June 10, 2024 - Larelli
As I had announced yesterday, this morning DeepState published the report on the events occured in April around Ocheretyne.
June 09, 2024 - Larelli
Over the last days Ukrainska Pravda published a couple of very interesting interviews, in Ukrainian.
June 01, 2024 - Larelli
Here we are for the second part of my analysis on the tactical situation of the front line in Ukraine, after the first yesterday.
May 31, 2024 - Larelli
An update from the front in Ukraine. Today I will analyze the sectors from Kharkiv to Siversk.
May 24, 2024 - Larelli
A few news regarding command roles for the Ukrainian and the Russian side.
May 23, 2024 - Larelli
Following the second-reading approval of the law about the enlistment of convicts by the Verkhovna Rada and Zelensky’s signature on May 17, the first requests from inmates for getting parole in exchange for signing a contract to serve in a military unit are reaching Ukraine’s district courts.
May 20, 2024 - Larelli
Ruslan Mykula (one of the founders of DeepState) last week warned to watch carefully Kozacha Lapan (Kharkiv Oblast, but to the west of the Kharkiv River), and Bilopillia (Sumy Oblast, north-west of the regional capital); while for the observer Mashovets two potential directions could be Sudzha –> Sumy or Grayvoron –> Velyka Pysarivka (Sumy Oblast).
May 16, 2024 - Larelli
A quick update to what I wrote yesterday - then I’ll post the analysis from DeepState about the beginning of the events in the Kharkiv sector and another from an Ukrainian Telegram channel on the problems of how the construction work of fortifications is carried and managed.
May 15, 2024 - Larelli
An update on the numerical size of the Russian Groups of Forces deployed along the front, according to datas published by the Ukrainian military observers Mashovets and Kovalenko over the past three weeks.
May 12, 2024 - Larelli
Interesting comment from an Ukrainian Telegram channel which follows the issues about the structure of the Armed Forces in response to the announcement of the creation of 10 new brigades (so far the new 155th Infantry Brigade has been created).
May 11, 2024 - Larelli
I am gathering additional infos on the matter; if I am able to, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow I will give an update.
May 10, 2024 - Larelli
In addition to the answers you have already received, the main issue is that there seems to be a taboo on the use of conscripts from the military service in active combat operations outside national borders.
May 09, 2024 - Larelli
I have no data to answer this. It should be considered in first place that they are not used against attacking infantry (like it often happens with mortars), but against Ukrainian-held lines, which means that the probability of bodies (in case the attack is deadly) being recovered immediately or thereafter is considerably higher (which matters in terms of MIA notices).
May 08, 2024 - Larelli
This morning the bill on the enlistment of convicts was passed on the second (and final) reading by the Verkhovna Rada - with 279 Yes, 11 abstentions and 40 not voting.
May 07, 2024 - Larelli
A clarification: the estimate of 470k men did not include the Russian forces deployed along the state border (Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts), which numbered 33k men according to Ukrainian estimates back in March.
May 05, 2024 - Larelli
Short answer: all the better Ukrainian brigades are fighting. It generally happens (for Russian brigades/regiments as well) that 1/2 maneuver battalions are in the tactical rear and the others are fighting.
May 04, 2024 - Larelli
Quick update on the front in Ukraine. I will mention the sectors where there are actually updates.
May 01, 2024 - Larelli
A few updates on the order of battle in Ukraine and on the frontline situation.
April 29, 2024 - Larelli
Quick update on the tactical situation of the front in Ukraine over the past few days.
April 28, 2024 - Larelli
I recommend being very careful about using Mediazona datas to come to these conclusions - not because it’s unreliable, but in general graphs based on the date of death rather than on the date of publication, although very interesting for research purposes, underestimate truly a lot the number of those who have died in action in the recent weeks (but also months), because of the time lag in which obituaries are published, particularly for those who are classified as MIA for a long time.
April 27, 2024 - Larelli
In addition to what has already been written on the matter, Ruslan Mykula (the other co-founder of DS) reported that the Russians attacked at the junction between two battalions of the 115th Mechanized Brigade, amplifying coordination issues.
April 24, 2024 - Larelli
Two updates today. The first comment will be devoted to frontline news and the second to mobilization news.
April 23, 2024 - Larelli
Thank you for reporting that. Small clarification on the directions: Slobozhansky is the area along the state border in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which coincides with most of the territory covered by the Russian Group of Forces “North” - up to the Oskil River, more or less.
April 22, 2024 - Larelli
The 152 Mechanized Brigade is also expected to be converted into an infantry brigade.
April 17, 2024 - Larelli
I take the opportunity to try to answer to the question below in the thread by u/Velixis about Ocheretyne and to write about the developments that have occurred over the last week in both the Avdiivka and Bakhmut sectors.
April 15, 2024 - Larelli
It’s basically the merger of Groups of Forces “Bryansk”, “Kursk” and “Belgorod” (where the 18th Motorized Division of the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet has been recently deployed) together with the 6th CAA of the Leningrad Military District, previously under the Group of Forces “West”.
April 13, 2024 - Larelli
It would actually be massively difficult to understate the importance of German direct and indirect aid to Ukraine’s ability to wage war since the second half of last year.
April 11, 2024 - Larelli
Here we are for the second part of my analysis on the tactical situation of the front line in Ukraine and on the events of the last month, after the first.
April 10, 2024 - Larelli
Time for a new update about the tactical situation of the front in Ukraine and on the events of the last month.
April 09, 2024 - Larelli
Servicemen of the new mechanized brigades (from 150th to 154th) have been seen training with (7,62mm) AKMs, but it’s unclear whether it was just for training or it’s going to be their standard assault rifle.
April 06, 2024 - Larelli
A very interesting thing is that, as you wrote, several Russian sources report that this follows the failure of the plan to create Wagner-related units inside the Rosgvardia, which was to carried out by Prigozhin’s son - while the official version reports that the vacancies in the Rosgvardia had been fully filled.
April 05, 2024 - Larelli
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia produced 420 thousand shells in the first two months in the year.
April 04, 2024 - Larelli
Work of the 11th VDV Brigade (confirmed by Kriegsforscher). The Russians seem to be having serious issues in advancing along Road 0504 over the recent weeks.
April 03, 2024 - Larelli
I collected the datas on the numerical extent, in terms of personnel and equipment, of the “Groups of Forces” on which the operational and strategic management of the Russian grouping deployed in Ukraine is organized.
April 02, 2024 - Larelli
I was about to post this! According to this analysis in Ukraine there are up to 273 thousand men aged 25 and 26 who could be summoned.
April 01, 2024 - Larelli
Clément Molin concluded his recent research into the progression of fortification works by the Ukrainians over the recent months and shared the results.
March 31, 2024 - Larelli
Kriegsforscher, a well-known UAV recon operator who works in the Avdiivka sector, claimed that the largest armored attack of the war took place yesterday, from Tonenke in the direction of Umanske, with 36 tanks and 12 BMPs.
March 30, 2024 - Larelli
Today has been announced that the 100th TDF Brigade of the Volyn Oblast has been reformed as the 100th Mechanized Brigade, under the Ground Forces.
March 27, 2024 - Larelli
Suriyak is simply copying Motopatriot’s updates (not for the first time).
March 24, 2024 - Larelli
I think both of you are right. One of Ukraine’s main goals is definitely to reduce the amount of missile carriers in the Black Sea, although it’s true that actually the biggest limitation at the moment is the number of available missiles.
March 22, 2024 - Larelli
A few updates on the manpower issue in Ukraine. On the problems and what is being done.
March 20, 2024 - Larelli
I personally think that Russia’s net gain in terms of manpower is somewhat worse than 15 thousand men per month right now, although there is always the option of a new mobilization wave.
March 19, 2024 - Larelli
Really good job by Germany, there are more and more premises for which 2024 can be a decent year for Ukrainian artillery.
March 18, 2024 - Larelli
The number of identified Russian losses remains at historically very high values, a sign that what I had written about two weeks ago was not a backlogs-driven number but a serious upward trend, exacerbated by the arrival of obituaries of the fallen during the very bloody final part of the battle of Avdiivka (note that they have stopped counting in a separate category the low number of Wagnerites who are still discovered as KIA nowadays and the number is now integrated among the regular KIAs).
March 14, 2024 - Larelli
An update on the order of battle in Ukraine. In the Serebrianka Forest (Kreminna sector), elements of the 272nd Motorized Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army of the Moscow Military District have gone into action, per the Ukrainian observer Mashovets.
March 13, 2024 - Larelli
Small self-correction to specify: not the relatives of the disabled people of the first and second category (and of people with diseases) in general, but those recognized as caregivers to them.
March 11, 2024 - Larelli
With the removal of Zaluzhny (an opponent of this plan) and the appointment of Syrsky as Commander in Chief, and the growing need for manpower, the rumors of recent weeks about the mobilization of Ukrainian convicts have become a bill, the first reading of which is expected to be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada next week, according to the Minister of Justice.
March 09, 2024 - Larelli
Here we are for the second part of my analysis on the tactical situation of the front line in Ukraine and on the events of the last month, after the first.
March 08, 2024 - Larelli
New update about the tactical situation of the front in Ukraine and on the events of the last month.
March 04, 2024 - Larelli
Kudos to France, I hope that in the future Italy will enjoy this level of transparency in making donations public too, the German way!
March 03, 2024 - Larelli
Today the Telegram channel “Poisk_in_UA” (the largest Russian channel for collecting the names of their KIAs/MIAs/POWs) published the report on the number of Russian servicemen identified as KIAs or POWs during the week from February 26 to March 3.
March 01, 2024 - Larelli
A few updates on the issue of mobilization in Ukraine.
February 29, 2024 - Larelli
Quick update on the order of battle in Avdiivka. The 1st and 2nd Assault Battalions (or elements of them?
February 28, 2024 - Larelli
To my understanding they exclude the residents of the illegally annexed oblasts (except Crimea), while for example a volunteer from Russia proper who died in 2022 in the ranks of e.
February 26, 2024 - Larelli
Russian media are reporting that Putin today signed the decree on the new organizational division of the Russian Armed Forces.
February 25, 2024 - Larelli
On the shells for Ukrainian artillery. According to Der Spiegel, the 120k 122mm shells that Germany recently pledged to Ukraine were found in Bulgaria, have already been paid for and will arrive “as quickly as possibile”.
February 24, 2024 - Larelli
Beyond the cringy arrows, that Russian armored vehicles were geolocated inside the village of Robotyne today, is true.
February 22, 2024 - Larelli
The 59th brigade specifically seems to have retained an unusually high percentage of its original complement (60-70%).
February 19, 2024 - Larelli
To add to what you’ve said, the Russians had reported months ago that a large number of BTR-70s were being removed from depots and assigned to units.
February 18, 2024 - Larelli
Good analysis, but I would also mention the Kreminna sector. It seems that some elements of the 1st GTA are being redirected there from Kupyansk and additional units of the 25th CAA are being brought into battle, in support of the offensive actions of the 20th CAA in the direction of the Zherebets River.
February 17, 2024 - Larelli
It seems that during the night the Ukrainians entirely left the last two strongholds of Avdiivka - the Coke Plant and the 9th District.
February 16, 2024 - Larelli
According to Ukrainian estimates on this matter, 40/50 KABs per day are being used against Avdiivka over the last week, including 20 per day on the Coke Plant.
February 15, 2024 - Larelli
Technical research for those interested in the structure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
February 14, 2024 - Larelli
The whole point of the US strategic petroleum reserve is somewhat questionable in my opinion, after the shale oil revolution of the mid 2010s that turned the country from the world’s largest net importer of crude oil to a net exporter (here for historical datas).
February 12, 2024 - Larelli
There are conflicting reports from who I consider to be credible pro-Ukraine analysts, where some say that the Russians have greater capacity to replace its losses and build up new units
February 11, 2024 - Larelli
I don’t speak Ukrainian so the stuff I get only goes so far, but from what I’m understanding the appointment of these new faces on UAF Command, including several brigade commanders (the current one from the 59th Motorized and the commanders during ATO/JFO years of the 54th Mechanized and 58th Motorized) has been met with favor by Ukrainians on social media and has provided a breath of optimism after the frosty spell of Syrsky’s appointment.
February 10, 2024 - Larelli
DeepState has clarified what has happened over the last month and a half in the area around Tabaivka and Krokhmalne, between Kupyansk and Svatove.
February 08, 2024 - Larelli
Here we are for the second part of my tactical analysis of the front in Ukraine, after the first.
February 07, 2024 - Larelli
New update on the tactical situation of the front in Ukraine.
February 05, 2024 - Larelli
I will do a write up, even tomorrow if I will be able to.
February 04, 2024 - Larelli
This morning the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets published the most recent estimate, by Ukrainian military intelligence, of the Russian grouping deployed in Ukraine.
February 03, 2024 - Larelli
A batch of BTR-50s had been received by the 114th Motorized Brigade of the 1st Corps and they have been regularly used during mechanized attacks in Avdiivka’s north-east flank since the beginning of the offensive.
January 31, 2024 - Larelli
At the level of tactical-operational goals, I had written about that here a few days ago.
January 28, 2024 - Larelli
DeepState yesterday afternoon, confirming Russian rumors, had written that Tabaivka had been taken by the Russians, while in last night’s update it wrote, as reported by u/hatesranged, that the Russians have not yet occupied the settlement and there is fighting in the village area and just outside.
January 26, 2024 - Larelli
By early February the Verkhovna Rada is supposed to vote on the mobilization law and renewal of martial law.
January 25, 2024 - Larelli
I was looking forward posting that later and tagging you! 1000 is a very large number and way higher than expected, even if it includes the command, CASEVAC, and mortar carrier versions.
January 24, 2024 - Larelli
It looks like that the pipe is even wider than the 80 centimeters originally stated.
January 23, 2024 - Larelli
The Ukrainian military observer Mashovets a few months ago speculated about three possible options as an objective for a Russian offensive during 2024.
January 22, 2024 - Larelli
A large Ukrainian Telegram channel wrote about the reason, according to their informations, for the Russian breakthrough in the area of the former restaurant “Tsarska Ohota”.
January 20, 2024 - Larelli
Quick update on the stuff that wasn’t clarified (as we had not details yet) in my yesterday’s post about the tactical developments in Ukraine.
January 19, 2024 - Larelli
Update from the front, after four weeks since I wrote the last one.
January 17, 2024 - Larelli
Great news - Ukraine is going to need new 155mm howitzers over the current and above all the next year.
January 16, 2024 - Larelli
I want to bring up an issue that will be increasingly important in the future: new Ukrainian trenches and fortifications.
January 14, 2024 - Larelli
I agree. That said, there are Russian Telegram channels that hope it was a mistake of their own AD, as the fact that Ukrainians may have had the capabilities for pulling such a thing is considered far worse.
January 10, 2024 - Larelli
A mistake that many international journalists make, especially when dealing with quite “byzantine” countries like Italy, is not being able to distinguish between statements aimed at domestic audiences and those aimed at foreign partners.
January 09, 2024 - Larelli
After watching a few videos I got more information about an interesting topic, that of “refuseniks” in the Ukrainian Army and how this is being addressed.
January 08, 2024 - Larelli
On the occasion of both the end of 2023 and having reached the figure of 40 thousand Russian military deaths in Ukraine confirmed by Mediazone, and my interest in the spatial distribution of the fallen, I created an Excel chart with Russian deaths by federal subject (oblast, krai…) per 100 thousand residents.
January 07, 2024 - Larelli
This is an extremely complicated question to answer and in fact one of the most debated.
January 03, 2024 - Larelli
Until deployments towards Ukrainian borders began in March/April 2021, the Russians had: the 14th Corps of the Arctic Fleet and the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade very close to the border with Norway in Murmansk Oblast; the 6th CAA in Leningrad Oblast near Finland (okay, technically not NATO back then); the 11th Corps of the Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad (which in the years leading up to the invasion was massively reinforced with the creation of the 18th MRD) along with the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade; the 76th VDV Division in Pskov Oblast (hence close to the Baltic countries).
December 23, 2023 - Larelli
I will try to give a Christmas update on the tactical evolution of the front during the recent weeks.
December 20, 2023 - Larelli
An important issue I have been reflecting on lately, as far as recruitment is concerned, is morale, which is also and especially influenced by future prospects.
December 19, 2023 - Larelli
KilledInUkraine has recorded 3309 fallen Russian officers in Ukraine. We have to add, as you mentioned, that Russia had units like Wagner’s Project K in the past and Storm Z/V detachments today with a very limited share of officers compared to the troops (vs the standard of the regular motorized infantry), and these are the units that have borne a very large share of the casualties over the past year.
December 16, 2023 - Larelli
PMC Wagner is no longer active as a separate branch, outside the contained group of instructors (a few hundreds) deployed in Belarus training their army.
December 14, 2023 - Larelli
This is not the first case; I remember there were protests over the same thing in Zaporizhzhia a few months ago for instance.
December 12, 2023 - Larelli
Afaik Oryx, in order to avoid double counting, doesn’t count the losses of vehicles captured and used by the Ukrainians of which we can be sure they were actually captured from the Russians (e.
December 10, 2023 - Larelli
I had made a map to the partial order of battle and the location of deployment of the various units.
December 09, 2023 - Larelli
Let’s just remember that Naalsio’s datas include losses in the Marinka and Novomykhailivka sectors (anyway the losses there are just a small fraction of the total).
December 08, 2023 - Larelli
we have seen Russia claim to have captured a Leopard before and at Rabotino some russian soldier inspected a bunch of Leopard
December 06, 2023 - Larelli
Yet another (short, in this case) account on the problems during the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, by an UAV operator from the 47th Mechanized Brigade, reported by the “WarArchive” Telegram Channel.
December 05, 2023 - Larelli
Some news on the industrial side of the war in Ukraine.
December 02, 2023 - Larelli
Today the Ukrainian military observer Alexander Kovalenko wrote about this issue:
November 30, 2023 - Larelli
They had announced this during the summer. They are reportedly creating five new high-power artillery brigades, one per military district.
November 29, 2023 - Larelli
I will try to give an update of the tactical evolution of the front in recent weeks.
November 28, 2023 - Larelli
There are rumors in Greek medias that the US is going to acquire 50k 105mm artillery shells, 20k 155mm shells and 5k 203mm shells from the Greek Army’s stockpiles (totaling $47 million) in order to ship them to Ukraine.
November 27, 2023 - Larelli
November 2023, by estimates of GS UAF, should mark the all-time high in Russian human casualties.
November 26, 2023 - Larelli
LiveUAMap has been completely unreliable during 2023. There’s no evidence at all that the Russians have taken Hill 240 (in that corner formed by the junction of the two rail lines), nor that they control all that territory shown as theirs north and south of Stepove.
November 24, 2023 - Larelli
WW1 France had over 300k boys turning 18 in each year of the war.
November 23, 2023 - Larelli
AICS being mentioned here is strengthening, in my opinion, the option KF-41 Lynx for Italy’s new tracked IFV.
November 22, 2023 - Larelli
Regarding the topic of mobilization and recruitment in Ukraine. This month a bill was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada (by a parliamentarian from Zelensky’s party, if I understood correctly).
November 21, 2023 - Larelli
Yep - not (yet?) the entirety but almost, speaking of its two “legacy” armies (2nd and 41st).
November 17, 2023 - Larelli
Hi! As for the Ukrainian Marine Corps, while elements of all four of its brigades are in Kherson Oblast, it’s only partly involved in the actions along the Dnipro.
November 15, 2023 - Larelli
I’ve been doing some digging on Russian Telegram channels (thanks, Google Translate) about a matter I’m very curious about and it seems that the conditions for contract soldiers are gradually improving.
November 14, 2023 - Larelli
(translation via DeepL) The interviewee’s answers (call sign “Fritz”) are in italics.
November 13, 2023 - Larelli
In May there was a video with a train carrying T-64As (and T-90As) in Russia, probably towards a plant that would upgrade and restore them.
November 10, 2023 - Larelli
Today the Ukrainian military observer Alexander Kovalenko published an interesting article on the issue of Russian glide bombs.
November 06, 2023 - Larelli
Seems like the battalion of M1A1 Abrams Ukraine received has entered service in a tank brigade, judging by the emblem on the buckle.
October 31, 2023 - Larelli
This morning the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets published the most recent estimate (by Ukrainian military intelligence) of the Russian grouping deployed in Ukraine.
October 26, 2023 - Larelli
Food for thought on Avdiivka. Last Friday Putin visited the Southern Military District HQ in Rostov-on-Don, where he also met with Gerasimov.
October 23, 2023 - Larelli
The news of the recent days is that the Italian Army is going to buy 21 M142 Himars systems that will join the 21 M270s already in use, which will be upgraded to the A2 standard.
October 20, 2023 - Larelli
Third and final (long) tactical analysis of the frontlines in Ukraine and their order of battle.
October 16, 2023 - Larelli
Second (and long) part of my tactical analysis of the frontline in Ukraine.
October 13, 2023 - Larelli
If anyone is still interested about the war in Ukraine (just kidding!
October 11, 2023 - Larelli
Rybar lost the plot altogether yesterday. There’s not the slightest indication that the Russians passed the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway, which is an important Ukrainian defense line and whose crossing is essential in order to attempting to flank the city from the north-east.
October 10, 2023 - Larelli
Quantification of the Russian grouping deployed in Ukraine by Ukrainian military intelligence (the estimates were released by the Ukrainian military observer Mashovets this morning, I added the estimates from the same source from 1 and 6 months ago for a comparison):
September 30, 2023 - Larelli
The batch of Zuzanas that is being produced for Ukraine is part of a contract signed a while ago and it will be paid for thanks to Germany/Denmark/Norway - perhaps the new government could stop the transfers of gear and ammunition from the SK Army’s stocks, but I don’t think they will go as far as breaking contracts where fellow EU countries are involved.
September 28, 2023 - Larelli
Several medias yesterday spread the news that Wagner had “returned to Bakhmut”.
September 25, 2023 - Larelli
Today our beloved DeepState published a summary of the progress of the war in the main sectors of the front during the summer.
September 21, 2023 - Larelli
Yeah, it may even be an understatement. Ukraine began the conflict with the largest and most extensive ground-based air-defense network in Europe after Russia and they had good know-how in its employment.
September 17, 2023 - Larelli
It was confirmed by VDV-affiliated Telegram channels. The 31st VDV Brigade was among the first formations to be transferred to Bakhmut during the first half of May in conjunction with Wagner’s withdrawal and was basically tasked with fixing the mess created by the 72nd Brigade (3rd Corps).
September 16, 2023 - Larelli
We have confirmation of the Russian rumours that the commander of the 247th VDV Regiment, Lieutenant Colonel (unless he was promoted to colonel recently) Vasily Popov, has been killed.
September 15, 2023 - Larelli
An update on the new Russian formations. The sources are Ukrainian military observer Mashovets, Ukrainian think tank Centre for Defence Strategies, reports by Thord Are Iversen (former Norwegian officer who keeps track of the new Russian formations) and Azeri analyst Jahangir Arasli, who, thanks to his knowledge of the language, unearths many local Russian news articles about the new formations.
September 11, 2023 - Larelli
Update on the order of battle of (mostly) the Tokmak sector.
September 08, 2023 - Larelli
They were the cannon fodder of the Russians before the advent of the Wagner’s convivts and the Storm Z units.
September 04, 2023 - Larelli
The new Ukrainian brigades have about 2000 men according to David Axe, including the 47th, the 82nd, the 22nd for instance etc.
September 01, 2023 - Larelli
While we are waiting to see how things will evolve in the Tokmak direction, fierce clashes are ongoing as we speak in the Svatove sector, specifically in the heights between Novojehorivka and Serhiivka.
August 28, 2023 - Larelli
Ukrainian military observer Mashovets this morning confirmed that the 104th Regiment of the 76th VDV Division has been deployed to the south-east of Novoprokopivka, which by the way seems to be the most critical area in the sector right now.
August 25, 2023 - Larelli
The 1st Tank Brigade as far as I had read a few weeks ago would have two operational tank battalions (with T-64BVs); it had never been brought up to 100% capabilities after the losses during the Battle of Chernihiv, in which it was essential in blocking the advance of the Central Military District towards Kyiv.
August 24, 2023 - Larelli
An update on the new Russian formations after my previous one, now that more news have been published.
August 21, 2023 - Larelli
The acquisition of Leopards has been confirmed by the Italian government.
August 19, 2023 - Larelli
Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets this morning posted on his Telegram channel an estimate from the Ukrainian military intelligence of the Russian grouping from the Dnipro River (in Vasylivka) to Volodymyrivka (near Vuhledar).
August 18, 2023 - Larelli
The new 43rd Mechanized Brigade, the last to receive the insignia, is active in the Svatove sector, exactly in the area where the Russians managed to advance by about 4/5 kilometers around July 20 before being, largely, driven back.
August 13, 2023 - Larelli
I remember that Lieutenant Colonel, probably from the LPR Army, who was captured during the Kharkiv counteroffensive back in September and was mistaken for Sychevoi by several “sources”.
August 12, 2023 - Larelli
Mashovets is one of my favorite sources, I have been following him for a while despite not speaking Ukrainian!
August 11, 2023 - Larelli
Great considerations. The only thing I would add is that imho the Russian plan around Svatove of the last month was much more important than what is assumed and actually quite well thought out.
August 09, 2023 - Larelli
I recommend this interview by openDemocracy with a sergeant and a private of the newly formed 41st Mechanized Brigade as well as with Reynolds from RUSI.
August 08, 2023 - Larelli
Very interesting read, thank you! The 37th Brigade should have good officers.
August 07, 2023 - Larelli
A CV90 was reportedly disabled and damaged - that would be the second confirmed loss of such vehicle.
August 04, 2023 - Larelli
Hi and thanks for posting the update. The 25th Airborne Brigade is interesting.
August 03, 2023 - Larelli
According to British Intelligence, Russia has begun staffing the newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District.
August 02, 2023 - Larelli
In the South? They deployed the 118th Mechanized Brigade in the Orikhiv sector to the east of Robotyne, which had a rather rough start (Ukrainian sources complained of a lack of tactical competence on the part of officers).
August 01, 2023 - Larelli
I was reading this morning from Ukrainian sources that several battalions from the Russian 126th Coastal Defence Brigade, 80th Arctic Brigade, and 205th Motorized Brigade would be ready to be transferred to the frontlines of the South, following the 127th Reconnaissance Brigade that has been moved in the past few days.
July 30, 2023 - Larelli
Strv 122s, CV90s and Rosomaks with a 30mm autocannon were seen in a column.
July 29, 2023 - Larelli
I think Novodonetske may be about to fall and I’m also upbeat about Pryyutne, but Kermenchyk may not be going to be easy, it sits on high ground and the Russians are holding back their local operational reserve (5th Tank Brigade and 131st Motorized Regiment) which is going to be deployed when the front line moves near this village.
July 27, 2023 - Larelli
Most of the new brigades have such equipment anyway. New toys like Leopards and Bradleys are nowhere near enough to equip the majority of new units, and Ukraine has decided to concentrate, for instance, the entire first batch of Bradleys in a single brigade (47th) that most likely has got the Leopard 2A6s as well.
July 26, 2023 - Larelli
The video of the ambush on VDV troopers (likely from 83rd Brigade) on a BMP-2 that appeared a couple of days ago and which was geolocated at the beginning of the settlement nucleus in Klishchiivka (coming from the south), would be the work of the Lyut Brigade of the Offensive Guard.
July 25, 2023 - Larelli
Not to say that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is going perfectly and not referring to you personally, but all the talks about the population of lost or liberated towns has always been a fallacious argument in what is, to all intents and purposes, a war of attrition and in which it is, if anything, the defensive lines, the topography and the extent of the new operational depth associated with the conquest of a given territory the things that actually matter.
July 24, 2023 - Larelli
There are some positive news today: in the Bakhmut sector the Ukrainians have reportedly captured the last heights right to the west of Klishchiivka and are making significant progress towards Andriivka, a couple of kilometers further south (note that the Ukrainians fear a Russian counterattack in this area); in the Svatove sector the “bridgehead” (I would really not use this term for anything regarding the Zherebets River - in the course near Svatove the river is half a meter deep and 10 meters wide) has stabilized, the advance should be about 4 kilometers.
July 23, 2023 - Larelli
Pretty dangerous situation, but too early to make conclusions.
July 21, 2023 - Larelli
Pakistan doesn’t produce 152mm shells as the Pakistani Army doesn’t use such calibre.
July 20, 2023 - Larelli
Using the new thread to answer the interesting question from u/Duncan-M who on yesterday’s thread had asked if I had any idea about the brigades from the 10th Operational Corps not yet deployed to the front and about the Ukrainian brigades who may be currently in the strategic reserve.
July 19, 2023 - Larelli
Ukraine will still have access to the small river ports at the mouth of the Danube such as Reni and Izmail, and since the ships reach the Black Sea through a channel entirely in Romanian territory, Russia will not be able to do anything.
July 18, 2023 - Larelli
Embarrassing as it may look at first reading, it’s probably necessary.
July 17, 2023 - Larelli
Just now I saw this video and the Scooby-Doo vans made me think back to an interview from April I had read some time ago and that was never discussed.
July 15, 2023 - Larelli
Isn’t the 127th Division around Velyka Novosilka? I assumed the sector from Robotyne to the Dnipro River was the responsibility of the 19th Division.
July 14, 2023 - Larelli
the Iran-Iraq war took 8 years to resolve (I think more people should compare this war to the Iran-Iraq war)
July 13, 2023 - Larelli
Yesterday I was flagging how the M-55s originally issued to the 47th Brigade were allegedly transferred to the 67th Brigade, which has been moved to Kreminna sector.
July 12, 2023 - Larelli
I assumed that the original and long-term proposal by Rheinmetall (albeit difficult and possibly to be developed after the war), with an investment of 200 million euros for the plant, was for the production of KF51, with the latter being the spearhead MBT of post-war Westernized Ukraine; now this seems to be the initial phase of the project and will start by cooperating with Ukroboronprom in Transcarpathia to refurbish Fuchs from German stock.
July 11, 2023 - Larelli
To my knowledge the seizure of Kherson and the right-bank of the Dnipro as well as Mariupol was the work of the Southern Military District (+ the rest of VDV outside of Kyiv); the sector between Svatove and Kreminna as you mentioned is in the hands of the Central MD, which Lapin in fact led until October, and the Western MD is between Kupyansk and Svatove (I believe that quite a few units of the 1st GTA are still under-equipped after last year’s losses, although the best tanks available are supposed to go to them).
July 10, 2023 - Larelli
Afaik, the K2 has never entered the Italian Army’s radar, unlike, for example, the Abrams or even the Merkava, which were discarded due to their weight, price, location of production (domestic production is an essential requirement), different operational deployment scenarios and, linked to this, lack of common views on developing a joint project for a new tank with Israel, which had been discussed in the past.
July 04, 2023 - Larelli
The 14th Brigade was one of the brigades of the Kharkiv counteroffensive and has been the garrison of the Kupyansk sector basically since the city was liberated.
June 29, 2023 - Larelli
The (now 9) brigades of the Offensive Guard are generally either name changes of former National Guard operational purpose brigades (among them the former 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade, the protectors of Hostomel) or expansions of NG operational purpose regiments (such as Safari/Tsunami or Azov); in two other specific cases of a former TDF battalion and a border guard detachment.
June 28, 2023 - Larelli
The notorious RUAG-owned 96 Leopard 1s were never part of the Swiss armed forces, but of the Italian Army.
June 27, 2023 - Larelli
Great points. Popasna was a very intense urban battle which lasted for weeks.
June 22, 2023 - Larelli
Afaik Pakistan (POF) produces 203mm shells, and they are already a significant (indirect) supplier to Ukraine of 155mm and 122mm shells and 122mm rockets for Grads too.
June 20, 2023 - Larelli
If I read correctly it mentions Bilohorivka, indeed where the 81st Brigade has been stationed since October/November.
June 19, 2023 - Larelli
So nice to see the 128th Brigade in good shape and back in action.
May 23, 2023 - Larelli
A reflection that I consider important after yesterday’s article on the 28th Brigade (a victim not only of the strength of Wagner’s attack in itself, but also of a rushed deployment after the hard battles of Kherson - same with the 128th) and Zelensky’s visit to Marinka today, where he met the Ukrainian marines who have been defending the sector for months.
May 02, 2023 - Larelli
Hi everyone, I would like to raise a question that I don’t know if it has ever been addressed and I think this is the best sub for it.